Adam Peters
WAS · Composite skill θ = +0.02 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.76 to +1.79
Evidence: 14 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2024–2025 · 21% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.17
- maturity discount
- -0.07
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2024–2025WAS
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #2 | Jayden Daniels | OFF | +1.41 |
| 2025 | #245 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | OFF | +0.98 |
| 2024 | #67 | Brandon Coleman | OFF | +0.52 |
| 2024 | #222 | Javontae Jean-Baptiste | DEF | +0.38 |
| 2025 | #128 | Jaylin Lane | OFF | +0.38 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #53 | Ben Sinnott | OFF | -0.79 |
| 2025 | #29 | Josh Conerly | OFF | -0.47 |
| 2025 | #61 | Trey Amos | DEF | -0.43 |
| 2024 | #36 | Jer'Zhan Newton | DEF | -0.24 |
| 2024 | #139 | Jordan Magee | DEF | -0.07 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 14 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2024 | #2 | Jayden Daniels | OFF | +0.00 | -0.31 | -0.19 | -0.16 | +2.31 | +1.01 | -0.01 | +1.41 |
| 2025 | #245 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | OFF | +0.39 | +0.53 | +0.79 | +0.41 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.98 |
| 2024 | #67 | Brandon Coleman | OFF | +0.12 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.12 | +0.84 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 2024 | #222 | Javontae Jean-Baptiste | DEF | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.28 | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2025 | #128 | Jaylin Lane | OFF | +0.15 | +0.20 | +0.28 | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2024 | #161 | Dominique Hampton | DEF | -0.09 | +0.17 | +0.24 | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 2025 | #205 | Kain Medrano | DEF | +0.07 | +0.15 | +0.25 | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 2024 | #50 | Mike Sainristil | DEF | +0.20 | +0.46 | +0.63 | +0.13 | -0.44 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.24 |
| 2024 | #100 | Luke McCaffrey | OFF | +0.20 | -0.01 | -0.02 | +0.03 | -0.07 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2024 | #139 | Jordan Magee | DEF | +0.19 | +0.15 | +0.09 | +0.06 | -0.45 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2024 | #36 | Jer'Zhan Newton | DEF | +0.11 | -0.10 | -0.12 | -0.11 | -0.24 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2025 | #61 | Trey Amos | DEF | -0.20 | +0.04 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.57 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2025 | #29 | Josh Conerly | OFF | -0.20 | -0.15 | +0.02 | -0.22 | -0.45 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2024 | #53 | Ben Sinnott | OFF | +0.14 | -0.26 | -0.33 | -0.07 | -1.15 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.79 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.