Marty Hurney
CAR · Composite skill θ = +0.21 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.34 to +0.75
Composite θ
+0.21
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.34–+0.75
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
77%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Good
directional only
Evidence: 119 mapped picks across 15 draft classes, 2002–2020 · 98% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2012CARFirst stint
- 2017–2020CARSecond stint
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | #9 | Luke Kuechly | DEF | +11.20 |
| 2007 | #59 | Ryan Kalil | OFF | +4.63 |
| 2010 | #175 | Greg Hardy | DEF | +3.64 |
| 2007 | #25 | Jon Beason | DEF | +2.86 |
| 2011 | #1 | Cam Newton | OFF | +2.75 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #207 | Joe Berger | OFF | -3.91 |
| 2005 | #14 | Thomas Davis | DEF | -3.88 |
| 2005 | #79 | Evan Mathis | OFF | -3.46 |
| 2002 | #2 | Julius Peppers | DEF | -2.53 |
| 2011 | #65 | Terrell McClain | DEF | -2.13 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 119 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2012 | #9 | Luke Kuechly | DEF | +1.04 | +1.56 | +1.83 | +3.00 | +2.57 | +3.65 | +10.21 | +11.20 |
| 2007 | #59 | Ryan Kalil | OFF | +1.09 | +1.86 | -0.32 | +1.62 | +0.28 | +2.13 | +3.46 | +4.63 |
| 2010 | #175 | Greg Hardy | DEF | +0.89 | +0.85 | +1.04 | +1.08 | +4.36 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +3.64 |
| 2007 | #25 | Jon Beason | DEF | -0.08 | +0.44 | -1.07 | +0.82 | — | +2.78 | +1.78 | +2.86 |
| 2011 | #1 | Cam Newton | OFF | +1.22 | +1.30 | +0.21 | +2.83 | +0.46 | -1.10 | +1.49 | +2.75 |
| 2003 | #8 | Jordan Gross | OFF | +1.75 | +2.30 | -1.04 | +1.46 | -0.26 | +0.75 | +1.06 | +2.51 |
| 2004 | #28 | Chris Gamble | DEF | +1.29 | +1.86 | — | +1.01 | — | -0.35 | -0.26 | +2.29 |
| 2020 | #64 | Jeremy Chinn | DEF | +0.12 | +0.56 | +0.14 | +0.81 | +2.86 | -0.19 | -0.11 | +1.95 |
| 2007 | #83 | Charles Johnson | DEF | +1.56 | +1.74 | -0.07 | +1.11 | +0.82 | -0.32 | -0.17 | +1.79 |
| 2019 | #16 | Brian Burns | DEF | +0.32 | +0.44 | +0.94 | +0.40 | +0.25 | +1.63 | -0.23 | +1.59 |
| 2017 | #64 | Taylor Moton | OFF | +1.78 | +2.06 | +1.72 | +1.17 | -0.91 | -0.64 | -0.36 | +1.48 |
| 2006 | #155 | Jeff King | OFF | +0.96 | +1.23 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.23 |
| 2003 | #145 | Kindal Moorehead | DEF | +1.20 | +0.12 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.05 |
| 2009 | #216 | Captain Munnerlyn | DEF | +1.18 | +0.57 | +0.58 | +0.31 | +0.20 | -0.10 | -0.09 | +0.94 |
| 2018 | #161 | Jermaine Carter Jr. | DEF | +0.84 | +0.46 | +0.89 | +0.33 | +0.15 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.94 |
| 2005 | #169 | Geoff Hangartner | OFF | +0.95 | +0.61 | +0.05 | +0.45 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.92 |
| 2012 | #207 | Brad Nortman | ST | +0.92 | +0.07 | — | +0.45 | +0.45 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.92 |
| 2004 | #94 | Travelle Wharton | OFF | +1.16 | +1.73 | -0.17 | +1.09 | -0.72 | -0.24 | -0.16 | +0.89 |
| 2003 | #119 | Colin Branch | DEF | +0.67 | +0.37 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.80 |
| 2020 | #7 | Derrick Brown | DEF | +0.51 | +0.76 | +0.87 | +0.21 | -0.54 | +0.59 | -0.22 | +0.74 |
| 2004 | #232 | Michael Gaines | OFF | +0.50 | +0.42 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.69 |
| 2002 | #34 | DeShaun Foster | OFF | +0.30 | +0.24 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | +0.68 |
| 2012 | #143 | Josh Norman | DEF | -0.73 | -0.46 | -0.62 | -0.49 | +1.59 | -0.43 | +1.76 | +0.62 |
| 2003 | #82 | Ricky Manning | DEF | +0.36 | +0.27 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.61 |
| 2004 | #163 | Drew Carter | OFF | +0.41 | +0.21 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.61 |
| 2019 | #212 | Dennis Daley | OFF | +0.23 | +0.17 | +0.64 | +0.09 | +0.24 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.50 |
| 2018 | #55 | Donte Jackson | DEF | +0.36 | +0.91 | +0.50 | +0.18 | +0.31 | -0.45 | -0.28 | +0.48 |
| 2020 | #184 | Bravvion Roy | DEF | +0.44 | +0.14 | -0.19 | +0.18 | +0.50 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 2018 | #24 | D.J. Moore | OFF | +0.20 | +0.57 | +1.09 | +0.50 | +0.31 | -0.94 | -0.45 | +0.32 |
| 2008 | #67 | Charles Godfrey | DEF | +0.66 | +1.14 | -0.59 | +0.51 | -0.50 | -0.15 | -0.10 | +0.28 |
