2016 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for Les Snead

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 253 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2016 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2016 class highlighted · 36 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1
1.1	Jared Goff	QB	LAR	Les Snead	106	69	5
4.135	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	Jerry Jones	104	139	4
5.165	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	John Dorsey	98	91	8	5
2.37	Chris Jones	DT	KC	John Dorsey	96	155	7	3
2.45	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	Jon Robinson	85	119	5	1
1.5	Jalen Ramsey	CB	JAX	David Caldwell	84	51	8	3
3.78	Joe Thuney	G	NE	Bill Belichick	84	80	4	3
1.7	DeForest Buckner	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	76	63	3	1
1.4	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	68	118	3	1
3.64	Kevin Byard	S	TEN	Jon Robinson	66	120	3	3

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.51	Christian Hackenberg	QB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	0	1
2.59	Roberto Aguayo	K	TB	Jason Licht	0	1
1.26	Paxton Lynch	QB	DEN	John Elway	2	2
2.33	Kevin Dodd	DE	TEN	Jon Robinson	2	2
2.60	Cyrus Jones	CB	NE	Bill Belichick	4	4
1.28	Joshua Garnett	G	SF	Trent Baalke	5	5
2.39	Noah Spence	DE	TB	Jason Licht	5	6
2.53	Su'a Cravens	OLB	WAS	Bruce Allen	5	3
1.15	Corey Coleman	WR	CLE	Sashi Brown	6	3
1.29	Robert Nkemdiche	DT	ARI	Steve Keim	6	6

All picks (253) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1
1.1	Jared Goff	QB	LAR	Les Snead	106	69	69	2
1.2	Carson Wentz	QB	PHI	Howie Roseman	63	68	68	1
1.3	Joey Bosa	DE	LAC	Tom Telesco	62	107	93	5
1.4	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	68	118	104	3	1
1.5	Jalen Ramsey	CB	JAX	David Caldwell	84	51	51	2	1
1.6	Ronnie Stanley	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	64	120	120	2	1
1.7	DeForest Buckner	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	76	63	63	1
1.8	Jack Conklin	T	TEN	Jon Robinson	55	57	57		1
1.9	Leonard Floyd	OLB	CHI	Ryan Pace	63	54	54
1.10	Eli Apple	CB	NYG	Jerry Reese	28	30	23
1.11	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	TB	Jason Licht	18	35	34
1.12	Sheldon Rankins	DT	NO	Mickey Loomis	41	63	33
1.13	Laremy Tunsil	T	MIA	Chris Grier	60	44	44
1.14	Karl Joseph	S	LV	Reggie McKenzie	16	49	41
1.15	Corey Coleman	WR	CLE	Sashi Brown	6	19	18
1.16	Taylor Decker	T	DET	Bob Quinn	59	140	140	1
1.17	Keanu Neal	S	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	25	49	48	1
1.18	Ryan Kelly	C	IND	Ryan Grigson	56	121	121	4
1.19	Shaq Lawson	DE	BUF	Doug Whaley	24	81	24
1.20	Darron Lee	OLB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	19	40	36
1.21	Will Fuller	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	24	53	52
1.22	Josh Doctson	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	9	33	26
1.23	Laquon Treadwell	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	8	53	16
1.24	William Jackson III	CB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	19	59	48
1.25	Artie Burns	CB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	17	58	32
1.26	Paxton Lynch	QB	DEN	John Elway	2	5	4
