Trent Baalke
SF · JAX · Composite skill θ = -0.14 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.14 to +0.85
Composite θ
-0.14
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.14–+0.85
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
39%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Bad
directional only
Evidence: 107 mapped picks across 11 draft classes, 2010–2024 · 80% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.08
- maturity discount
- +0.04
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2010–2016SFPromoted to acting GM Mar 2010 after McCloughan fired pre-draft
- 2021–2024JAX
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #91 | NaVorro Bowman | DEF | +7.96 |
| 2011 | #36 | Colin Kaepernick | OFF | +2.19 |
| 2022 | #27 | Devin Lloyd | DEF | +2.14 |
| 2011 | #80 | Chris Culliver | DEF | +1.64 |
| 2024 | #212 | Cam Little | ST | +1.52 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #30 | Jimmie Ward | DEF | -1.96 |
| 2016 | #68 | Will Redmond | DEF | -1.93 |
| 2015 | #165 | Bradley Pinion | ST | -1.89 |
| 2015 | #117 | Blake Bell | OFF | -1.76 |
| 2011 | #190 | Colin Jones | DEF | -1.68 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 107 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #91 | NaVorro Bowman | DEF | +0.81 | +1.12 | +0.62 | +2.34 | +2.44 | +0.95 | +8.49 | +7.96 |
| 2011 | #36 | Colin Kaepernick | OFF | +0.90 | +0.97 | +1.23 | +1.56 | +0.86 | -0.08 | -0.01 | +2.19 |
| 2022 | #27 | Devin Lloyd | DEF | +0.40 | +0.78 | +0.75 | +0.78 | +1.39 | +0.92 | -0.09 | +2.14 |
| 2011 | #80 | Chris Culliver | DEF | +0.40 | +0.17 | +0.85 | +0.18 | +2.23 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.64 |
| 2024 | #212 | Cam Little | ST | +0.62 | +0.44 | +1.18 | +0.78 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.52 |
| 2023 | #185 | Parker Washington | OFF | +0.65 | +0.38 | +0.78 | +0.59 | +1.20 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.48 |
| 2013 | #157 | Quinton Dial | DEF | +0.58 | +0.72 | +1.25 | +0.51 | +0.64 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.41 |
| 2011 | #211 | Bruce Miller | DEF | +0.43 | +0.34 | +1.39 | -0.64 | +2.16 | -0.10 | -0.06 | +1.40 |
| 2021 | #1 | Trevor Lawrence | OFF | +0.89 | +0.76 | +0.71 | +0.66 | -0.21 | +0.67 | -0.09 | +1.31 |
| 2022 | #222 | Montaric Brown | DEF | +0.79 | +0.67 | +0.93 | +0.45 | +0.22 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.12 |
| 2010 | #206 | Kyle Williams | OFF | +0.54 | +0.21 | +1.31 | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.89 |
| 2024 | #23 | Brian Thomas | OFF | -0.02 | +0.21 | +0.13 | +0.16 | +1.48 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.88 |
| 2023 | #160 | Antonio Johnson | DEF | +0.70 | +0.45 | +0.64 | +0.39 | +0.15 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.86 |
| 2021 | #65 | Andre Cisco | DEF | +0.51 | +0.62 | +0.49 | +0.30 | +0.20 | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.70 |
| 2022 | #65 | Luke Fortner | OFF | +0.37 | +0.22 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.68 | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.62 |
| 2021 | #25 | Travis Etienne | OFF | +0.36 | +0.72 | +0.53 | +0.60 | +0.04 | -0.37 | -0.16 | +0.60 |
| 2011 | #115 | Kendall Hunter | OFF | +0.42 | -0.17 | +0.70 | +0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.58 |
| 2023 | #27 | Anton Harrison | OFF | +0.26 | +0.44 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.19 | -0.11 | -0.04 | +0.56 |
| 2014 | #180 | Kenneth Acker | DEF | -0.16 | +0.19 | +0.67 | +0.13 | +0.53 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2021 | #33 | Tyson Campbell | DEF | +0.28 | +0.72 | +0.50 | +0.20 | +0.10 | -0.20 | -0.11 | +0.49 |
| 2013 | #18 | Eric Reid | DEF | +0.23 | +0.64 | +0.77 | +0.13 | +0.21 | -0.32 | -0.21 | +0.45 |
| 2024 | #236 | Myles Cole | DEF | +0.13 | +0.22 | +0.61 | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 2015 | #46 | Jaquiski Tartt | DEF | +0.60 | +0.77 | +0.33 | +0.20 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.14 | +0.41 |
| 2010 | #173 | Anthony Dixon | OFF | +0.88 | -0.19 | +0.93 | -0.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.38 |
| 2024 | #153 | Deantre Prince | DEF | +0.11 | +0.16 | +0.30 | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 |
| 2023 | #130 | Tyler Lacy | DEF | +0.19 | +0.07 | -0.03 | +0.07 | +0.45 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 2013 | #237 | B.J. Daniels | OFF | -0.07 | +0.13 | +0.59 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2011 | #239 | Michael Person | OFF | -0.46 | -0.10 | +1.16 | -0.19 | +0.53 | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.30 |
