Eric DeCosta
BAL · Composite skill θ = +0.29 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.27 to +1.84
Evidence: 63 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 2019–2025 · 49% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.37
- maturity discount
- -0.30
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2019–2025BALNewsome heir apparent
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #14 | Kyle Hamilton | DEF | +5.23 |
| 2022 | #25 | Tyler Linderbaum | OFF | +3.09 |
| 2023 | #22 | Zay Flowers | OFF | +2.88 |
| 2020 | #71 | Nnamdi Madubuike | DEF | +2.54 |
| 2022 | #130 | Jordan Stout | ST | +2.41 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #45 | David Ojabo | DEF | -1.61 |
| 2021 | #184 | Ben Mason | OFF | -1.40 |
| 2020 | #143 | Ben Bredeson | OFF | -1.18 |
| 2019 | #127 | Iman Marshall | DEF | -1.13 |
| 2021 | #171 | Daelin Hayes | DEF | -1.11 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 63 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2022 | #14 | Kyle Hamilton | DEF | +0.40 | +0.40 | +0.34 | +0.50 | +1.93 | +3.08 | +4.19 | +5.23 |
| 2022 | #25 | Tyler Linderbaum | OFF | +0.53 | +0.78 | +0.53 | +0.69 | +1.26 | +3.10 | -0.08 | +3.09 |
| 2023 | #22 | Zay Flowers | OFF | +0.29 | +0.57 | +0.58 | +0.75 | +2.03 | +2.07 | -0.05 | +2.88 |
| 2020 | #71 | Nnamdi Madubuike | DEF | +0.75 | +1.06 | +0.46 | +1.15 | +1.51 | +0.95 | -0.05 | +2.54 |
| 2022 | #130 | Jordan Stout | ST | +0.98 | +0.02 | +0.28 | +0.46 | +0.32 | +1.05 | +2.12 | +2.41 |
| 2020 | #92 | Devin Duvernay | OFF | +0.36 | -0.02 | +0.20 | -0.09 | -0.57 | +2.03 | +2.08 | +1.90 |
| 2020 | #28 | Patrick Queen | DEF | +0.18 | +0.67 | +0.50 | +0.80 | +1.54 | +0.69 | -0.22 | +1.85 |
| 2022 | #139 | Isaiah Likely | OFF | +0.85 | +0.40 | +0.43 | +0.68 | +1.66 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.70 |
| 2025 | #186 | Tyler Loop | ST | +0.30 | +0.52 | +0.92 | +0.56 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.14 |
| 2024 | #62 | Roger Rosengarten | OFF | +0.24 | +0.38 | +0.47 | +0.36 | +0.84 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.93 |
| 2021 | #104 | Brandon Stephens | DEF | +0.69 | +0.81 | +0.85 | +0.35 | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.83 |
| 2023 | #229 | Andrew Vorhees | OFF | +0.46 | +0.38 | +0.55 | +0.28 | +0.46 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.83 |
| 2022 | #110 | Daniel Faalele | OFF | +0.88 | +0.43 | +0.45 | +0.43 | +0.03 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.78 |
| 2022 | #76 | Travis Jones | DEF | +0.77 | +0.48 | +0.95 | +0.33 | -0.46 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.63 |
| 2020 | #170 | Broderick Washington Jr. | DEF | +0.89 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.30 | +0.20 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.59 |
| 2023 | #124 | Tavius Robinson | DEF | +0.56 | +0.25 | +0.57 | +0.28 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.56 |
| 2020 | #219 | Geno Stone | DEF | +0.43 | +0.11 | +0.40 | +0.19 | +0.37 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.55 |
| 2024 | #218 | Devin Leary | OFF | +0.15 | +0.31 | +0.41 | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.50 |
| 2025 | #210 | Aeneas Peebles | DEF | +0.10 | +0.25 | +0.46 | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.45 |
| 2025 | #203 | LaJohntay Wester | OFF | +0.35 | +0.23 | +0.38 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.44 |
| 2025 | #212 | Robert Longerbeam | DEF | -0.06 | +0.23 | +0.30 | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2025 | #129 | Teddye Buchanan | DEF | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.44 | +0.15 | -0.11 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.29 |
| 2025 | #243 | Garrett Dellinger | OFF | -0.01 | +0.09 | +0.55 | +0.07 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2023 | #86 | Trenton Simpson | DEF | +0.48 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.14 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.25 |
| 2025 | #178 | Bilhal Kone | DEF | -0.12 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2020 | #98 | Malik Harrison | DEF | +0.69 | +0.19 | -0.08 | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.09 | +0.12 |