1.27	Kenny Clark	DT	GB	Ted Thompson	63	140	126	3
1.28	Joshua Garnett	G	SF	Trent Baalke	5	22	11
1.29	Robert Nkemdiche	DT	ARI	Steve Keim	6	27	6
1.30	Vernon Butler	DT	CAR	Dave Gettleman	13	52	9
1.31	Germain Ifedi	G	SEA	John Schneider	38	60	60
2.32	Emmanuel Ogbah	DE	CLE	Sashi Brown	43	40	40
2.33	Kevin Dodd	DE	TEN	Jon Robinson	2	18	1
2.34	Jaylon Smith	OLB	DAL	Jerry Jones	37	68	56	1
2.35	Hunter Henry	TE	LAC	Tom Telesco	37	55	49
2.36	Myles Jack	OLB	JAX	David Caldwell	42	88	82
2.37	Chris Jones	DT	KC	John Dorsey	96	155	134	7	3
2.38	Xavien Howard	CB	MIA	Chris Grier	58	100	99	4	1
2.39	Noah Spence	DE	TB	Jason Licht	5	34	6
2.40	Sterling Shepard	WR	NYG	Jerry Reese	32	90	74
2.41	Reggie Ragland	ILB	BUF	Doug Whaley	22	0	0
2.42	Kamalei Correa	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	11	25	4
2.43	Austin Johnson	NT	TEN	Jon Robinson	29	58	13
2.44	Jihad Ward	DE	LV	Reggie McKenzie	25	21	14
2.45	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	Jon Robinson	85	119	88	4	1
2.46	A'Shawn Robinson	DT	DET	Bob Quinn	40	58	37
2.47	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	Mickey Loomis	60	83	72	3	2
2.48	Jason Spriggs	T	GB	Ted Thompson	9	36	9
2.49	Jarran Reed	DT	SEA	John Schneider	48	118	90
2.50	Nick Martin	G	HOU	Rick Smith	29	62	62
2.51	Christian Hackenberg	QB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	0	0	0
2.52	Deion Jones	OLB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	43	85	83	1
2.53	Su'a Cravens	OLB	WAS	Bruce Allen	5	11	3
2.54	Mackensie Alexander	CB	MIN	Rick Spielman	12	71	15
2.55	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	48	120	77
2.56	Cody Whitehair	G	CHI	Ryan Pace	43	124	118	1
2.57	T.J. Green	S	IND	Ryan Grigson	6	31	11
2.58	Sean Davis	CB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	18	64	42
2.59	Roberto Aguayo	K	TB	Jason Licht	0	16	0
2.60	Cyrus Jones	CB	NE	Bill Belichick	4	12	1
2.61	Vonn Bell	S	NO	Mickey Loomis	37	61	45
2.62	James Bradberry	CB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	46	60	60
2.63	Adam Gotsis	DT	DEN	John Elway	28	57	28
3.64	Kevin Byard	S	TEN	Jon Robinson	66	120	111	2	2
3.65	Carl Nassib	DE	CLE	Sashi Brown	20	30	15
3.66	Max Tuerk	C	LAC	Tom Telesco	0	0	0
3.67	Maliek Collins	DT	DAL	Jerry Jones	51	61	55
3.68	Will Redmond	CB	SF	Trent Baalke	3	0	0
3.69	Yannick Ngakoue	DE	JAX	David Caldwell	50	63	62	1
3.70	Bronson Kaufusi	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	2	3	1
3.71	Darian Thompson	S	NYG	Jerry Reese	12	18	17
3.72	Jonathan Bullard	DT	CHI	Ryan Pace	28	46	5
3.73	Kenyan Drake	RB	MIA	Chris Grier	33	54	16
3.74	KeiVarae Russell	CB	KC	John Dorsey	2	0	0
3.75	Shilique Calhoun	DE	LV	Reggie McKenzie	5	26	0
3.76	Shon Coleman	T	CLE	Sashi Brown	6	23	16
3.77	Daryl Worley	CB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	22	31	25
3.78	Joe Thuney	G	NE	Bill Belichick	84	80	80
3.79	Isaac Seumalo	G	PHI	Howie Roseman	39	81	60
3.80	Adolphus Washington	DT	BUF	Doug Whaley	9	31	21
3.81	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	33	59	28	2
3.82	Le'Raven Clark	T	IND	Ryan Grigson	12	47	15
3.83	Jordan Jenkins	OLB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	29	72	62
3.84	Kendall Fuller	CB	WAS	Bruce Allen	34	91	74
