Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Austin Blythe became a 7-season, 92-game NFL player after going #248. The retained-value model still ranks him 33rd of 38 for Ryan Grigson because IND only got 8 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.79. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ryan Grigson's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
8
on drafting team · 92 full-career
Games started
1
on drafting team · 66 full-career
Snap-z
-1.0
1 modeled season
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
1
modeled; full weighted AV 33
AV / 1k snaps
7.2
139 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ryan Grigson's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ryan Grigson pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Austin Blythe totals -0.79. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAustin BlytheGM total +2.4Austin Blythe by season -1.4
How much retained production did Austin Blythe return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Cs drafted within ±5 picks of Austin Blythe since 2010 (4 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Austin BlytheSlot-similar peers (4)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (7 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
IND
8
1
139
-1.0
1
7.2
2017
LAR
16
2
291
-0.8
2
6.9
2018
LAR
16
16
1,195
1.7
11
9.2
2019
LAR
15
14
1,066
1.1
8
7.5
2020
LAR
16
16
1,191
1.5
6
5.0
2021
KC
4
0
18
-1.3
0
0.0
2022
SEA
17
16
1,044
1.1
8
7.7
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