| 2024 | #250 | Sanoussi Kane | ST | +0.40 | +0.16 | +0.38 | +0.19 | -0.58 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 2024 | #228 | Nick Samac | OFF | -0.17 | -0.05 | +0.43 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2023 | #199 | Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu | OFF | -0.14 | -0.06 | +0.20 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 2025 | #141 | Carson Vinson | OFF | -0.04 | -0.08 | +0.09 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2024 | #93 | Adisa Isaac | DEF | -0.18 | +0.02 | +0.03 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2022 | #128 | Charlie Kolar | OFF | +0.43 | +0.01 | -0.06 | +0.13 | -0.62 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| 2019 | #85 | Jaylon Ferguson | DEF | +0.05 | -0.23 | -0.81 | -0.05 | +0.51 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| 2021 | #27 | Rashod Bateman | OFF | +0.36 | +0.34 | -0.08 | +0.03 | -0.36 | -0.28 | -0.12 | -0.16 |
| 2019 | #197 | Trace McSorley | OFF | -0.21 | -0.06 | -0.11 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.21 |
| 2019 | #25 | Marquise Brown | OFF | -0.43 | -0.15 | -0.03 | -0.11 | +0.99 | -0.65 | -0.30 | -0.24 |
| 2019 | #93 | Miles Boykin | OFF | +0.13 | +0.18 | +0.26 | -0.17 | -0.60 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.25 |
| 2023 | #157 | Kyu Blu Kelly | DEF | -0.44 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2021 | #31 | Odafe Oweh | DEF | +0.45 | -0.22 | -0.38 | -0.09 | -0.15 | -0.18 | -0.06 | -0.29 |
| 2019 | #123 | Ben Powers | OFF | -0.04 | +0.06 | +0.07 | -0.12 | -0.27 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.30 |
| 2024 | #165 | Rasheen Ali | OFF | +0.21 | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.03 | -1.00 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2020 | #106 | Tyre Phillips | OFF | -0.32 | -0.30 | -0.29 | -0.25 | +0.19 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.39 |
| 2019 | #113 | Justice Hill | OFF | +0.82 | -0.58 | +0.19 | +0.07 | -0.79 | -0.24 | -0.12 | -0.40 |
| 2022 | #119 | Jalyn Armour-Davis | DEF | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.39 | -0.15 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 2025 | #91 | Emery Jones | OFF | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.19 | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2024 | #113 | Devontez Walker | OFF | +0.12 | +0.01 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.78 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2020 | #201 | James Proche | OFF | +0.22 | -0.43 | -0.19 | -0.28 | -0.23 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.44 |
| 2022 | #196 | Tyler Badie | OFF | -0.53 | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.44 |
| 2021 | #94 | Ben Cleveland | OFF | +0.63 | -0.54 | -1.16 | -0.26 | +0.15 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.50 |
| 2024 | #130 | T.J. Tampa | DEF | +0.22 | -0.02 | +0.01 | +0.03 | -1.22 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2024 | #30 | Nate Wiggins | DEF | +0.04 | +0.09 | +0.26 | -0.17 | -1.27 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 2022 | #141 | Damarion Williams | DEF | -0.27 | -0.28 | -0.95 | -0.14 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2021 | #131 | Tylan Wallace | OFF | +0.85 | -0.34 | -0.24 | -0.25 | -1.25 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.71 |
| 2020 | #55 | J.K. Dobbins | OFF | -0.66 | -0.54 | -0.84 | -0.31 | +0.56 | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.80 |
| 2025 | #27 | Malaki Starks | ST | -0.21 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.22 | -1.25 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.85 |
| 2025 | #59 | Mike Green | DEF | -0.03 | -0.12 | +0.17 | -0.09 | -1.73 | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.91 |
| 2019 | #160 | Daylon Mack | DEF | -0.65 | -0.30 | -1.16 | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.95 |
| 2021 | #160 | Shaun Wade | DEF | -0.75 | -0.37 | -0.85 | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.97 |
| 2021 | #171 | Daelin Hayes | DEF | -0.68 | -0.33 | -1.46 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.11 |
| 2019 | #127 | Iman Marshall | DEF | -0.69 | -0.40 | -1.33 | -0.28 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.13 |
| 2020 | #143 | Ben Bredeson | OFF | -0.71 | -0.74 | -0.25 | -0.54 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | -1.18 |
| 2021 | #184 | Ben Mason | OFF | -0.69 | -0.27 | -2.18 | -0.31 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.40 |
| 2022 | #45 | David Ojabo | DEF | -0.25 | -0.71 | -1.46 | -0.53 | -0.88 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -1.61 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.