2025
θ -0.01
AVERAGE
Hired Jan 2025 from Eagles
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3-14 | Missed | -0.08 |
New York Jets
Composite skill θ for every GM in New York Jets history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
12
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.41
Mike Tannenbaum
Worst θ
-0.62
Steve Gutman / Pat Kirwan
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Darren Mougey2025–2025θ -0.01
Joe Douglas2020–2024θ -0.09
Mike Maccagnan2015–2019θ -0.52
John Idzik2013–2014θ -0.56
Mike Tannenbaum2006–2012θ +0.41
Terry Bradway2001–2005θ -0.53
Dick Haley2000–2000θ +0.06
Bill Parcells1997–1999θ +0.04
Steve Gutman / Pat Kirwan1995–1996θ -0.62
Dick Steinberg1994–1994θ -0.59
Dick Steinberg1989–1993θ -0.59
Jim Kensil1980–1988θ -0.47
General managers (12) · newest first
2020–2024
θ -0.09
AVERAGE
Hired June 2019 — Maccagnan ran the 2019 draft
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2-14 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2021 | 4-13 | Missed | -0.14 |
| 2022 | 7-10 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2023 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.15 |
| 2024 | 5-12 | Missed | +0.02 |
2015–2019
θ -0.52 *
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 10-6 | Missed | +0.02 |
| 2016 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.02 |
| 2017 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.04 |
| 2018 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.05 |
| 2019 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.03 |
2013–2014
θ -0.56
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 8-8 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2014 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.02 |
2006–2012
θ +0.41 *
ELITE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 10-6 | Lost WC | -0.02 |
| 2007 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2008 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.35 |
| 2009 | 9-7 | Lost Conf | +0.60 |
| 2010 | 11-5 | Lost Conf | +0.76 |
| 2011 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.85 |
| 2012 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.67 |
2001–2005
θ -0.53 *
TERRIBLE
GM
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 10-6 | Lost WC | -0.03 |
| 2002 | 9-7 | Lost Divisional | -0.04 |
| 2003 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.03 |
| 2004 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.04 |
| 2005 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.14 |
2000
θ +0.06
GOOD
Director Player Personnel; Parcells stepped down Jan 2000
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 9-7 | Missed | -0.11 |
1997–1999
θ +0.04
AVERAGE
HC with final say
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 9-7 | — | +0.26 |
| 1998 | 12-4 | — | +0.46 |
| 1999 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.55 |
1995–1996
θ -0.62
TERRIBLE
Pre-Parcells transitional front office
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 3-13 | — | -0.05 |
| 1996 | 1-15 | — | -0.09 |
1994
θ -0.59 *
TERRIBLE
GM 1990-94; died July 1995
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 6-10 | — | -0.24 |
1989–1993
θ -0.59 *
TERRIBLE
Named VP + GM Dec 1989; served through 1995
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 4-12 | — | -0.06 |
| 1990 | 6-10 | — | -0.09 |
| 1991 | 8-8 | — | -0.02 |
| 1992 | 4-12 | — | -0.08 |
| 1993 | 8-8 | — | -0.18 |
1980–1988
θ -0.47 *
TERRIBLE
President + GM through 1988
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 4-12 | — | — |
| 1981 | 10-5-1 | — | -0.23 |
| 1982 | 6-3 | — | -0.12 |
| 1983 | 7-9 | — | -0.27 |
| 1984 | 7-9 | — | -0.36 |
| 1985 | 11-5 | — | -0.22 |
| 1986 | 10-6 | — | -0.15 |
| 1987 | 6-9 | — | -0.19 |
| 1988 | 8-7-1 | — | -0.18 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.