2025
θ -0.00
AVERAGE
Hired Jan 2025 from Rams
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-4 | Lost WC | +0.00 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
Composite skill θ for every GM in Jacksonville Jaguars history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1995–2025
first → last draft
GMs
6
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.18
Tom Coughlin
Worst θ
-0.81
Gene Smith
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
James Gladstone2025–2025θ -0.00
Trent Baalke2021–2024θ -0.14
David Caldwell2013–2020θ -0.65
Gene Smith2009–2012θ -0.81
James Harris2003–2008θ -0.29
Tom Coughlin1995–2002θ +0.18
General managers (6) · newest first
2021–2024
θ -0.14
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-14 | Missed | -0.49 |
| 2022 | 9-8 | Lost Divisional | -0.41 |
| 2023 | 9-8 | Missed | -0.26 |
| 2024 | 4-13 | Missed | -0.25 |
2013–2020
θ -0.65 *
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.01 |
| 2014 | 3-13 | Missed | -0.09 |
| 2015 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.00 |
| 2016 | 3-13 | Missed | -0.15 |
| 2017 | 10-6 | Lost Conf | +0.16 |
| 2018 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.05 |
| 2019 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.00 |
| 2020 | 1-15 | Missed | -0.14 |
2009–2012
θ -0.81 **
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.04 |
| 2010 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.08 |
| 2011 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.05 |
| 2012 | 2-14 | Missed | -0.02 |
2003–2008
θ -0.29 *
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.01 |
| 2004 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.02 |
| 2005 | 12-4 | Lost WC | +0.06 |
| 2006 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.29 |
| 2007 | 11-5 | Lost Divisional | +0.26 |
| 2008 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.19 |
1995–2002
θ +0.18
GOOD
HC + EVP Football Ops; de facto GM with Michael Huyghue as SVP
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 4-12 | — | -0.06 |
| 1996 | 9-7 | — | -0.08 |
| 1997 | 11-5 | — | +0.15 |
| 1998 | 11-5 | — | +0.30 |
| 1999 | 14-2 | Lost Conf | +0.57 |
| 2000 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.53 |
| 2001 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.34 |
| 2002 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.20 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.