Brian Gaine
HOU · Composite skill θ = -0.14 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.84 to +0.56
Evidence: 8 mapped picks across 1 draft classes, 2018–2018 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.17
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2018–2018HOU
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #98 | Jordan Akins | OFF | +0.43 |
| 2018 | #211 | Jordan Thomas | OFF | +0.08 |
| 2018 | #103 | Keke Coutee | OFF | -0.01 |
| 2018 | #68 | Justin Reid | DEF | -0.39 |
| 2018 | #214 | Peter Kalambayi | DEF | -0.47 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #80 | Martinas Rankin | OFF | -0.94 |
| 2018 | #222 | Jermaine Kelly | DEF | -0.64 |
| 2018 | #177 | Duke Ejiofor | DEF | -0.63 |
| 2018 | #214 | Peter Kalambayi | DEF | -0.47 |
| 2018 | #68 | Justin Reid | DEF | -0.39 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 8 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2018 | #98 | Jordan Akins | OFF | +0.51 | -0.13 | +0.01 | +0.15 | +0.73 | -0.20 | -0.09 | +0.43 |
| 2018 | #211 | Jordan Thomas | OFF | -0.10 | +0.08 | -0.28 | +0.12 | +0.28 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2018 | #103 | Keke Coutee | OFF | -0.23 | -0.15 | +0.01 | -0.07 | +0.38 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| 2018 | #68 | Justin Reid | DEF | -0.14 | +0.35 | +0.43 | -0.19 | -0.39 | -0.37 | -0.24 | -0.39 |
| 2018 | #214 | Peter Kalambayi | DEF | +0.36 | -0.28 | -0.43 | -0.12 | -0.55 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2018 | #177 | Duke Ejiofor | DEF | -0.32 | -0.24 | -0.89 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 2018 | #222 | Jermaine Kelly | DEF | -0.54 | -0.19 | -0.76 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2018 | #80 | Martinas Rankin | OFF | -0.49 | -0.60 | -0.44 | -0.41 | -0.32 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.94 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.