3.85	Braxton Miller	WR	HOU	Rick Smith	2	21	9
3.86	Leonte Carroo	WR	MIA	Chris Grier	2	37	2
3.87	Nick Vigil	ILB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	27	54	37
3.88	Kyler Fackrell	OLB	GB	Ted Thompson	16	61	9
3.89	Javon Hargrave	DT	PIT	Kevin Colbert	59	63	52
3.90	C.J. Prosise	RB	SEA	John Schneider	5	25	2
3.91	Jacoby Brissett	QB	NE	Bill Belichick	42	11	7
3.92	Brandon Williams	CB	ARI	Steve Keim	4	45	3
3.93	Cody Kessler	QB	CLE	Sashi Brown	5	12	8
3.94	Nick Vannett	TE	SEA	John Schneider	7	42	16
3.95	Graham Glasgow	C	DET	Bob Quinn	48	110	103
3.96	Vincent Valentine	DT	NE	Bill Belichick	2	13	2
3.97	Rees Odhiambo	G	SEA	John Schneider	4	15	7
3.98	Justin Simmons	S	DEN	John Elway	60	118	108	2
4.99	Joe Schobert	OLB	CLE	Sashi Brown	37	61	49	1
4.100	Connor Cook	QB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	1	0
4.101	Charles Tapper	DE	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	2	0
4.102	Joshua Perry	ILB	LAC	Tom Telesco	1	15	1
4.103	Sheldon Day	DT	JAX	David Caldwell	9	22	0
4.104	Tavon Young	CB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	14	50	24
4.105	Parker Ehinger	G	KC	John Dorsey	4	6	5
4.106	Eric Murray	CB	KC	John Dorsey	25	45	11
4.107	Chris Moore	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	14	61	5
4.108	Ryan Smith	CB	TB	Jason Licht	8	74	16
4.109	B.J. Goodson	OLB	NYG	Jerry Reese	20	37	20
4.110	Tyler Higbee	TE	LAR	Les Snead	31	138	127
4.111	Miles Killebrew	S	DET	Bob Quinn	18	78	4
4.112	Malcolm Mitchell	WR	NE	Bill Belichick	4	14	6
4.113	Nick Kwiatkoski	ILB	CHI	Ryan Pace	20	57	22
4.114	Ricardo Louis	WR	CLE	Sashi Brown	3	32	12
4.115	De'Vondre Campbell	OLB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	51	59	54
4.116	Hassan Ridgeway	DT	IND	Ryan Grigson	13	34	6
4.117	Pharoh Cooper	WR	LAR	Les Snead	6	31	4	1	1
4.118	Juston Burris	CB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	14	34	2
4.119	Tyler Ervin	RB	HOU	Rick Smith	2	25	0
4.120	David Onyemata	DT	NO	Mickey Loomis	48	106	68
4.121	Willie Beavers	T	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	2	0
4.122	Andrew Billings	NT	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	33	47	37
4.123	Jerald Hawkins	T	PIT	Kevin Colbert	2	18	1
4.124	Deon Bush	S	CHI	Ryan Pace	8	79	12
4.125	Antonio Morrison	ILB	IND	Ryan Grigson	13	31	19
4.126	Demarcus Robinson	WR	KC	John Dorsey	27	97	42
4.127	Deiondre' Hall	CB	CHI	Ryan Pace	2	10	0
4.128	Evan Boehm	C	ARI	Steve Keim	12	31	9
4.129	Derrick Kindred	S	CLE	Sashi Brown	8	42	17
4.130	Alex Lewis	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	14	20	18
4.131	Blake Martinez	LB	GB	Ted Thompson	38	61	57
4.132	Willie Henry	DT	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	4	17	3
4.133	Rashard Robinson	CB	SF	Trent Baalke	9	22	13
4.134	Kenneth Dixon	RB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	5	18	0
4.135	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	Jerry Jones	104	139	139	4
4.136	Devontae Booker	RB	DEN	John Elway	19	61	6
4.137	Dean Lowry	DE	GB	Ted Thompson	38	111	80
4.138	Seth Devalve	TE	CLE	Sashi Brown	6	41	10
4.139	Cardale Jones	QB	BUF	Doug Whaley	0	1	0
5.140	Tajae Sharpe	WR	TEN	Jon Robinson	12	47	29
5.141	Zack Sanchez	CB	CAR	Dave Gettleman	1	5	1
