Tex Schramm
DAL · Composite skill θ = -0.71 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.45 to +0.04
Evidence: 71 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 1980–1988 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.41
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1988DALPresident/GM throughout; 30-year tenure ended Feb 1989
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | #11 | Michael Irvin | OFF | +6.35 |
| 1984 | #152 | Eugene Lockhart | DEF | +2.62 |
| 1980 | #105 | Kurt Petersen | OFF | +2.16 |
| 1985 | #76 | Crawford Ker | OFF | +1.51 |
| 1981 | #173 | Ron Fellows | DEF | +1.19 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | #18 | Mike Sherrard | OFF | -4.58 |
| 1983 | #50 | Mike Walter | DEF | -4.16 |
| 1984 | #110 | Steve DeOssie | DEF | -2.88 |
| 1988 | #94 | Dave Widell | OFF | -2.77 |
| 1986 | #150 | Stan Gelbaugh | OFF | -2.45 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 71 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1988 | #11 | Michael Irvin | OFF | +1.34 | +1.81 | — | +3.14 | — | +2.36 | +0.92 | +6.35 |
| 1984 | #152 | Eugene Lockhart | DEF | +1.11 | +1.72 | — | +1.30 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | +2.62 |
| 1980 | #105 | Kurt Petersen | OFF | +1.13 | +1.15 | — | +1.06 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +2.16 |
| 1985 | #76 | Crawford Ker | OFF | +0.83 | +1.19 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +1.51 |
| 1981 | #173 | Ron Fellows | DEF | +0.96 | +0.51 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +1.19 |
| 1982 | #137 | Phil Pozderac | OFF | +0.92 | +0.47 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.09 |
| 1980 | #162 | Timmy Newsome | OFF | +1.53 | +0.46 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.20 | -0.10 | +1.01 |
| 1984 | #113 | Steve Pelluer | OFF | +0.47 | +0.36 | — | +0.61 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | +1.00 |
| 1982 | #53 | Jeff Rohrer | DEF | +0.89 | +0.34 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.84 |
| 1986 | #140 | Thornton Chandler | OFF | +0.64 | +0.21 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1981 | #81 | Glen Titensor | OFF | +0.86 | +0.16 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.20 | -0.09 | +0.48 |
| 1987 | #180 | Kevin Sweeney | OFF | +0.07 | +0.26 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.36 |
| 1987 | #95 | Kelvin Martin | OFF | +0.74 | -0.16 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.26 | -0.14 | +0.27 |
| 1987 | #39 | Ron Francis | DEF | +0.48 | -0.09 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| 1983 | #162 | Reggie Collier | OFF | -0.07 | +0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1987 | #12 | Danny Noonan | DEF | +0.42 | +0.05 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| 1986 | #185 | Johnny Holloway | DEF | -0.02 | -0.05 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1983 | #189 | Chris Schultz | OFF | +0.06 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 1985 | #114 | Herschel Walker | OFF | -0.38 | -0.37 | — | -0.06 | — | +1.36 | -0.52 | -0.02 |
| 1985 | #178 | Karl Powe | OFF | -0.03 | -0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1986 | #100 | Max Zendejas | ST | -0.61 | +0.08 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1987 | #124 | Everett Gay | OFF | -0.12 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1984 | #81 | Fred Cornwell | OFF | -0.02 | -0.34 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1985 | #184 | Jim Herrmann | DEF | -0.41 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.25 |
| 1981 | #53 | Doug Donley | OFF | +0.19 | -0.25 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| 1985 | #103 | Robert Lavette | OFF | +0.15 | -0.19 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1988 | #151 | Scott Secules | OFF | -0.32 | -0.07 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.29 |
| 1982 | #193 | Bill Purifoy | DEF | -0.44 | -0.07 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.32 |
| 1984 | #137 | Norm Granger | OFF | -0.19 | -0.11 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1986 | #74 | Mark Walen | DEF | -0.10 | -0.28 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1985 | #144 | Kurt Ploeger | DEF | -0.42 | -0.12 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.36 |
