2022–2025
θ +0.01
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-14 | Missed | +0.07 |
| 2023 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.06 |
| 2024 | 5-12 | Missed | -0.00 |
| 2025 | 11-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.05 |
Chicago Bears
Composite skill θ for every GM in Chicago Bears history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
9
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.69
Mark Hatley
Worst θ
-0.61
Rod Graves
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Ryan Poles2022–2025θ +0.01
Ryan Pace2015–2021θ -0.24
Phil Emery2012–2014θ -0.09
Jerry Angelo2001–2011θ +0.38
Mark Hatley1997–2000θ +0.69
Rod Graves1994–1996θ -0.61
Bill Tobin1987–1993θ -0.19
Jerry Vainisi1983–1986θ +0.37
Jim Finks1980–1982θ +0.29
General managers (9) · newest first
2015–2021
θ -0.24
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.06 |
| 2016 | 3-13 | Missed | +0.17 |
| 2017 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.14 |
| 2018 | 12-4 | Lost WC | +0.56 |
| 2019 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.47 |
| 2020 | 8-8 | Lost WC | +0.36 |
| 2021 | 6-11 | Missed | +0.23 |
2012–2014
θ -0.09
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 10-6 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2013 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.13 |
| 2014 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.01 |
2001–2011
θ +0.38 *
ELITE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 13-3 | Lost Divisional | -0.08 |
| 2002 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.03 |
| 2003 | 7-9 | Missed | -0.06 |
| 2004 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.05 |
| 2005 | 11-5 | Lost Divisional | +0.23 |
| 2006 | 13-3 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.38 |
| 2007 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.40 |
| 2008 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.37 |
| 2009 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.32 |
| 2010 | 11-5 | Lost Conf | +0.31 |
| 2011 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.27 |
1997–2000
θ +0.69 *
ELITE
VP Player Personnel
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 4-12 | — | +0.01 |
| 1998 | 4-12 | — | -0.02 |
| 1999 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.03 |
| 2000 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.01 |
1994–1996
θ -0.61
TERRIBLE
Director of Pro Personnel; Wannstedt era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 9-7 | — | -0.03 |
| 1995 | 9-7 | — | -0.05 |
| 1996 | 7-9 | — | -0.01 |
1987–1993
θ -0.19
BAD
Director Pro Personnel then de facto GM; pre-IND tenure
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | 11-4 | — | -0.03 |
| 1988 | 12-4 | — | -0.07 |
| 1989 | 6-10 | — | -0.16 |
| 1990 | 11-5 | — | -0.12 |
| 1991 | 11-5 | — | -0.06 |
| 1992 | 5-11 | — | -0.10 |
| 1993 | 7-9 | — | -0.08 |
1983–1986
θ +0.37 *
ELITE
GM 1983-1986; Super Bowl XX era; fired Jan 1987
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 8-8 | — | -0.08 |
| 1984 | 10-6 | — | -0.14 |
| 1985 | 15-1 | — | +0.16 |
| 1986 | 14-2 | — | +0.37 |
1980–1982
θ +0.29
GOOD
Executive VP; resigned over Ditka hire; remained through 1983 draft
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 7-9 | — | — |
| 1981 | 6-10 | — | +0.02 |
| 1982 | 3-6 | — | +0.06 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.