Dan Morgan
CAR · Composite skill θ = +0.01 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.79 to +1.80
Evidence: 15 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2024–2025 · 18% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.12
- maturity discount
- -0.02
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2024–2025CARHired Jan 2024
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #122 | Lathan Ransom | ST | +0.74 |
| 2025 | #163 | Mitchell Evans | OFF | +0.68 |
| 2024 | #101 | Ja'Tavion Sanders | OFF | +0.56 |
| 2024 | #157 | Chau Smith-Wade | DEF | +0.49 |
| 2025 | #208 | Jimmy Horn | OFF | +0.48 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #46 | Jonathon Brooks | OFF | -0.68 |
| 2024 | #32 | Xavier Legette | OFF | -0.35 |
| 2025 | #8 | Tetairoa McMillan | OFF | -0.30 |
| 2025 | #51 | Nic Scourton | DEF | -0.20 |
| 2024 | #240 | Michael Barrett | DEF | -0.08 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 15 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2025 | #122 | Lathan Ransom | ST | +0.14 | +0.22 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.97 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.74 |
| 2025 | #163 | Mitchell Evans | OFF | +0.22 | +0.38 | +0.33 | +0.38 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.68 |
| 2024 | #101 | Ja'Tavion Sanders | OFF | +0.22 | +0.19 | +0.14 | +0.30 | +0.49 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.56 |
| 2024 | #157 | Chau Smith-Wade | DEF | +0.43 | +0.29 | +0.53 | +0.25 | -0.10 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.49 |
| 2025 | #208 | Jimmy Horn | OFF | +0.27 | +0.24 | +0.42 | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | #140 | Cam Jackson | DEF | +0.03 | +0.12 | +0.15 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2024 | #200 | Jaden Crumedy | DEF | -0.01 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2024 | #72 | Trevin Wallace | DEF | -0.01 | +0.23 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| 2025 | #114 | Trevor Etienne | OFF | +0.13 | +0.09 | -0.05 | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 2025 | #77 | Princely Umanmielen | DEF | +0.02 | -0.08 | -0.10 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | #240 | Michael Barrett | DEF | -0.23 | +0.08 | -0.09 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2025 | #51 | Nic Scourton | DEF | -0.06 | +0.00 | +0.07 | -0.05 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2025 | #8 | Tetairoa McMillan | OFF | -0.34 | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.54 | +0.58 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.30 |
| 2024 | #32 | Xavier Legette | OFF | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.07 | -0.16 | -0.67 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.35 |
| 2024 | #46 | Jonathon Brooks | OFF | -0.42 | -0.16 | -0.51 | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.