Reggie McKenzie
LV · Composite skill θ = -0.75 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.28 to -0.21
Evidence: 59 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 2012–2018 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.53
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2012–2018LVSpans Oakland→Las Vegas relocation
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #36 | Derek Carr | OFF | +4.24 |
| 2013 | #184 | Mychal Rivera | OFF | +1.40 |
| 2012 | #129 | Miles Burris | DEF | +0.90 |
| 2016 | #234 | Vadal Alexander | OFF | +0.62 |
| 2016 | #143 | DeAndre Washington | OFF | +0.58 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | #4 | Amari Cooper | OFF | -3.46 |
| 2013 | #12 | D.J. Hayden | DEF | -3.32 |
| 2015 | #35 | Mario Edwards | DEF | -2.96 |
| 2014 | #235 | Shelby Harris | DEF | -2.93 |
| 2016 | #44 | Jihad Ward | DEF | -2.73 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 59 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2014 | #36 | Derek Carr | OFF | +1.53 | +2.29 | +2.13 | +2.72 | -0.36 | +2.34 | -0.18 | +4.24 |
| 2013 | #184 | Mychal Rivera | OFF | +0.94 | +0.23 | +1.48 | +0.59 | +0.48 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.40 |
| 2012 | #129 | Miles Burris | DEF | +0.25 | +0.54 | +1.06 | +0.35 | +0.25 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.90 |
| 2016 | #234 | Vadal Alexander | OFF | +0.10 | -0.06 | -0.15 | +0.05 | +1.29 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.62 |
| 2016 | #143 | DeAndre Washington | OFF | +0.67 | -0.08 | +0.57 | +0.27 | +0.16 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.58 |
| 2014 | #81 | Gabe Jackson | OFF | +0.60 | +1.20 | +1.09 | +0.48 | -0.58 | -0.56 | -0.35 | +0.46 |
| 2016 | #194 | Cory James | DEF | +0.01 | +0.13 | +0.56 | +0.07 | +0.34 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.42 |
| 2012 | #189 | Christo Bilukidi | DEF | -0.01 | -0.09 | +1.02 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 2015 | #68 | Clive Walford | OFF | +0.18 | -0.28 | +0.36 | +0.09 | +0.30 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.24 |
| 2017 | #168 | Marquel Lee | DEF | +0.39 | +0.20 | +0.08 | +0.11 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| 2013 | #205 | Stacy McGee | DEF | +0.19 | -0.12 | +0.31 | -0.09 | +0.34 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.21 |
| 2013 | #66 | Sio Moore | DEF | -0.26 | +0.05 | +0.36 | -0.04 | +0.40 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.19 |
| 2013 | #233 | David Bass | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | +1.05 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2012 | #168 | Juron Criner | OFF | -0.17 | -0.14 | +0.81 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2014 | #219 | T.J. Carrie | DEF | +0.18 | +0.19 | +1.09 | -0.16 | -0.51 | -0.10 | -0.08 | +0.06 |
| 2014 | #107 | Justin Ellis | DEF | +0.10 | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.08 | +0.44 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +0.05 |
| 2017 | #244 | Treyvon Hester | DEF | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.47 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2017 | #88 | Eddie Vanderdoes | DEF | -0.42 | -0.09 | -0.54 | -0.13 | +0.88 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 2013 | #209 | Brice Butler | OFF | -0.02 | -0.20 | +0.80 | -0.12 | -0.28 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| 2015 | #242 | Dexter McDonald | DEF | +0.22 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.05 | -0.33 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2018 | #173 | Johnny Townsend | ST | -0.25 | +0.06 | -0.53 | +0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| 2017 | #221 | Shalom Luani | DEF | -0.13 | -0.14 | +0.09 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2014 | #116 | Keith McGill | DEF | +0.64 | -0.23 | -0.11 | -0.03 | -0.60 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| 2014 | #247 | Jonathan Dowling | DEF | -0.24 | -0.07 | -0.42 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2018 | #15 | Kolton Miller | OFF | +0.91 | +1.27 | +1.01 | +0.50 | -1.42 | -1.15 | -0.62 | -0.27 |
