2024–2025
θ +0.02
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12-5 | Lost Conf | +0.29 |
| 2025 | 5-12 | Missed | +0.11 |
Washington Commanders
Composite skill θ for every GM in Washington Commanders history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
6
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.35
Vinny Cerrato
Worst θ
-0.31
Bruce Allen
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Adam Peters2024–2025θ +0.02
Ron Rivera2020–2023θ -0.13
Bruce Allen2010–2019θ -0.31
Vinny Cerrato2000–2009θ +0.35
Charley Casserly1990–1999θ -0.26
Bobby Beathard1980–1989θ -0.01
General managers (6) · newest first
2020–2023
θ -0.13
BAD
Coach with final say
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 7-9 | Lost WC | +0.32 |
| 2021 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.23 |
| 2022 | 8-8-1 | Missed | +0.15 |
| 2023 | 4-13 | Missed | +0.13 |
2010–2019
θ -0.31 *
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.03 |
| 2011 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.03 |
| 2012 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.29 |
| 2013 | 3-13 | Missed | +0.04 |
| 2014 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.07 |
| 2015 | 9-7 | Lost WC | +0.03 |
| 2016 | 8-7-1 | Missed | +0.24 |
| 2017 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.23 |
| 2018 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.06 |
| 2019 | 3-13 | Missed | -0.05 |
2000–2009
θ +0.35 *
ELITE
EVP football ops; hired Jan 2000 after Snyder bought team
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 8-8 | Missed | -0.11 |
| 2001 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.08 |
| 2002 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.25 |
| 2003 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.26 |
| 2004 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.08 |
| 2005 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.02 |
| 2006 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.01 |
| 2007 | 9-7 | Lost WC | +0.12 |
| 2008 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.17 |
| 2009 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.15 |
1990–1999
θ -0.26
BAD
GM 1989-1999; resigned May 1999
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 10-6 | — | -0.05 |
| 1991 | 14-2 | — | -0.02 |
| 1992 | 9-7 | — | -0.05 |
| 1993 | 4-12 | — | -0.07 |
| 1994 | 3-13 | — | -0.06 |
| 1995 | 6-10 | — | +0.04 |
| 1996 | 9-7 | — | +0.05 |
| 1997 | 8-7-1 | — | +0.04 |
| 1998 | 6-10 | — | +0.03 |
| 1999 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.03 |
1980–1989
θ -0.01
AVERAGE
HOF GM; led Redskins to 3 Super Bowls
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 6-10 | — | — |
| 1981 | 8-8 | — | +0.17 |
| 1982 | 8-1 | — | +0.27 |
| 1983 | 14-2 | — | +0.31 |
| 1984 | 11-5 | — | +0.53 |
| 1985 | 10-6 | — | +0.59 |
| 1986 | 12-4 | — | +0.62 |
| 1987 | 11-4 | — | +0.64 |
| 1988 | 7-9 | — | +0.57 |
| 1989 | 10-6 | — | +0.52 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.