Terrible-1.55 contribution38th of 43 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
A'Shawn Robinson became a 10-season, 143-game NFL player after going #46. The retained-value model still ranks him 38th of 43 for Bob Quinn because DET only got 58 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.55. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bob Quinn's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
58
on drafting team · 143 full-career
Games started
37
on drafting team · 106 full-career
Snap-z
2.9
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
20
modeled; full weighted AV 40
AV / 1k snaps
8.6
2,321 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Bob Quinn's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Bob Quinn pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. A'Shawn Robinson totals -1.55. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationA'Shawn RobinsonGM total -17.8A'Shawn Robinson by season -3.6
How much retained production did A'Shawn Robinson return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of A'Shawn Robinson since 2010 (14 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
A'Shawn RobinsonSlot-similar peers (14)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
DET
16
3
445
0.1
3
6.7
2017
DET
16
16
819
1.6
7
8.5
2018
DET
13
7
492
0.4
5
10.2
2019
DET
13
10
565
0.8
5
8.8
2020
LAR
8
0
143
-1.0
1
7.0
2021
LAR
17
7
606
0.8
6
9.9
2022
LAR
10
8
411
0.1
4
9.7
2023
NYG
17
8
600
0.8
6
10.0
2024
CAR
16
14
841
1.7
5
5.9
2025
CAR
17
14
724
1.2
7
9.7
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