| 2018 | #228 | Marcell Ateman | OFF | -0.06 | +0.00 | -0.27 | -0.08 | -0.22 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2013 | #172 | Nick Kasa | OFF | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.74 | +0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2015 | #161 | Neiron Ball | DEF | -0.52 | -0.24 | +0.46 | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.33 |
| 2013 | #112 | Tyler Wilson | OFF | -0.33 | -0.11 | -0.28 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.35 |
| 2018 | #57 | P.J. Hall | DEF | -0.22 | -0.12 | -0.34 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| 2018 | #65 | Brandon Parker | OFF | +0.30 | -0.04 | -0.58 | -0.07 | -0.41 | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.48 |
| 2015 | #221 | Andre Debose | OFF | -0.46 | -0.11 | -0.58 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2015 | #140 | Ben Heeney | DEF | -0.25 | -0.21 | -0.26 | -0.16 | -0.43 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 2017 | #242 | Elijah Hood | OFF | -0.48 | -0.08 | -0.73 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2016 | #100 | Connor Cook | OFF | -0.40 | -0.21 | -0.57 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.60 |
| 2013 | #42 | Menelik Watson | OFF | -0.27 | -0.35 | -0.48 | -0.34 | -0.04 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.62 |
| 2015 | #218 | Anthony Morris | OFF | -0.48 | -0.31 | -0.61 | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2018 | #140 | Maurice Hurst Jr. | DEF | -0.33 | -0.38 | +0.03 | -0.37 | -0.37 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.70 |
| 2015 | #179 | Max Valles | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 2016 | #14 | Karl Joseph | DEF | -0.18 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.45 | -0.26 | -0.29 | -0.19 | -0.71 |
| 2017 | #231 | Jylan Ware | OFF | -0.49 | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 2016 | #75 | Shilique Calhoun | DEF | -0.20 | -0.48 | -0.01 | -0.29 | -0.84 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| 2013 | #181 | Latavius Murray | OFF | -0.70 | -0.35 | +0.22 | -0.49 | -0.04 | -0.38 | -0.27 | -0.87 |
| 2017 | #24 | Gareon Conley | DEF | -0.56 | -0.36 | -0.84 | -0.47 | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.89 |
| 2018 | #216 | Azeem Victor | DEF | -0.63 | -0.28 | -1.04 | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
| 2018 | #110 | Nick Nelson | DEF | -0.49 | -0.34 | -0.99 | -0.26 | -0.93 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.24 |
| 2017 | #56 | Obi Melifonwu | DEF | -0.82 | -0.60 | -1.27 | -0.44 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.41 |
| 2012 | #158 | Jack Crawford | DEF | -0.88 | -0.88 | +0.06 | -0.77 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -1.42 |
| 2015 | #128 | Jon Feliciano | OFF | -0.33 | -0.99 | -1.09 | -0.81 | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -1.53 |
| 2012 | #230 | Nathan Stupar | DEF | -1.08 | -0.67 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -1.57 |
| 2018 | #87 | Arden Key | DEF | -0.55 | -0.73 | -0.34 | -0.64 | -1.23 | -0.25 | -0.11 | -1.65 |
| 2012 | #95 | Tony Bergstrom | OFF | -0.91 | -1.14 | -0.27 | -0.97 | — | -0.26 | -0.16 | -1.95 |
| 2017 | #129 | David Sharpe | OFF | -1.00 | -1.14 | -1.08 | -0.98 | -0.41 | -0.31 | -0.19 | -2.03 |
| 2014 | #5 | Khalil Mack | DEF | -1.24 | -0.90 | +0.13 | -0.68 | +0.37 | -2.64 | -0.17 | -2.24 |
| 2016 | #44 | Jihad Ward | DEF | -1.50 | -1.20 | -1.12 | -1.24 | -0.49 | -0.83 | -0.38 | -2.73 |
| 2014 | #235 | Shelby Harris | DEF | -1.73 | -1.39 | -0.87 | -1.41 | — | -0.22 | -0.15 | -2.93 |
| 2015 | #35 | Mario Edwards | DEF | -1.53 | -1.18 | -1.33 | -1.31 | -0.06 | -1.26 | -0.60 | -2.96 |
| 2013 | #12 | D.J. Hayden | DEF | -0.85 | -1.08 | -0.60 | -1.29 | -2.02 | -0.96 | -0.71 | -3.32 |
| 2015 | #4 | Amari Cooper | OFF | -1.00 | -0.94 | -0.46 | -1.19 | -0.41 | -1.77 | -1.94 | -3.46 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.