Jerry Reese
NYG · Composite skill θ = -0.55 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.06 to -0.04
Composite θ
-0.55
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.06–-0.04
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
2%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Terrible
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 78 mapped picks across 11 draft classes, 2007–2017 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.44
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2007–2017NYGTwo SB titles
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #33 | Landon Collins | DEF | +3.42 |
| 2007 | #224 | Michael Johnson | DEF | +1.63 |
| 2007 | #250 | Ahmad Bradshaw | OFF | +1.54 |
| 2007 | #153 | Kevin Boss | OFF | +1.43 |
| 2011 | #202 | Jacquian Williams | DEF | +1.42 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #10 | Eli Apple | DEF | -4.61 |
| 2010 | #46 | Linval Joseph | DEF | -3.63 |
| 2010 | #15 | Jason Pierre-Paul | DEF | -3.42 |
| 2013 | #19 | Justin Pugh | OFF | -3.05 |
| 2013 | #49 | Johnathan Hankins | DEF | -2.49 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 78 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2015 | #33 | Landon Collins | DEF | -0.04 | +0.36 | +0.34 | +0.34 | +1.38 | +2.82 | +1.85 | +3.42 |
| 2007 | #224 | Michael Johnson | DEF | +0.87 | +0.98 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.63 |
| 2007 | #250 | Ahmad Bradshaw | OFF | +0.91 | +0.30 | — | +1.00 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +1.54 |
| 2007 | #153 | Kevin Boss | OFF | +0.71 | +0.92 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.43 |
| 2011 | #202 | Jacquian Williams | DEF | +0.73 | +0.46 | +1.53 | +0.48 | +0.56 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.42 |
| 2012 | #63 | Rueben Randle | OFF | +0.77 | +0.45 | +1.53 | +0.56 | +0.26 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.28 |
| 2007 | #116 | Zak DeOssie | DEF | +2.45 | -1.82 | — | -0.73 | +1.28 | +1.60 | -0.55 | +1.10 |
| 2007 | #51 | Steve Smith | OFF | +0.16 | +0.08 | — | +0.39 | — | +1.02 | -0.04 | +1.00 |
| 2012 | #239 | Markus Kuhn | DEF | +0.58 | +0.28 | +1.19 | +0.27 | +0.33 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.98 |
| 2008 | #63 | Terrell Thomas | DEF | +0.53 | +0.54 | +0.34 | +0.37 | +0.68 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.95 |
| 2008 | #95 | Mario Manningham | OFF | +0.39 | +0.34 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.77 |
| 2008 | #165 | Jonathan Goff | DEF | +0.37 | +0.38 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.62 |
| 2010 | #221 | Matt Dodge | ST | +0.01 | +0.29 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.53 |
| 2017 | #140 | Wayne Gallman | OFF | +0.59 | +0.14 | +0.65 | +0.25 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.49 |
| 2009 | #129 | Andre Brown | OFF | -0.12 | +0.15 | +0.96 | +0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 2011 | #221 | Da'Rel Scott | OFF | +0.08 | +0.04 | +1.12 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2012 | #94 | Jayron Hosley | DEF | +0.35 | +0.07 | +0.31 | +0.12 | +0.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| 2009 | #29 | Hakeem Nicks | OFF | +0.54 | +0.65 | -0.06 | +0.79 | -0.80 | -0.22 | -0.11 | +0.22 |
| 2009 | #100 | Travis Beckum | OFF | +0.50 | -0.21 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 2014 | #43 | Weston Richburg | OFF | +0.10 | +0.38 | +0.73 | +0.18 | -0.38 | -0.15 | -0.08 | +0.19 |
| 2008 | #198 | Andre Woodson | OFF | -0.05 | +0.15 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2014 | #174 | Devon Kennard | DEF | -0.08 | +0.09 | +0.59 | -0.13 | +0.16 | -0.11 | -0.06 | +0.13 |
| 2011 | #198 | Tyler Sash | DEF | +0.13 | -0.09 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2011 | #117 | James Brewer | OFF | +0.02 | -0.22 | +0.61 | -0.12 | -0.11 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 2009 | #151 | Rhett Bomar | OFF | -0.16 | +0.05 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 2016 | #184 | Jerell Adams | OFF | +0.10 | -0.16 | -0.21 | +0.14 | +0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2010 | #184 | Adrian Tracy | DEF | -0.04 | -0.07 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 2012 | #127 | Adrien Robinson | OFF | -0.18 | -0.26 | +0.28 | +0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2013 | #253 | Michael Cox | OFF | +0.04 | +0.05 | -0.03 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2014 | #152 | Nat Berhe | DEF | +0.34 | -0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | -0.24 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2015 | #186 | Geremy Davis | OFF | -0.28 | -0.16 | +0.74 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2007 | #81 | Jay Alford | DEF | +0.14 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2016 | #109 | B.J. Goodson | DEF | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.13 | -0.11 | +0.13 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.08 |
