2025
θ +0.02
AVERAGE
Hired Jan 2025 from KC
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3-14 | Missed | +0.17 |
Tennessee Titans
Composite skill θ for every GM in Tennessee Titans history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
9
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.80
Ladd Herzeg
Worst θ
-0.21
Mike Holovak
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Mike Borgonzi2025–2025θ +0.02
Ran Carthon2023–2024θ -0.02
Jon Robinson2016–2022θ -0.00
Ruston Webster2011–2015θ -0.14
Mike Reinfeldt2007–2010θ +0.10
Floyd Reese1994–2006θ +0.76
Mike Holovak1990–1993θ -0.21
Ladd Herzeg1981–1989θ +0.80
Bum Phillips1980–1980θ -0.15
General managers (9) · newest first
2023–2024
θ -0.02
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 6-11 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2024 | 3-14 | Missed | +0.02 |
2016–2022
θ -0.00
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.21 |
| 2017 | 9-7 | Lost Divisional | +0.31 |
| 2018 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.25 |
| 2019 | 9-7 | Lost Conf | +0.36 |
| 2020 | 11-5 | Lost WC | +0.41 |
| 2021 | 12-5 | Lost Divisional | +0.52 |
| 2022 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.43 |
2011–2015
θ -0.14
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.04 |
| 2012 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.06 |
| 2013 | 7-9 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2014 | 2-14 | Missed | -0.19 |
| 2015 | 3-13 | Missed | -0.21 |
2007–2010
θ +0.10
GOOD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 10-6 | Lost WC | -0.01 |
| 2008 | 13-3 | Lost Divisional | +0.15 |
| 2009 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.35 |
| 2010 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.50 |
1994–2006
θ +0.76 **
ELITE
Ran Oilers/Titans; long tenure
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 2-14 | — | -0.00 |
| 1995 | 7-9 | — | +0.01 |
| 1996 | 8-8 | — | +0.05 |
| 1997 | 8-8 | — | +0.13 |
| 1998 | 8-8 | — | +0.18 |
| 1999 | 13-3 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.44 |
| 2000 | 13-3 | Lost Divisional | +0.86 |
| 2001 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.72 |
| 2002 | 11-5 | Lost Conf | +0.65 |
| 2003 | 12-4 | Lost Divisional | +0.72 |
| 2004 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.66 |
| 2005 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.65 |
| 2006 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.60 |
1990–1993
θ -0.21
BAD
Director Player Personnel (Houston Oilers); Glanville/Pardee HC era; pre-relocation
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 9-7 | — | -0.09 |
| 1991 | 11-5 | — | -0.13 |
| 1992 | 10-6 | — | -0.12 |
| 1993 | 12-4 | — | -0.01 |
1981–1989
θ +0.80 **
ELITE
GM through Earl Campbell trade and Glanville era; widely credited as Oilers GM
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | 7-9 | — | -0.01 |
| 1982 | 1-8 | — | -0.10 |
| 1983 | 2-14 | — | -0.11 |
| 1984 | 3-13 | — | -0.18 |
| 1985 | 5-11 | — | -0.19 |
| 1986 | 5-11 | — | -0.20 |
| 1987 | 9-6 | — | -0.14 |
| 1988 | 10-6 | — | +0.08 |
| 1989 | 9-7 | — | +0.06 |
1980
θ -0.15
BAD
HC + de facto GM; final season as HC 1980
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 11-5 | — | — |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.