5.142	Ronald Blair	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	7	47	2
5.143	DeAndre Washington	RB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	12	55	5
5.144	Connor McGovern	G	DEN	John Elway	29	47	36
5.145	John Theus	T	SF	Trent Baalke	1	4	1
5.146	Matt Judon	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	63	76	49
5.147	Quinton Jefferson	DT	SEA	John Schneider	29	56	27
5.148	Caleb Benenoch	T	TB	Jason Licht	12	35	22
5.149	Paul Perkins	RB	NYG	Jerry Reese	5	25	5
5.150	Jordan Howard	RB	CHI	Ryan Pace	27	47	44	1
5.151	Joe Dahl	G	DET	Bob Quinn	11	44	21
5.152	Matthew Ioannidis	DT	WAS	Bruce Allen	25	73	40
5.153	Wendell Smallwood	RB	PHI	Howie Roseman	10	37	12
5.154	Jordan Payton	WR	CLE	Sashi Brown	0	4	0
5.155	Joe Haeg	T	IND	Ryan Grigson	22	55	35
5.156	Jonathan Williams	RB	BUF	Doug Whaley	5	11	0
5.157	LeShaun Sims	CB	TEN	Jon Robinson	11	56	11
5.158	Brandon Shell	T	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	29	49	40
5.159	K.J. Dillon	S	HOU	Rick Smith	0	5	0
5.160	Kentrell Brothers	OLB	MIN	Rick Spielman	4	51	1
5.161	Christian Westerman	G	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	2	16	2
5.162	Kevin Hogan	QB	KC	John Dorsey	2	0	0
5.163	Trevor Davis	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	2	31	0
5.164	Halapoulivaati Vaitai	T	PHI	Howie Roseman	25	55	20
5.165	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	John Dorsey	98	91	73	6	3
5.166	D.J. Reader	NT	HOU	Rick Smith	47	61	52
5.167	Marqui Christian	S	ARI	Steve Keim	6	0	0
5.168	Spencer Drango	G	CLE	Sashi Brown	8	32	19
5.169	Antwione Williams	LB	DET	Bob Quinn	2	14	3
5.170	Cole Toner	T	ARI	Steve Keim	2	2	0
5.171	Alex Collins	RB	SEA	John Schneider	17	25	7
5.172	Rashard Higgins	WR	CLE	Sashi Brown	13	82	16
5.173	Trey Caldwell	DB	CLE	Sashi Brown	0	1	0
5.174	Fahn Cooper	T	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
5.175	Jatavis Brown	OLB	LAC	Tom Telesco	14	56	23
6.176	Andy Janovich	FB	DEN	John Elway	2	50	19
6.177	Temarrick Hemingway	TE	LAR	Les Snead	0	8	0
6.178	D.J. White	CB	KC	John Dorsey	1	11	0
6.179	Drew Kaser	P	LAC	Tom Telesco	5	36	0
6.180	Moritz Boehringer	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
6.181	Tyrone Holmes	OLB	JAX	David Caldwell	1	0	0
6.182	Keenan Reynolds	RB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
6.183	Devante Bond	OLB	TB	Jason Licht	4	29	6
6.184	Jerell Adams	TE	NYG	Jerry Reese	2	29	3
6.185	DeAndre Houston-Carson	S	CHI	Ryan Pace	11	94	9
6.186	Jakeem Grant	WR	MIA	Chris Grier	14	70	8
6.187	Nate Sudfeld	QB	WAS	Bruce Allen	1	0	0
6.188	David Morgan	TE	MIN	Rick Spielman	1	38	12
6.189	Anthony Brown	CB	DAL	Jerry Jones	23	94	69
6.190	Josh Forrest	ILB	LAR	Les Snead	2	10	4
6.191	Jake Rudock	QB	DET	Bob Quinn	0	3	0
6.192	Kolby Listenbee	WR	BUF	Doug Whaley	0	0	0
6.193	Sebastian Tretola	G	TEN	Jon Robinson	0	1	0
6.194	Cory James	OLB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	7	26	14
6.195	Wes Schweitzer	G	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	27	46	36
6.196	Blake Countess	CB	PHI	Howie Roseman	3	2	0
6.197	Danny Vitale	FB	TB	Jason Licht	1	0	0
6.198	Derek Watt	FB	LAC	Tom Telesco	1	64	13
6.199	Cody Core	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	3	35	7
