Ryan Pace
CHI · Composite skill θ = -0.24 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.07 to +0.60
Evidence: 46 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 2015–2021 · 89% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.30
- maturity discount
- +0.03
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2015–2021CHI
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | #112 | Eddie Jackson | DEF | +5.10 |
| 2017 | #119 | Tarik Cohen | OFF | +2.68 |
| 2020 | #50 | Jaylon Johnson | DEF | +2.64 |
| 2020 | #43 | Cole Kmet | OFF | +1.66 |
| 2016 | #56 | Cody Whitehair | OFF | +1.58 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #7 | Kevin White | OFF | -4.22 |
| 2016 | #9 | Leonard Floyd | DEF | -3.62 |
| 2015 | #71 | Hroniss Grasu | OFF | -2.52 |
| 2016 | #72 | Jonathan Bullard | DEF | -2.35 |
| 2017 | #2 | Mitchell Trubisky | OFF | -1.64 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 46 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2017 | #112 | Eddie Jackson | DEF | +1.07 | +1.84 | +1.55 | +1.39 | +1.83 | +1.99 | +2.01 | +5.10 |
| 2017 | #119 | Tarik Cohen | OFF | +0.49 | +0.30 | +0.74 | +0.64 | +0.53 | +1.03 | +2.12 | +2.68 |
| 2020 | #50 | Jaylon Johnson | DEF | +0.62 | +1.19 | +0.87 | +0.69 | +1.00 | +1.96 | -0.13 | +2.64 |
| 2020 | #43 | Cole Kmet | OFF | +1.10 | +1.51 | +1.97 | +0.59 | +0.11 | -0.31 | -0.12 | +1.66 |
| 2016 | #56 | Cody Whitehair | OFF | +1.26 | +1.76 | +1.21 | +0.84 | -0.61 | +0.45 | -0.36 | +1.58 |
| 2016 | #150 | Jordan Howard | OFF | +0.09 | +0.66 | +1.30 | +0.43 | +0.34 | +0.97 | -0.07 | +1.52 |
| 2020 | #173 | Darnell Mooney | OFF | +0.58 | +0.88 | +1.37 | +0.65 | +0.55 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +1.48 |
| 2018 | #145 | Bilal Nichols | DEF | +0.17 | +0.52 | +0.55 | +0.34 | +1.05 | -0.14 | -0.07 | +1.00 |
| 2021 | #11 | Justin Fields | OFF | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.15 | +0.48 | +1.02 | -0.25 | -0.04 | +0.65 |
| 2021 | #217 | Khalil Herbert | OFF | +0.51 | +0.12 | +0.46 | +0.30 | +0.27 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.61 |
| 2019 | #73 | David Montgomery | OFF | +0.11 | +0.54 | +1.11 | +0.46 | -0.07 | -0.38 | -0.18 | +0.51 |
| 2021 | #151 | Larry Borom | OFF | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.13 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.34 |
| 2020 | #155 | Trevis Gipson | DEF | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.14 | -0.03 | +0.35 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.19 |
| 2015 | #142 | Adrian Amos | DEF | -0.22 | +0.36 | +0.95 | -0.15 | +0.29 | -0.29 | -0.23 | +0.17 |
| 2020 | #163 | Kindle Vildor | DEF | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.37 | -0.10 | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| 2021 | #228 | Thomas Graham | DEF | -0.33 | -0.07 | +0.42 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2021 | #250 | Khyiris Tonga | DEF | -0.21 | -0.16 | +0.45 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2015 | #106 | Jeremy Langford | OFF | -0.05 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.02 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| 2016 | #113 | Nick Kwiatkoski | DEF | +0.18 | -0.18 | +0.21 | -0.05 | -0.13 | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.13 |
| 2018 | #181 | Kylie Fitts | DEF | -0.46 | -0.23 | +0.05 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2020 | #226 | Arlington Hambright | OFF | -0.38 | -0.39 | +0.38 | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| 2018 | #224 | Javon Wims | OFF | +0.27 | +0.02 | +0.32 | -0.13 | -1.11 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2019 | #205 | Duke Shelley | DEF | -0.07 | -0.25 | +0.04 | -0.19 | -0.43 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.44 |
| 2016 | #230 | Daniel Braverman | OFF | -0.39 | -0.12 | -0.60 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2016 | #185 | DeAndre Houston-Carson | DEF | +1.11 | -0.49 | -0.46 | -0.25 | -0.70 | -0.10 | -0.08 | -0.52 |
| 2021 | #39 | Teven Jenkins | OFF | -0.05 | +0.02 | -0.37 | -0.15 | -0.43 | -0.22 | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| 2018 | #115 | Joel Iyiegbuniwe | DEF | +0.56 | -0.48 | -0.23 | -0.24 | -0.78 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| 2016 | #127 | Deiondre' Hall | DEF | -0.44 | -0.33 | -0.66 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2019 | #238 | Stephen Denmark | DEF | -0.54 | -0.20 | -0.83 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2015 | #183 | Tayo Fabuluje | OFF | -0.45 | -0.37 | -0.67 | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.76 |
| 2019 | #222 | Kerrith Whyte Jr | OFF | -0.59 | -0.15 | -1.01 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2018 | #51 | Anthony Miller | OFF | -0.23 | -0.55 | +0.06 | -0.36 | -0.38 | -0.36 | -0.16 | -0.87 |
| 2021 | #221 | Dazz Newsome | OFF | -0.54 | -0.23 | -1.08 | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 2020 | #227 | Lachavious Simmons | OFF | -0.55 | -0.39 | -0.88 | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.94 |
| 2018 | #8 | Roquan Smith | DEF | -0.29 | -0.01 | +0.22 | +0.13 | +0.37 | -1.42 | -0.99 | -0.98 |
| 2015 | #39 | Eddie Goldman | DEF | -0.27 | +0.22 | -0.85 | -0.22 | +0.49 | -1.17 | -0.56 | -1.02 |
| 2017 | #45 | Adam Shaheen | OFF | -0.38 | -0.39 | -0.64 | -0.30 | -0.64 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.02 |
| 2019 | #126 | Riley Ridley | OFF | -0.51 | -0.35 | -1.22 | -0.30 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.03 |
| 2017 | #147 | Jordan Morgan | OFF | -0.67 | -0.48 | -1.02 | -0.35 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.10 |
| 2016 | #124 | Deon Bush | DEF | +0.40 | -0.73 | -0.96 | -0.61 | -0.75 | -0.25 | -0.18 | -1.33 |
| 2018 | #39 | James Daniels | OFF | -0.36 | -0.16 | -0.19 | -0.47 | -1.20 | -0.68 | -0.35 | -1.60 |
| 2017 | #2 | Mitchell Trubisky | OFF | -0.51 | -0.61 | -0.38 | -0.68 | -0.71 | -0.52 | -0.38 | -1.64 |
| 2016 | #72 | Jonathan Bullard | DEF | -0.77 | -1.28 | -0.88 | -1.03 | -0.90 | -0.55 | -0.26 | -2.35 |
| 2015 | #71 | Hroniss Grasu | OFF | -1.32 | -1.08 | -1.41 | -1.03 | -0.74 | -0.47 | -0.27 | -2.52 |
| 2016 | #9 | Leonard Floyd | DEF | -1.03 | -0.68 | -0.82 | -0.96 | -0.14 | -2.53 | -1.93 | -3.62 |
| 2015 | #7 | Kevin White | OFF | -1.46 | -1.60 | -2.30 | -1.67 | -1.49 | -1.07 | -0.62 | -4.22 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.