Tom Heckert
CLE · Composite skill θ = -0.58 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.22 to +0.06
Evidence: 27 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2010–2012 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.05
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2010–2012CLE
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #38 | T.J. Ward | DEF | +1.28 |
| 2011 | #102 | Jordan Cameron | OFF | +1.07 |
| 2011 | #150 | Jason Pinkston | OFF | +0.63 |
| 2011 | #21 | Phil Taylor | DEF | +0.44 |
| 2011 | #248 | Eric Hagg | DEF | +0.30 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #85 | Colt McCoy | OFF | -3.13 |
| 2010 | #7 | Joe Haden | DEF | -3.01 |
| 2012 | #3 | Trent Richardson | OFF | -2.04 |
| 2011 | #37 | Jabaal Sheard | DEF | -1.90 |
| 2012 | #100 | Travis Benjamin | OFF | -1.20 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 27 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #38 | T.J. Ward | DEF | -0.18 | +0.33 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +2.74 | -0.26 | -0.18 | +1.28 |
| 2011 | #102 | Jordan Cameron | OFF | +0.25 | +0.34 | +0.88 | +0.26 | +0.99 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.07 |
| 2011 | #150 | Jason Pinkston | OFF | +0.07 | +0.31 | +0.93 | +0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.63 |
| 2011 | #21 | Phil Taylor | DEF | +0.07 | +0.35 | +0.25 | +0.16 | +0.39 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.44 |
| 2011 | #248 | Eric Hagg | DEF | +0.19 | +0.09 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 2012 | #245 | Trevin Wade | DEF | -0.05 | -0.04 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 2012 | #247 | Brad Smelley | OFF | -0.36 | -0.08 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2011 | #59 | Greg Little | OFF | +0.38 | +0.66 | +0.91 | +0.11 | -1.54 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| 2010 | #177 | Carlton Mitchell | OFF | -0.05 | -0.09 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2012 | #87 | John Hughes | DEF | +0.39 | -0.25 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.35 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| 2011 | #124 | Owen Marecic | OFF | -0.02 | -0.01 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| 2010 | #186 | Clifton Geathers | DEF | -0.42 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 2012 | #205 | Billy Winn | DEF | -0.28 | -0.29 | +0.51 | -0.23 | -0.40 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.40 |
| 2012 | #120 | James-Michael Johnson | DEF | -0.45 | -0.12 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2012 | #204 | Emmanuel Acho | DEF | -0.52 | -0.17 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2012 | #160 | Ryan Miller | OFF | -0.33 | -0.35 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2010 | #59 | Montario Hardesty | OFF | -0.24 | -0.27 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.55 |
| 2010 | #160 | Larry Asante | DEF | -0.68 | -0.31 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 2011 | #137 | Buster Skrine | DEF | -0.28 | -0.30 | +0.50 | -0.55 | -0.47 | -0.30 | -0.26 | -0.82 |
| 2012 | #22 | Brandon Weeden | OFF | -0.53 | -0.44 | +0.01 | -0.51 | — | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.94 |
| 2010 | #92 | Shawn Lauvao | OFF | -0.21 | -0.01 | +0.02 | -0.30 | -1.36 | -0.23 | -0.14 | -1.09 |
| 2012 | #37 | Mitchell Schwartz | OFF | -0.20 | +0.20 | +0.39 | -0.32 | -1.40 | -0.58 | -0.34 | -1.19 |
| 2012 | #100 | Travis Benjamin | OFF | -0.39 | -0.65 | -0.27 | -0.60 | -0.29 | -0.38 | -0.23 | -1.20 |
| 2011 | #37 | Jabaal Sheard | DEF | -0.69 | -0.37 | -0.63 | -0.61 | -0.84 | -0.83 | -0.42 | -1.90 |
| 2012 | #3 | Trent Richardson | OFF | -0.76 | -0.78 | -0.44 | -1.16 | — | -0.26 | -0.17 | -2.04 |
| 2010 | #7 | Joe Haden | DEF | -0.44 | -0.22 | -0.48 | -0.46 | +0.33 | -2.65 | -2.47 | -3.01 |
| 2010 | #85 | Colt McCoy | OFF | -1.52 | -1.12 | — | -1.43 | — | -0.61 | -0.14 | -3.13 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.