| 1984 | #40 | Victor Scott | DEF | +0.22 | -0.51 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.37 |
| 1983 | #135 | Chuck McSwain | OFF | -0.19 | -0.13 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1981 | #191 | Ken Miller | DEF | -0.48 | -0.11 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1980 | #80 | James Jones | OFF | +0.51 | -0.47 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.39 |
| 1981 | #137 | Danny Spradlin | DEF | -0.07 | -0.29 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1982 | #165 | Charles Daum | DEF | -0.50 | -0.12 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.41 |
| 1988 | #178 | Owen Hooven | OFF | -0.40 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1981 | #163 | Vince Skillings | DEF | -0.54 | -0.16 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1984 | #193 | Ed Martin | DEF | -0.50 | -0.13 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1980 | #189 | Lester Brown | OFF | -0.52 | -0.07 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1982 | #109 | Monty Hunter | DEF | -0.43 | -0.28 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1983 | #108 | Chris Faulkner | OFF | -0.68 | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1987 | #68 | Jeff Zimmerman | OFF | +0.12 | -0.50 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.54 |
| 1985 | #17 | Kevin Brooks | DEF | -0.03 | -0.29 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.57 |
| 1985 | #44 | Jesse Penn | DEF | +0.10 | -0.57 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.57 |
| 1986 | #158 | Lloyd Yancey | OFF | -0.47 | -0.28 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1987 | #151 | Joe Onosai | OFF | -0.47 | -0.28 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1984 | #166 | Joe Levelis | OFF | -0.48 | -0.29 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1985 | #157 | Matt Moran | OFF | -0.48 | -0.29 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1986 | #33 | Darryl Clack | OFF | +0.34 | -0.54 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.66 |
| 1982 | #101 | Brian Carpenter | DEF | -0.67 | -0.30 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 1982 | #143 | Ken Hammond | OFF | -0.57 | -0.37 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 1985 | #119 | Matt Darwin | OFF | -0.57 | -0.39 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.78 |
| 1983 | #77 | Bryan Caldwell | DEF | -0.71 | -0.36 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.85 |
| 1981 | #26 | Howard Richards | OFF | +0.21 | -0.87 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.28 | -0.13 | -1.00 |
| 1981 | #91 | Scott Pelluer | DEF | -0.80 | -0.43 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.05 |
| 1988 | #67 | Mark Hutson | OFF | -0.70 | -0.55 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.05 |
| 1982 | #81 | Jim Eliopulos | DEF | -0.81 | -0.45 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.07 |
| 1983 | #23 | Jim Jeffcoat | DEF | +1.32 | +0.74 | — | +0.11 | — | -3.04 | -1.56 | -1.16 |
| 1980 | #133 | Gary Hogeboom | OFF | -0.25 | -0.64 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.18 | -0.03 | -1.24 |
| 1981 | #108 | Derrie Nelson | DEF | -0.95 | -0.55 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.30 |
| 1982 | #25 | Rod Hill | DEF | -0.64 | -0.95 | — | -0.72 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -1.62 |
| 1984 | #25 | Billy Cannon | DEF | -0.85 | -0.82 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.63 |
| 1988 | #41 | Ken Norton Jr. | DEF | -0.72 | -0.05 | — | -0.32 | — | -1.35 | -1.02 | -1.89 |
| 1980 | #78 | Bill Roe | DEF | -1.08 | -1.04 | — | -0.95 | — | -0.22 | -0.12 | -2.18 |
| 1986 | #150 | Stan Gelbaugh | OFF | -1.42 | -1.05 | — | -1.14 | — | -0.14 | -0.03 | -2.45 |
| 1988 | #94 | Dave Widell | OFF | -1.18 | -1.25 | — | -1.27 | — | -0.35 | -0.22 | -2.77 |
| 1984 | #110 | Steve DeOssie | DEF | -0.38 | -1.57 | — | -1.46 | — | -0.53 | -0.38 | -2.88 |
| 1983 | #50 | Mike Walter | DEF | -1.83 | -1.73 | — | -1.69 | — | -0.85 | -0.53 | -4.16 |
| 1986 | #18 | Mike Sherrard | OFF | -1.86 | -1.82 | — | -1.72 | — | -1.32 | -0.71 | -4.58 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.