| 2023 | #61 | Brenton Strange | OFF | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.05 | +0.19 | +0.10 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.30 |
| 2024 | #167 | Keilan Robinson | OFF | +0.02 | +0.25 | +0.25 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 2015 | #79 | Eli Harold | DEF | +0.28 | +0.13 | +0.67 | +0.02 | -0.24 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.20 |
| 2023 | #226 | Cooper Hodges | OFF | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 2014 | #150 | Aaron Lynch | DEF | +0.10 | -0.03 | +0.50 | -0.03 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.10 |
| 2013 | #128 | Quinton Patton | OFF | +0.37 | +0.25 | +0.34 | +0.05 | -0.56 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| 2010 | #182 | Nate Byham | OFF | -0.15 | -0.05 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2014 | #77 | Chris Borland | DEF | -0.53 | -0.31 | -1.00 | -0.19 | +1.55 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.03 |
| 2010 | #17 | Mike Iupati | OFF | -0.49 | -0.12 | -0.78 | -0.05 | +0.42 | -0.55 | +1.05 | -0.02 |
| 2023 | #208 | Erick Hallett | DEF | -0.34 | -0.02 | +0.13 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2013 | #180 | Nick Moody | DEF | -0.10 | -0.17 | +0.29 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2024 | #96 | Jarrian Jones | DEF | +0.37 | +0.05 | +0.43 | +0.12 | -0.86 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2024 | #116 | Jordan Jefferson | DEF | -0.19 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2024 | #114 | Javon Foster | OFF | -0.14 | -0.12 | +0.15 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 2011 | #250 | Curtis Holcomb | DEF | -0.34 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2023 | #88 | Tank Bigsby | OFF | +0.18 | -0.21 | -0.53 | -0.02 | +0.18 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 2016 | #133 | Rashard Robinson | DEF | -0.33 | -0.12 | +0.14 | -0.10 | +0.12 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| 2023 | #240 | Derek Parish | DEF | -0.28 | +0.05 | -0.35 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2013 | #252 | Marcus Cooper | DEF | -0.57 | -0.22 | +0.80 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2012 | #237 | Cam Johnson | DEF | -0.32 | -0.02 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 2023 | #121 | Ventrell Miller | DEF | +0.17 | +0.04 | -0.17 | +0.02 | -0.40 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| 2023 | #227 | Raymond Vohasek | DEF | -0.30 | +0.03 | -0.40 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2022 | #1 | Travon Walker | DEF | +0.40 | +0.26 | +0.20 | -0.55 | +0.02 | -0.32 | -0.17 | -0.22 |
| 2023 | #202 | Christian Braswell | DEF | +0.20 | -0.03 | -0.23 | +0.05 | -0.48 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2021 | #45 | Walker Little | OFF | +0.58 | +0.09 | -0.33 | +0.03 | -0.47 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.24 |
| 2016 | #213 | Aaron Burbridge | OFF | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.30 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2015 | #254 | Rory Anderson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.13 | -0.70 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2016 | #249 | Prince Charles Iworah | DEF | -0.42 | -0.11 | -0.18 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2021 | #145 | Luke Farrell | OFF | +0.78 | +0.11 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.96 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.30 |
| 2010 | #224 | Phillip Adams | DEF | -0.20 | -0.20 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2023 | #136 | Yasir Abdullah | DEF | +0.13 | -0.15 | -0.49 | -0.08 | -0.13 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2014 | #243 | Kaleb Ramsey | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | -0.43 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2012 | #180 | Trent Robinson | DEF | -0.41 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2014 | #170 | Keith Reaser | DEF | +0.16 | -0.19 | -0.28 | -0.01 | -0.46 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2011 | #182 | Ronald Johnson | OFF | -0.44 | -0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2013 | #88 | Corey Lemonier | DEF | +0.30 | -0.31 | +0.06 | -0.14 | -0.62 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2014 | #129 | Dontae Johnson | DEF | +1.02 | -0.23 | +0.13 | -0.21 | -0.85 | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.39 |
