David Caldwell
JAX · Composite skill θ = -0.65 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.42 to +0.11
Evidence: 65 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 2013–2020 · 94% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.30
- maturity discount
- +0.04
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2013–2020JAX
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #144 | Telvin Smith | DEF | +4.01 |
| 2018 | #247 | Logan Cooke | ST | +1.68 |
| 2013 | #169 | Josh Evans | DEF | +1.66 |
| 2016 | #69 | Yannick Ngakoue | DEF | +1.37 |
| 2020 | #73 | DaVon Hamilton | DEF | +1.07 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #3 | Dante Fowler | DEF | -8.73 |
| 2016 | #103 | Sheldon Day | DEF | -2.60 |
| 2017 | #4 | Leonard Fournette | OFF | -2.42 |
| 2020 | #9 | C.J. Henderson | DEF | -2.39 |
| 2014 | #61 | Allen Robinson | OFF | -1.98 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 65 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2014 | #144 | Telvin Smith | DEF | +1.16 | +1.60 | +2.85 | +1.75 | +1.50 | +1.07 | -0.02 | +4.01 |
| 2018 | #247 | Logan Cooke | ST | +2.01 | -0.37 | +0.70 | +0.62 | +0.26 | +1.01 | -0.08 | +1.68 |
| 2013 | #169 | Josh Evans | DEF | +0.62 | +0.85 | +1.24 | +0.53 | +1.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.66 |
| 2016 | #69 | Yannick Ngakoue | DEF | -0.15 | +0.48 | +0.69 | +0.40 | +1.12 | +0.71 | -0.17 | +1.37 |
| 2020 | #73 | DaVon Hamilton | DEF | +0.95 | +0.93 | +0.39 | +0.55 | +0.28 | -0.14 | -0.05 | +1.07 |
| 2015 | #67 | A.J. Cann | OFF | +0.84 | +1.37 | +1.01 | +0.69 | -0.27 | -0.32 | -0.18 | +1.03 |
| 2013 | #210 | Demetrius McCray | DEF | +0.67 | +0.34 | +1.67 | +0.32 | -0.10 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.99 |
| 2017 | #110 | Dede Westbrook | OFF | +0.23 | +0.31 | +0.82 | +0.28 | +0.40 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.76 |
| 2019 | #178 | Gardner Minshew II | OFF | -0.16 | +0.11 | +0.69 | +0.31 | +0.87 | -0.06 | -0.01 | +0.76 |
| 2014 | #93 | Brandon Linder | OFF | +0.78 | +1.33 | +0.52 | +0.59 | -0.54 | -0.21 | -0.12 | +0.73 |
| 2014 | #114 | Aaron Colvin | DEF | +0.30 | +0.20 | +0.79 | +0.24 | +0.29 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.66 |
| 2014 | #3 | Blake Bortles | OFF | +0.75 | +0.69 | +1.44 | +0.60 | -0.99 | -0.26 | -0.05 | +0.62 |
| 2016 | #36 | Myles Jack | DEF | +0.43 | +0.91 | +1.01 | +0.53 | -0.09 | -0.57 | -0.36 | +0.54 |
| 2013 | #135 | Denard Robinson | OFF | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.64 | +0.15 | -0.24 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 2018 | #230 | Leon Jacobs | DEF | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.41 | +0.07 | +0.47 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.44 |
| 2013 | #64 | Dwayne Gratz | DEF | +0.15 | +0.19 | +0.69 | +0.07 | -0.15 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.27 |
| 2014 | #205 | Luke Bowanko | OFF | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.86 | +0.02 | -0.32 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 2020 | #223 | Chris Claybrooks | DEF | +0.52 | -0.08 | -0.24 | +0.05 | +0.15 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 2015 | #229 | Ben Koyack | OFF | +0.66 | +0.34 | +0.40 | +0.16 | -0.78 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 2019 | #7 | Josh Hines-Allen | DEF | +0.80 | +0.84 | +1.10 | +0.51 | -0.52 | -1.04 | -0.70 | +0.03 |
| 2014 | #39 | Marqise Lee | OFF | +0.30 | -0.01 | -0.11 | +0.03 | +0.04 | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| 2015 | #220 | Neal Sterling | OFF | +0.00 | -0.08 | +0.42 | -0.07 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2013 | #33 | Johnathan Cyprien | DEF | -0.12 | +0.40 | +0.65 | -0.11 | -0.21 | -0.37 | -0.25 | -0.16 |
| 2015 | #36 | T.J. Yeldon | OFF | +0.03 | -0.01 | +0.70 | +0.05 | -0.51 | -0.25 | -0.12 | -0.17 |
| 2013 | #208 | Jeremy Harris | DEF | -0.30 | -0.11 | -0.09 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2015 | #180 | Michael Bennett | DEF | -0.19 | -0.17 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2018 | #203 | Tanner Lee | OFF | -0.25 | -0.03 | -0.25 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.22 |
| 2020 | #189 | Jake Luton | OFF | -0.25 | -0.02 | -0.44 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 2018 | #93 | Ronnie Harrison | DEF | -0.76 | -0.40 | -0.42 | -0.44 | +1.39 | -0.28 | -0.18 | -0.28 |
