Scott Pioli
KC · Composite skill θ = +0.13 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.46 to +0.72
Evidence: 32 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2009–2012 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.41
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2009–2012KC
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #5 | Eric Berry | DEF | +5.08 |
| 2011 | #70 | Justin Houston | DEF | +1.59 |
| 2010 | #68 | Jon Asamoah | OFF | +0.78 |
| 2011 | #86 | Allen Bailey | DEF | +0.57 |
| 2009 | #237 | Jake O'Connell | OFF | +0.55 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | #55 | Rodney Hudson | OFF | -2.79 |
| 2009 | #256 | Ryan Succop | ST | -2.23 |
| 2009 | #3 | Tyson Jackson | DEF | -1.23 |
| 2011 | #26 | Jonathan Baldwin | OFF | -0.99 |
| 2011 | #140 | Gabe Miller | DEF | -0.69 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 32 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #5 | Eric Berry | DEF | +0.21 | +0.48 | -0.89 | +0.47 | +1.88 | +2.33 | +5.63 | +5.08 |
| 2011 | #70 | Justin Houston | DEF | -0.11 | +0.61 | -0.20 | +0.73 | +1.43 | -0.22 | +1.04 | +1.59 |
| 2010 | #68 | Jon Asamoah | OFF | +0.70 | +0.53 | +0.78 | +0.21 | +0.08 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.78 |
| 2011 | #86 | Allen Bailey | DEF | +0.74 | +0.43 | +0.57 | +0.30 | +0.13 | -0.29 | -0.14 | +0.57 |
| 2009 | #237 | Jake O'Connell | OFF | +0.47 | +0.18 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2011 | #199 | Jerrell Powe | DEF | -0.12 | -0.03 | +1.10 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 |
| 2012 | #74 | Donald Stephenson | OFF | +0.49 | -0.20 | +0.11 | -0.04 | +0.37 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.25 |
| 2010 | #93 | Tony Moeaki | OFF | -0.17 | +0.27 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.21 |
| 2010 | #36 | Dexter McCluster | OFF | +0.13 | -0.34 | +0.05 | -0.11 | +0.89 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +0.19 |
| 2010 | #136 | Kendrick Lewis | DEF | -0.08 | +0.47 | +0.32 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.13 | -0.10 | +0.17 |
| 2012 | #11 | Dontari Poe | DEF | -0.03 | +0.36 | +1.36 | +0.27 | -0.06 | -0.76 | -0.38 | +0.10 |
| 2012 | #238 | Junior Hemingway | OFF | +0.39 | +0.05 | +1.57 | +0.05 | -1.16 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2009 | #102 | Donald Washington | DEF | +0.16 | -0.13 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 2010 | #50 | Javier Arenas | DEF | +0.32 | -0.20 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| 2011 | #118 | Jalil Brown | DEF | +0.10 | -0.20 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
| 2011 | #135 | Ricky Stanzi | OFF | -0.23 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 2010 | #142 | Cameron Sheffield | DEF | -0.10 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2012 | #182 | Cyrus Gray | OFF | +0.35 | -0.06 | +1.04 | -0.07 | -1.13 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2009 | #212 | Javarris Williams | OFF | -0.29 | +0.03 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2009 | #175 | Quinten Lawrence | OFF | -0.28 | -0.05 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2012 | #218 | Jerome Long | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 2011 | #223 | Shane Bannon | OFF | -0.40 | +0.02 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2012 | #146 | DeQuan Menzie | DEF | -0.55 | -0.20 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2012 | #44 | Jeff Allen | OFF | -0.10 | -0.22 | -1.01 | -0.23 | +0.56 | -0.33 | -0.19 | -0.53 |
| 2009 | #67 | Alex Magee | DEF | -0.31 | -0.36 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2012 | #107 | Devon Wylie | OFF | -0.49 | -0.26 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 2009 | #139 | Colin Brown | OFF | -0.52 | -0.35 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 2011 | #140 | Gabe Miller | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2011 | #26 | Jonathan Baldwin | OFF | -0.33 | -0.48 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.99 |
| 2009 | #3 | Tyson Jackson | DEF | +0.09 | -0.26 | -0.59 | -0.75 | -0.34 | -0.53 | -0.32 | -1.23 |
| 2009 | #256 | Ryan Succop | ST | -0.37 | -1.41 | — | -1.00 | — | -0.29 | -0.39 | -2.23 |
| 2011 | #55 | Rodney Hudson | OFF | -1.09 | -1.06 | -0.49 | -1.21 | -0.58 | -1.21 | -0.81 | -2.79 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.