Randy Mueller
SEA · NO · MIA · Composite skill θ = -0.40 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.03 to +0.24
Evidence: 45 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 1999–2007 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.11
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1999–1999SEAGM; left for NO Jan 2000
- 2000–2001NOGM
- 2005–2007MIAGM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #23 | Deuce McAllister | OFF | +3.20 |
| 2005 | #70 | Channing Crowder | DEF | +2.22 |
| 2007 | #108 | Paul Soliai | DEF | +1.49 |
| 2007 | #225 | Brandon Fields | ST | +1.39 |
| 2001 | #70 | Sedrick Hodge | DEF | +1.24 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #9 | Ted Ginn Jr. | OFF | -7.76 |
| 2001 | #115 | Moran Norris | OFF | -3.02 |
| 2005 | #2 | Ronnie Brown | OFF | -2.14 |
| 2000 | #131 | Tutan Reyes | OFF | -2.12 |
| 2005 | #216 | Kevin Vickerson | DEF | -2.03 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 45 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2001 | #23 | Deuce McAllister | OFF | +0.85 | +0.93 | — | +1.49 | — | +1.85 | -0.20 | +3.20 |
| 2005 | #70 | Channing Crowder | DEF | +1.04 | +1.45 | — | +1.01 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +2.22 |
| 2007 | #108 | Paul Soliai | DEF | +0.80 | +0.59 | -0.05 | +0.46 | +0.78 | +0.92 | -0.09 | +1.49 |
| 2007 | #225 | Brandon Fields | ST | +1.95 | -0.39 | — | +0.67 | — | -0.06 | -0.06 | +1.39 |
| 2001 | #70 | Sedrick Hodge | DEF | +0.81 | +0.79 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.24 |
| 1999 | #115 | Antonio Cochran | DEF | +1.11 | +0.41 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.22 |
| 1999 | #140 | Floyd Wedderburn | OFF | +0.68 | +0.46 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.03 |
| 1999 | #22 | Lamar King | DEF | +0.52 | +0.34 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.55 |
| 2006 | #226 | Rodrique Wright | DEF | +0.02 | +0.30 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 1999 | #152 | Charlie Rogers | OFF | +0.56 | +0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2000 | #33 | Darren Howard | DEF | +0.12 | +0.66 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.35 | -0.17 | +0.30 |
| 2007 | #60 | Samson Satele | OFF | -0.18 | +0.18 | +0.26 | +0.12 | +0.40 | -0.18 | -0.11 | +0.21 |
| 2000 | #195 | Michael Hawthorne | DEF | +0.17 | +0.04 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 2005 | #46 | Matt Roth | DEF | +0.42 | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.04 |
| 2001 | #221 | Ennis Davis | DEF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2000 | #158 | Austin Wheatley | OFF | -0.34 | -0.09 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2007 | #238 | Abraham Wright | DEF | -0.29 | +0.05 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1999 | #77 | Brock Huard | OFF | -0.13 | +0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2000 | #200 | Sherrod Gideon | OFF | -0.29 | +0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 1999 | #170 | Steve Johnson | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2000 | #228 | Kevin Houser | OFF | +1.95 | -1.23 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.20 |
| 2005 | #162 | Anthony Alabi | OFF | -0.03 | -0.25 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2001 | #153 | Onomo Ojo | OFF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2007 | #219 | Kelvin Smith | DEF | -0.31 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2007 | #181 | Reagan Maui'a | OFF | -0.22 | +0.08 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2001 | #185 | Mitch White | OFF | -0.34 | -0.18 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2005 | #104 | Travis Daniels | DEF | -0.10 | -0.06 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.35 |
| 2007 | #199 | Drew Mormino | OFF | -0.37 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1999 | #82 | Karsten Bailey | OFF | -0.31 | -0.24 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2000 | #166 | Chad Morton | OFF | -0.40 | -0.23 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2007 | #40 | John Beck | OFF | -0.37 | -0.26 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2007 | #71 | Lorenzo Booker | OFF | -0.53 | -0.28 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.62 |
| 2006 | #114 | Joe Toledo | OFF | -0.55 | -0.38 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 2006 | #233 | Devin Aromashodu | OFF | -0.68 | -0.30 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| 2006 | #16 | Jason Allen | DEF | +0.35 | -0.68 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.20 | -0.14 | -0.99 |
| 2006 | #212 | Fred Evans | DEF | -0.90 | -0.51 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.18 |
| 2001 | #81 | Kenny Smith | DEF | -0.68 | -0.70 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -1.37 |
| 2000 | #96 | Terrelle Smith | OFF | -0.18 | -0.07 | — | -1.04 | — | -0.26 | -0.17 | -1.38 |
| 2006 | #82 | Derek Hagan | OFF | -0.57 | -0.99 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.20 | -0.12 | -1.70 |
| 2000 | #168 | Marc Bulger | OFF | -1.08 | -0.75 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.06 | -0.01 | -1.77 |
| 2005 | #216 | Kevin Vickerson | DEF | -1.34 | -0.88 | — | -0.87 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -2.03 |
| 2000 | #131 | Tutan Reyes | OFF | -1.26 | -1.01 | — | -0.90 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | -2.12 |
| 2005 | #2 | Ronnie Brown | OFF | -0.26 | -0.15 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.82 | -1.63 | -2.14 |
| 2001 | #115 | Moran Norris | OFF | -1.66 | -1.21 | — | -1.31 | — | -0.32 | -0.22 | -3.02 |
| 2007 | #9 | Ted Ginn Jr. | OFF | -1.87 | -1.80 | — | -2.20 | — | -4.21 | -3.25 | -7.76 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.