| 2010 | #202 | Jordan Pugh | DEF | +0.25 | +0.02 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 2007 | #226 | C.J. Wilson | DEF | +0.24 | +0.01 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2010 | #198 | David Gettis | OFF | +0.02 | +0.31 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2003 | #76 | Mike Seidman | OFF | +0.37 | +0.07 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2005 | #149 | Adam Seward | DEF | +0.45 | -0.12 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 2002 | #137 | Randy Fasani | OFF | -0.02 | +0.12 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2006 | #237 | Stanley McClover | DEF | +0.04 | +0.06 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2010 | #249 | Robert McClain | DEF | -0.21 | -0.31 | +0.43 | -0.30 | +0.77 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.18 |
| 2011 | #97 | Sione Fua | DEF | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.55 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| 2010 | #204 | Tony Pike | OFF | -0.05 | +0.13 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2006 | #27 | DeAngelo Williams | OFF | +0.65 | +0.52 | -1.20 | +0.86 | +0.47 | -0.21 | -0.82 | +0.13 |
| 2012 | #103 | Frank Alexander | DEF | +0.05 | -0.13 | +0.30 | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2006 | #58 | Richard Marshall | DEF | +0.39 | +0.12 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.23 | -0.17 | +0.11 |
| 2009 | #59 | Sherrod Martin | DEF | +0.27 | +0.19 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.09 |
| 2006 | #88 | James Anderson | DEF | +0.54 | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.28 | -0.22 | +0.09 |
| 2002 | #258 | Brad Franklin | DEF | -0.22 | +0.10 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2007 | #155 | Dante Rosario | OFF | +0.40 | -0.07 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.04 |
| 2003 | #226 | Walter Young | OFF | -0.09 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2010 | #223 | R.J. Stanford | DEF | -0.08 | -0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2003 | #247 | Casey Moore | OFF | -0.26 | +0.14 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2020 | #221 | Stantley Thomas-Oliver | DEF | +0.00 | -0.25 | -0.13 | -0.08 | +0.30 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| 2009 | #111 | Mike Goodson | OFF | +0.07 | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 2005 | #121 | Stefan Lefors | OFF | -0.18 | +0.03 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2012 | #216 | D.J. Campbell | DEF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2004 | #196 | Sean Tufts | DEF | -0.05 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2006 | #121 | Nate Salley | DEF | +0.06 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2008 | #221 | Hilee Taylor | DEF | -0.03 | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2010 | #89 | Armanti Edwards | OFF | +0.29 | -0.32 | +0.44 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| 2008 | #74 | Dan Connor | DEF | +0.17 | -0.09 | +0.02 | -0.09 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| 2008 | #250 | Mackenzy Bernadeau | OFF | +0.23 | -0.13 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| 2005 | #171 | Ben Emanuel | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2004 | #62 | Keary Colbert | OFF | +0.05 | +0.26 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.25 |
| 2002 | #213 | Pete Campion | OFF | -0.30 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2011 | #132 | Kealoha Pilares | OFF | -0.07 | -0.20 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 2020 | #113 | Troy Pride Jr. | DEF | -0.49 | -0.24 | +0.14 | -0.21 | +0.12 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.29 |
| 2010 | #78 | Brandon LaFell | OFF | -0.06 | -0.09 | +0.08 | -0.08 | -0.02 | -0.28 | -0.16 | -0.29 |
| 2011 | #244 | Lee Ziemba | OFF | -0.21 | -0.20 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2020 | #38 | Yetur Gross-Matos | DEF | +0.04 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.24 | -0.09 | -0.29 |
| 2010 | #124 | Eric Norwood | DEF | +0.03 | -0.29 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2002 | #174 | Keith Heinrich | OFF | -0.51 | -0.24 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2007 | #118 | Ryne Robinson | OFF | -0.14 | -0.18 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2018 | #101 | Ian Thomas | OFF | +0.94 | +0.47 | +0.03 | -0.33 | -1.07 | -0.31 | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| 2009 | #128 | Tony Fiammetta | OFF | -0.17 | +0.00 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.46 |
| 2017 | #8 | Christian McCaffrey | OFF | -0.54 | -0.29 | +0.69 | +0.35 | -0.35 | -1.46 | +0.63 | -0.47 |
| 2008 | #241 | Geoff Schwartz | OFF | -0.15 | -0.17 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.49 |
| 2008 | #181 | Nick Hayden | DEF | -0.38 | -0.22 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2011 | #203 | Zachary Williams | OFF | -0.43 | -0.26 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2017 | #152 | Corn Elder | DEF | +0.08 | -0.26 | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.64 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2002 | #100 | Dante Wesley | DEF | +0.84 | -0.88 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.52 |
