Mike Sherman
GB · Composite skill θ = +0.15 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.68 to +0.98
Evidence: 21 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2002–2004 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2004GBHC + GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | #156 | Aaron Kampman | DEF | +4.37 |
| 2004 | #251 | Scott Wells | OFF | +3.26 |
| 2003 | #29 | Nick Barnett | DEF | +0.74 |
| 2002 | #92 | Marques Anderson | DEF | +0.55 |
| 2004 | #87 | B.J. Sander | ST | +0.03 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #245 | Chris Johnson | DEF | -1.96 |
| 2003 | #166 | Hunter Hillenmeyer | DEF | -1.54 |
| 2003 | #79 | Kenny Peterson | DEF | -0.78 |
| 2004 | #72 | Donnell Washington | DEF | -0.70 |
| 2004 | #70 | Joey Thomas | DEF | -0.41 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 21 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2002 | #156 | Aaron Kampman | DEF | +1.28 | +1.93 | — | +1.74 | — | +2.10 | -0.05 | +4.37 |
| 2004 | #251 | Scott Wells | OFF | +1.16 | +1.54 | — | +1.46 | — | +1.00 | -0.09 | +3.26 |
| 2003 | #29 | Nick Barnett | DEF | +0.39 | +1.13 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.83 | -0.65 | +0.74 |
| 2002 | #92 | Marques Anderson | DEF | +0.16 | +0.26 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2004 | #87 | B.J. Sander | ST | -0.27 | +0.06 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.03 |
| 2003 | #256 | Carl Ford | OFF | -0.22 | +0.11 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2003 | #253 | DeAndrew Rubin | OFF | -0.22 | +0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2002 | #164 | Craig Nall | OFF | -0.08 | -0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2003 | #147 | James Lee | DEF | -0.20 | -0.03 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.09 |
| 2003 | #257 | Steve Josue | DEF | -0.21 | +0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2002 | #135 | Najeh Davenport | OFF | +0.08 | -0.34 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.16 |
| 2004 | #179 | Corey Williams | DEF | +0.18 | -0.18 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.16 |
| 2003 | #212 | Brennan Curtin | OFF | -0.31 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2002 | #20 | Javon Walker | OFF | -0.34 | -0.77 | — | -0.08 | — | +0.80 | -0.17 | -0.32 |
| 2002 | #200 | Mike Houghton | OFF | -0.32 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2004 | #25 | Ahmad Carroll | DEF | -0.26 | -0.09 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.41 |
| 2004 | #70 | Joey Thomas | DEF | -0.17 | -0.32 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2004 | #72 | Donnell Washington | DEF | -0.64 | -0.31 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2003 | #79 | Kenny Peterson | DEF | -0.18 | -0.62 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 2003 | #166 | Hunter Hillenmeyer | DEF | -1.08 | -0.66 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -1.54 |
| 2003 | #245 | Chris Johnson | DEF | -1.29 | -0.85 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.06 | -0.06 | -1.96 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.