| 2014 | #106 | Bruce Ellington | OFF | -0.05 | -0.33 | -0.05 | -0.19 | -0.29 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2016 | #142 | Ronald Blair | DEF | +0.31 | -0.38 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.57 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2010 | #11 | Anthony Davis | OFF | +0.26 | +0.42 | -0.43 | +0.07 | -0.51 | -0.36 | -0.22 | -0.42 |
| 2022 | #197 | Gregory Junior | DEF | -0.27 | -0.17 | -0.60 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2024 | #48 | Maason Smith | DEF | -0.04 | -0.17 | -0.29 | -0.15 | -0.39 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2013 | #246 | Carter Bykowski | OFF | -0.39 | -0.24 | -0.32 | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2012 | #199 | Jason Slowey | OFF | -0.45 | -0.28 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2011 | #163 | Daniel Kilgore | OFF | +0.24 | -0.17 | +0.05 | -0.33 | -0.61 | -0.19 | -0.14 | -0.60 |
| 2012 | #165 | Darius Fleming | DEF | -0.59 | -0.23 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 2016 | #211 | Kelvin Taylor | OFF | -0.53 | -0.10 | -0.79 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| 2014 | #57 | Carlos Hyde | OFF | -0.28 | -0.03 | +0.44 | -0.14 | -0.59 | -0.43 | -0.23 | -0.66 |
| 2015 | #190 | Ian Silberman | OFF | -0.51 | -0.35 | -0.39 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 2014 | #245 | Trey Millard | OFF | -0.43 | -0.01 | -1.42 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 2012 | #61 | LaMichael James | OFF | -0.46 | -0.43 | -0.19 | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.75 |
| 2022 | #70 | Chad Muma | DEF | +0.29 | -0.39 | -0.31 | -0.25 | -0.90 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.79 |
| 2013 | #131 | Marcus Lattimore | OFF | -0.62 | -0.19 | -0.92 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| 2022 | #154 | Snoop Conner | OFF | -0.42 | -0.18 | -1.14 | -0.23 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.85 |
| 2015 | #132 | DeAndre Smelter | OFF | -0.58 | -0.27 | -0.96 | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.87 |
| 2016 | #174 | Fahn Cooper | OFF | -0.59 | -0.40 | -0.77 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2021 | #209 | Jalen Camp | OFF | -0.64 | -0.27 | -0.94 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 2016 | #145 | John Theus | OFF | -0.55 | -0.44 | -0.85 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
| 2021 | #106 | Jay Tufele | DEF | -0.77 | -0.49 | -0.37 | -0.39 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 2014 | #70 | Marcus Martin | OFF | -0.59 | -0.35 | -1.17 | -0.36 | -0.01 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -1.02 |
| 2010 | #49 | Taylor Mays | DEF | -0.63 | -0.55 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.10 |
| 2011 | #7 | Aldon Smith | DEF | -0.95 | -1.21 | -0.97 | -0.92 | -0.60 | -0.10 | +1.48 | -1.11 |
| 2021 | #121 | Jordan Smith | DEF | -0.87 | -0.54 | -0.54 | -0.47 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.18 |
| 2014 | #100 | Brandon Thomas | OFF | -0.72 | -0.55 | -1.13 | -0.39 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.22 |
| 2013 | #40 | Tank Carradine | DEF | -0.25 | -0.77 | -1.20 | -0.55 | -0.23 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -1.25 |
| 2013 | #55 | Vance McDonald | OFF | -0.34 | -0.30 | -0.27 | -0.51 | -0.92 | -0.31 | -0.14 | -1.25 |
| 2015 | #244 | Trent Brown | OFF | -0.96 | -0.63 | +0.07 | -0.80 | -0.30 | -0.23 | -0.19 | -1.27 |
| 2015 | #17 | Arik Armstead | DEF | +0.43 | +0.61 | +0.37 | +0.01 | -0.78 | -1.86 | -0.93 | -1.31 |
| 2016 | #207 | Jeff Driskel | OFF | -1.01 | -0.70 | +0.10 | -0.73 | — | -0.09 | -0.02 | -1.33 |
| 2016 | #28 | Joshua Garnett | OFF | -0.54 | -0.72 | -0.92 | -0.63 | -0.46 | -0.14 | -0.07 | -1.39 |
| 2016 | #7 | DeForest Buckner | DEF | -0.74 | -0.40 | +0.85 | -0.40 | -0.53 | -0.86 | -1.03 | -1.49 |
| 2012 | #30 | A.J. Jenkins | OFF | -0.88 | -0.72 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.53 |
| 2012 | #117 | Joe Looney | OFF | -0.99 | -1.07 | -0.42 | -0.91 | -0.40 | -0.21 | -0.13 | -1.66 |
| 2015 | #126 | Mike Davis | OFF | -0.95 | -0.75 | -0.52 | -0.75 | — | -0.22 | -0.12 | -1.66 |
| 2011 | #190 | Colin Jones | DEF | -0.95 | -0.83 | — | -0.71 | — | -0.09 | -0.08 | -1.68 |
| 2015 | #117 | Blake Bell | OFF | -0.90 | -0.96 | -0.64 | -0.70 | -0.73 | -0.29 | -0.15 | -1.76 |
| 2015 | #165 | Bradley Pinion | ST | -0.31 | -1.02 | — | -0.77 | -0.94 | -0.37 | -0.36 | -1.89 |
| 2016 | #68 | Will Redmond | DEF | -1.26 | -0.89 | -0.98 | -0.74 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | -1.93 |
| 2014 | #30 | Jimmie Ward | DEF | +0.29 | +0.29 | -0.19 | -0.51 | -1.09 | -1.48 | -1.10 | -1.96 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.