| 2007 | #45 | Dwayne Jarrett | OFF | -0.01 | -0.43 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 2008 | #19 | Jeff Otah | OFF | -0.28 | -0.20 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.55 |
| 2018 | #242 | Kendrick Norton | DEF | -0.50 | -0.14 | -0.71 | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2009 | #163 | Duke Robinson | OFF | -0.47 | -0.30 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2011 | #166 | Lawrence Wilson | DEF | -0.57 | -0.22 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2005 | #89 | Atiyyah Ellison | DEF | -0.59 | -0.25 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2019 | #237 | Terry Godwin | OFF | -0.53 | -0.18 | -0.51 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2007 | #164 | Tim Shaw | DEF | -0.37 | -0.34 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.62 |
| 2009 | #93 | Corvey Irvin | DEF | -0.58 | -0.28 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 2012 | #104 | Joe Adams | OFF | -0.43 | -0.30 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2002 | #145 | Kyle Johnson | OFF | -0.64 | -0.19 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2011 | #98 | Brandon Hogan | DEF | -0.59 | -0.32 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2012 | #40 | Amini Silatolu | OFF | +0.00 | -0.32 | -1.07 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.22 | -0.12 | -0.74 |
| 2019 | #100 | Will Grier | OFF | -0.46 | -0.23 | -0.84 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 2018 | #234 | Andre Smith | DEF | -0.34 | -0.42 | +0.08 | -0.35 | -0.69 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.78 |
| 2010 | #48 | Jimmy Clausen | OFF | -0.38 | -0.25 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 2008 | #141 | Gary Barnidge | OFF | +0.16 | -0.61 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.82 |
| 2005 | #189 | Jovan Haye | DEF | -0.70 | -0.35 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| 2017 | #192 | Alex Armah | OFF | +0.40 | -0.39 | +0.37 | -0.54 | -1.22 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.84 |
| 2005 | #54 | Eric Shelton | OFF | -0.53 | -0.38 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.88 |
| 2019 | #154 | Jordan Scarlett | OFF | -0.50 | -0.27 | -0.89 | -0.30 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.89 |
| 2003 | #50 | Bruce Nelson | OFF | -0.38 | -0.61 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 2009 | #43 | Everette Brown | DEF | -0.34 | -0.64 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.92 |
| 2018 | #136 | Marquis Haynes | DEF | +0.58 | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.35 | -0.85 | -0.13 | -0.09 | -1.08 |
| 2020 | #152 | Kenny Robinson Jr. | DEF | -0.27 | -0.34 | -1.31 | -0.22 | -0.61 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.09 |
| 2017 | #77 | Daeshon Hall | DEF | -0.82 | -0.49 | -0.79 | -0.39 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.13 |
| 2018 | #85 | Rashaan Gaulden | DEF | -0.27 | -0.51 | -0.88 | -0.33 | -0.72 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.13 |
| 2019 | #115 | Christian Miller | DEF | -0.70 | -0.50 | -1.56 | -0.39 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.36 |
| 2002 | #73 | Will Witherspoon | DEF | -0.72 | -0.20 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.56 | -0.47 | -1.38 |
| 2017 | #233 | Harrison Butker | ST | -1.33 | -0.55 | -0.32 | -0.54 | — | -0.13 | -0.13 | -1.41 |
| 2019 | #37 | Greg Little | OFF | -0.76 | -0.83 | -1.28 | -0.69 | -0.30 | -0.17 | -0.08 | -1.58 |
| 2017 | #40 | Curtis Samuel | OFF | -0.54 | -0.57 | -0.25 | -0.55 | -0.39 | -0.95 | -0.48 | -1.63 |
| 2008 | #13 | Jonathan Stewart | OFF | +0.86 | -0.23 | -0.32 | +0.44 | -1.13 | -2.07 | -1.38 | -1.97 |
| 2006 | #89 | Rashad Butler | OFF | -1.23 | -1.00 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -2.05 |
| 2006 | #234 | Will Montgomery | OFF | -1.20 | -0.96 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.08 | -0.07 | -2.08 |
| 2011 | #65 | Terrell McClain | DEF | -1.29 | -0.83 | — | -0.89 | — | -0.25 | -0.12 | -2.13 |
| 2002 | #2 | Julius Peppers | DEF | -0.05 | +0.02 | -2.48 | +0.34 | -2.19 | -0.21 | -1.33 | -2.53 |
| 2005 | #79 | Evan Mathis | OFF | -1.55 | -1.41 | — | -1.47 | — | -0.59 | -0.42 | -3.46 |
| 2005 | #14 | Thomas Davis | DEF | +0.69 | +1.20 | -0.21 | +0.77 | +0.00 | -4.71 | -4.96 | -3.88 |
| 2005 | #207 | Joe Berger | OFF | -2.08 | -1.72 | — | -1.77 | — | -0.26 | -0.23 | -3.91 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.