| 2014 | #113 | Andre Williams | OFF | +0.08 | -0.06 | +0.61 | -0.02 | -0.51 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| 2011 | #83 | Jerrel Jernigan | OFF | +0.13 | -0.25 | +0.27 | -0.22 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| 2009 | #238 | Stoney Woodson | DEF | -0.33 | +0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2007 | #189 | Adam Koets | OFF | -0.12 | -0.11 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2011 | #185 | Greg Jones | DEF | -0.14 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2009 | #60 | Will Beatty | OFF | +0.54 | +0.38 | -0.06 | +0.24 | -0.54 | -0.32 | -0.19 | -0.12 |
| 2008 | #199 | Robert Henderson | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 2009 | #85 | Ramses Barden | OFF | +0.05 | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| 2017 | #55 | Dalvin Tomlinson | DEF | -0.20 | +0.44 | +0.41 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.52 | -0.23 | -0.20 |
| 2009 | #200 | DeAndre Wright | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2012 | #131 | Brandon Mosley | OFF | -0.06 | -0.39 | +0.42 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2016 | #149 | Paul Perkins | OFF | -0.04 | -0.07 | +0.09 | -0.02 | -0.36 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| 2010 | #147 | Mitch Petrus | OFF | -0.11 | -0.26 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2014 | #74 | Jay Bromley | DEF | +0.55 | -0.33 | +0.35 | -0.12 | -0.82 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| 2013 | #110 | Ryan Nassib | OFF | -0.21 | -0.12 | -0.28 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.31 |
| 2017 | #167 | Avery Moss | DEF | -0.34 | -0.18 | -0.39 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 2007 | #20 | Aaron Ross | DEF | +0.32 | +0.04 | -0.52 | -0.23 | — | -0.19 | -0.13 | -0.44 |
| 2008 | #123 | Bryan Kehl | DEF | -0.07 | -0.36 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 2013 | #152 | Cooper Taylor | DEF | -0.17 | -0.21 | -0.60 | -0.07 | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2016 | #71 | Darian Thompson | DEF | -0.61 | -0.23 | +0.03 | -0.29 | +0.04 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.47 |
| 2012 | #201 | Matt McCants | OFF | -0.45 | -0.28 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2013 | #225 | Eric Herman | OFF | -0.43 | -0.26 | -0.41 | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2008 | #31 | Kenny Phillips | DEF | -0.14 | -0.07 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.26 | -0.18 | -0.69 |
| 2010 | #115 | Phillip Dillard | DEF | -0.50 | -0.32 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2017 | #23 | Evan Engram | OFF | -0.42 | -0.28 | -0.07 | -0.39 | +0.27 | -0.23 | -0.60 | -0.74 |
| 2017 | #200 | Adam Bisnowaty | OFF | -0.54 | -0.35 | -0.65 | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 2012 | #32 | David Wilson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.49 | -0.04 | -0.43 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.84 |
| 2010 | #76 | Chad Jones | DEF | -0.71 | -0.39 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 2015 | #144 | Mykkele Thompson | DEF | -0.60 | -0.26 | -1.14 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.85 |
| 2011 | #52 | Marvin Austin | DEF | -0.62 | -0.51 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.96 |
| 2009 | #45 | Clint Sintim | DEF | -0.33 | -0.60 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.96 |
| 2017 | #87 | Davis Webb | OFF | -0.66 | -0.43 | -0.97 | -0.37 | — | -0.07 | -0.01 | -1.10 |
| 2015 | #74 | Owamagbe Odighizuwa | DEF | -0.37 | -0.46 | -1.00 | -0.31 | -0.64 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.12 |
| 2016 | #40 | Sterling Shepard | OFF | +0.16 | +0.42 | -0.12 | -0.27 | -0.69 | -1.27 | -0.67 | -1.30 |
| 2014 | #187 | Bennett Jackson | DEF | -0.91 | -0.51 | -1.10 | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -1.30 |
| 2013 | #81 | Damontre Moore | DEF | -0.33 | -0.93 | -0.20 | -0.65 | -1.26 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -1.55 |
| 2011 | #19 | Prince Amukamara | DEF | -0.51 | -0.35 | -0.16 | -0.65 | -0.71 | -0.66 | -0.48 | -1.59 |
| 2015 | #9 | Ereck Flowers | OFF | -0.36 | -0.36 | +0.06 | -0.70 | -1.29 | -0.60 | -0.35 | -1.69 |
| 2015 | #226 | Bobby Hart | OFF | -0.94 | -0.84 | -0.23 | -0.99 | -0.76 | -0.26 | -0.21 | -1.78 |
| 2014 | #12 | Odell Beckham Jr. | OFF | -0.97 | -0.62 | -0.16 | -0.23 | +0.75 | -1.67 | -1.69 | -2.00 |
| 2013 | #49 | Johnathan Hankins | DEF | -1.11 | -0.76 | -0.58 | -1.05 | -0.57 | -1.13 | -0.58 | -2.49 |
| 2013 | #19 | Justin Pugh | OFF | -0.53 | -0.13 | -0.42 | -0.76 | -1.30 | -2.02 | -1.30 | -3.05 |
| 2010 | #15 | Jason Pierre-Paul | DEF | -0.85 | -0.76 | -0.59 | -0.89 | -1.27 | -2.31 | -0.92 | -3.42 |
| 2010 | #46 | Linval Joseph | DEF | -1.79 | -1.25 | -1.55 | -1.72 | +0.72 | -1.98 | -1.22 | -3.63 |
| 2016 | #10 | Eli Apple | DEF | -1.52 | -1.44 | -1.17 | -1.58 | -1.19 | -2.08 | -1.59 | -4.61 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.