Mike Maccagnan
NYJ · Composite skill θ = -0.52 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.18 to +0.14
Evidence: 34 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2015–2019 · 98% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.07
- maturity discount
- +0.01
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2015–2019NYJ
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | #3 | Quinnen Williams | DEF | +3.49 |
| 2016 | #83 | Jordan Jenkins | DEF | +1.52 |
| 2016 | #235 | Lac Edwards | ST | +0.95 |
| 2017 | #6 | Jamal Adams | DEF | +0.57 |
| 2018 | #107 | Chris Herndon | OFF | +0.19 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #3 | Sam Darnold | OFF | -2.94 |
| 2015 | #37 | Devin Smith | OFF | -2.71 |
| 2015 | #6 | Leonard Williams | DEF | -2.60 |
| 2019 | #68 | Jachai Polite | DEF | -1.77 |
| 2018 | #72 | Nathan Shepherd | DEF | -1.42 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 34 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2019 | #3 | Quinnen Williams | DEF | +0.66 | +0.81 | +0.72 | +0.83 | +0.62 | +2.38 | +1.69 | +3.49 |
| 2016 | #83 | Jordan Jenkins | DEF | +0.66 | +1.00 | +0.94 | +0.73 | +0.76 | -0.11 | -0.07 | +1.52 |
| 2016 | #235 | Lac Edwards | ST | +0.88 | +0.02 | +0.47 | +0.49 | +0.54 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.95 |
| 2017 | #6 | Jamal Adams | DEF | -0.97 | -0.75 | -0.19 | -0.65 | +1.92 | +0.38 | +0.75 | +0.57 |
| 2018 | #107 | Chris Herndon | OFF | -0.03 | +0.22 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.13 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.19 |
| 2016 | #158 | Brandon Shell | OFF | +0.17 | +0.32 | +0.64 | +0.06 | -0.33 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.18 |
| 2019 | #196 | Blessuan Austin | DEF | -0.18 | +0.19 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.28 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.16 |
| 2015 | #103 | Bryce Petty | OFF | -0.15 | +0.01 | -0.22 | +0.02 | +0.47 | -0.03 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 2015 | #223 | Deon Simon | DEF | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2017 | #188 | Elijah McGuire | OFF | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.17 | +0.06 | -0.14 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| 2018 | #180 | Folorunso Fatukasi | DEF | -0.12 | -0.13 | +0.18 | -0.17 | -0.19 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.28 |
| 2016 | #20 | Darron Lee | DEF | -0.23 | -0.03 | +0.77 | -0.16 | -0.54 | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.31 |
| 2018 | #204 | Trenton Cannon | OFF | -0.11 | -0.15 | +0.41 | -0.12 | -0.59 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.33 |
| 2016 | #241 | Charone Peake | OFF | +0.30 | -0.08 | +0.13 | -0.07 | -0.84 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2015 | #82 | Lorenzo Mauldin | DEF | -0.24 | -0.44 | +0.10 | -0.27 | -0.22 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.47 |
| 2017 | #150 | Jordan Leggett | OFF | -0.34 | -0.22 | -0.94 | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 2017 | #141 | Chad Hansen | OFF | -0.30 | -0.27 | -0.43 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2017 | #204 | Derrick Jones | DEF | -0.45 | -0.20 | -0.74 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2017 | #181 | Dylan Donahue | DEF | -0.48 | -0.21 | -0.80 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 2017 | #197 | Jeremy Clark | DEF | -0.51 | -0.21 | -0.80 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 2019 | #121 | Trevon Wesco | OFF | +0.15 | -0.12 | -0.27 | -0.13 | -1.07 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.72 |
| 2015 | #152 | Jarvis Harrison | OFF | -0.61 | -0.43 | -0.91 | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 2016 | #51 | Christian Hackenberg | OFF | -0.61 | -0.44 | -0.91 | -0.40 | — | -0.06 | -0.01 | -1.08 |
| 2017 | #39 | Marcus Maye | DEF | -0.39 | +0.18 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.31 | -0.80 | -0.52 | -1.08 |
| 2017 | #79 | ArDarius Stewart | OFF | -0.47 | -0.44 | -1.13 | -0.39 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.12 |
| 2019 | #157 | Blake Cashman | DEF | -0.83 | -0.56 | -0.78 | -0.51 | -0.18 | -0.13 | -0.09 | -1.18 |
| 2016 | #118 | Juston Burris | DEF | -0.28 | -0.65 | -0.26 | -0.44 | -0.97 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -1.20 |
| 2019 | #92 | Chuma Edoga | OFF | -0.69 | -0.71 | -0.84 | -0.64 | -0.26 | -0.23 | -0.12 | -1.37 |
| 2018 | #179 | Parry Nickerson | DEF | -0.84 | -0.74 | -0.23 | -0.66 | — | -0.13 | -0.10 | -1.38 |
| 2018 | #72 | Nathan Shepherd | DEF | +0.27 | -0.74 | -0.36 | -0.56 | -1.29 | -0.30 | -0.13 | -1.42 |
| 2019 | #68 | Jachai Polite | DEF | -1.02 | -0.68 | -1.60 | -0.59 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.77 |
| 2015 | #6 | Leonard Williams | DEF | -0.75 | -0.42 | +0.28 | -0.79 | -0.77 | -1.54 | -1.50 | -2.60 |
| 2015 | #37 | Devin Smith | OFF | -1.03 | -0.98 | -1.76 | -0.93 | -1.49 | -0.32 | -0.15 | -2.71 |
| 2018 | #3 | Sam Darnold | OFF | -0.65 | -0.73 | -0.39 | -1.21 | -2.17 | -1.08 | -0.23 | -2.94 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.