| 2019 | #35 | Jawaan Taylor | OFF | +0.09 | +0.46 | +0.64 | +0.05 | -0.73 | -0.52 | -0.25 | -0.32 |
| 2015 | #139 | Rashad Greene | OFF | -0.01 | -0.23 | -0.60 | -0.14 | +0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.35 |
| 2016 | #226 | Jonathan Woodard | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | -0.29 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2020 | #165 | Collin Johnson | OFF | -0.35 | -0.32 | +0.28 | -0.21 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| 2014 | #222 | Storm Johnson | OFF | -0.32 | -0.01 | -0.49 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2016 | #181 | Tyrone Holmes | DEF | -0.65 | -0.28 | +0.37 | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| 2017 | #222 | Jalen Myrick | DEF | -0.40 | -0.17 | -0.63 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2020 | #140 | Shaquille Quarterman | DEF | +0.69 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.23 | -0.57 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.53 |
| 2020 | #206 | Tyler Davis | OFF | -0.48 | -0.31 | -0.67 | -0.02 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 2020 | #42 | Laviska Shenault Jr. | OFF | -0.35 | -0.18 | -0.05 | -0.31 | -0.13 | -0.18 | -0.08 | -0.54 |
| 2017 | #148 | Blair Brown | DEF | -0.06 | -0.32 | -0.82 | -0.19 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.55 |
| 2018 | #129 | Will Richardson | OFF | +0.33 | -0.41 | -0.67 | -0.23 | -0.29 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.55 |
| 2020 | #157 | Daniel Thomas | DEF | +0.80 | -0.42 | -0.76 | -0.20 | -0.64 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.60 |
| 2017 | #34 | Cam Robinson | OFF | +0.32 | +0.81 | -0.16 | +0.26 | -0.56 | -1.03 | -0.56 | -0.62 |
| 2013 | #101 | Ace Sanders | OFF | -0.02 | -0.21 | -0.45 | -0.15 | -0.63 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| 2019 | #235 | Dontavius Russell | DEF | -0.46 | -0.18 | -0.95 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 2018 | #61 | DJ Chark | OFF | -0.29 | -0.13 | +0.04 | -0.26 | -0.42 | -0.31 | -0.14 | -0.69 |
| 2020 | #116 | Ben Bartch | OFF | -0.03 | -0.25 | -0.49 | -0.29 | -0.48 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.74 |
| 2016 | #5 | Jalen Ramsey | DEF | -1.05 | -0.83 | -0.43 | -0.77 | +1.09 | -0.33 | +0.03 | -0.76 |
| 2019 | #140 | Ryquell Armstead | OFF | -0.31 | -0.27 | -1.04 | -0.24 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.83 |
| 2020 | #137 | Josiah Scott | DEF | -0.62 | -0.40 | -0.48 | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.83 |
| 2014 | #159 | Chris Smith | DEF | -0.70 | -0.72 | -0.46 | -0.52 | +0.05 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.92 |
| 2017 | #240 | Marquez Williams | OFF | -0.51 | -0.08 | -1.67 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.92 |
| 2015 | #104 | James Sample | DEF | -0.63 | -0.32 | -1.35 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.00 |
| 2017 | #68 | Dawuane Smoot | DEF | +1.11 | -0.79 | -0.21 | -0.37 | -1.21 | -0.43 | -0.19 | -1.06 |
| 2013 | #2 | Luke Joeckel | OFF | -0.22 | -0.48 | -0.10 | -0.94 | -0.78 | -0.24 | -0.17 | -1.33 |
| 2019 | #98 | Quincy Williams | DEF | -0.81 | -0.61 | -0.60 | -0.57 | -0.89 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -1.55 |
| 2020 | #20 | K'Lavon Chaisson | DEF | -0.03 | -0.89 | -0.99 | -0.73 | -1.08 | -0.34 | -0.13 | -1.78 |
| 2016 | #201 | Brandon Allen | OFF | -1.24 | -0.90 | -0.15 | -0.95 | — | -0.14 | -0.03 | -1.81 |
| 2018 | #29 | Taven Bryan | DEF | -0.18 | -0.92 | -0.78 | -0.78 | -0.98 | -0.59 | -0.24 | -1.92 |
| 2019 | #69 | Josh Oliver | OFF | -1.29 | -0.97 | -1.02 | -0.63 | — | -0.31 | -0.13 | -1.94 |
| 2014 | #61 | Allen Robinson | OFF | -1.06 | -0.50 | -0.45 | -0.76 | -0.17 | -1.07 | -0.62 | -1.98 |
| 2020 | #9 | C.J. Henderson | DEF | -1.28 | -1.18 | -1.25 | -1.19 | -0.24 | -0.56 | -0.35 | -2.39 |
| 2017 | #4 | Leonard Fournette | OFF | -0.82 | -0.67 | -0.07 | -0.89 | -0.97 | -1.21 | -0.74 | -2.42 |
| 2016 | #103 | Sheldon Day | DEF | -1.25 | -1.29 | -0.91 | -1.14 | -1.17 | -0.39 | -0.19 | -2.60 |
| 2015 | #3 | Dante Fowler | DEF | -1.63 | -2.55 | -1.86 | -2.50 | -2.61 | -4.27 | -4.05 | -8.73 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.