6.200	Kyle Murphy	T	GB	Ted Thompson	2	6	3
6.201	Brandon Allen	QB	JAX	David Caldwell	5	0	0
6.202	Anthony Zettel	DT	DET	Bob Quinn	9	29	16
6.203	Dadi Nicolas	DE	KC	John Dorsey	1	11	0
6.204	Jordan Lucas	S	MIA	Chris Grier	4	19	0
6.205	Harlan Miller	CB	ARI	Steve Keim	2	7	2
6.206	Mike Thomas	WR	LAR	Les Snead	2	40	1
6.207	Jeff Driskel	QB	SF	Trent Baalke	7	0	0
6.208	Kamu Grugier-Hill	OLB	NE	Bill Belichick	24	0	0
6.209	Maurice Canady	CB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	3	24	2
6.210	Jimmy Landes	LS	DET	Bob Quinn	0	0	0
6.211	Kelvin Taylor	RB	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
6.212	Kavon Frazier	S	DAL	Jerry Jones	4	44	2
6.213	Aaron Burbridge	WR	SF	Trent Baalke	1	16	3
6.214	Elandon Roberts	ILB	NE	Bill Belichick	52	60	33
6.215	Joey Hunt	C	SEA	John Schneider	7	34	11
6.216	Darius Jackson	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	2	0
6.217	Rico Gathers	TE	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	15	4
6.218	Kevon Seymour	CB	BUF	Doug Whaley	6	15	3
6.219	Will Parks	S	DEN	John Elway	11	66	15
6.220	Travis Feeney	OLB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
6.221	Ted Karras	G	NE	Bill Belichick	48	77	33
7.222	Aaron Wallace	OLB	TEN	Jon Robinson	1	13	0
7.223	Brandon Doughty	QB	MIA	Chris Grier	0	0	0
7.224	Donavon Clark	G	LAC	Tom Telesco	0	0	0
7.225	Devin Lucien	WR	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
7.226	Jonathan Woodard	DE	JAX	David Caldwell	1	0	0
7.227	Stephen Weatherly	OLB	MIN	Rick Spielman	12	55	7
7.228	Riley Dixon	P	DEN	John Elway	18	66	0
7.229	Demarcus Ayers	WR	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	2	1
7.230	Daniel Braverman	WR	CHI	Ryan Pace	0	3	0
7.231	Thomas Duarte	TE	MIA	Chris Grier	0	1	0
7.232	Steven Daniels	ILB	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
7.233	Jalen Mills	S	PHI	Howie Roseman	31	63	49
7.234	Vadal Alexander	G	LV	Reggie McKenzie	6	24	9
7.235	Lac Edwards	P	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	10	64	0
7.236	Dwayne Washington	RB	DET	Bob Quinn	4	17	2
7.237	Daniel Lasco	RB	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	10	0
7.238	Devin Fuller	WR	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	0	0	0
7.239	Trevor Bates	LB	IND	Ryan Grigson	1	1	0
7.240	Alex McCalister	DE	PHI	Howie Roseman	0	0	0
7.241	Charone Peake	WR	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	1	31	1
7.242	Keith Marshall	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	0	0
7.243	Kenny Lawler	WR	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
7.244	Jayron Kearse	S	MIN	Rick Spielman	18	62	5
7.245	Clayton Fejedelem	S	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	8	64	6
7.246	Tyler Matakevich	OLB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	9	74	1
7.247	Zac Brooks	RB	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
7.248	Austin Blythe	C	IND	Ryan Grigson	33	8	1
7.249	Prince Charles Iworah	CB	SF	Trent Baalke	0	1	0
7.250	Scooby Wright III	ILB	CLE	Sashi Brown	1	0	0
7.251	Joe Walker	ILB	PHI	Howie Roseman	8	12	3
7.252	Beau Sandland	TE	CAR	Dave Gettleman	0	0	0
7.253	Kalan Reed	CB	TEN	Jon Robinson	0	7	0

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.