Terrible-2.22 contribution24th of 24 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Emmanuel Ogbah became a 10-season, 136-game NFL player after going #32. The retained-value model still ranks him 24th of 24 for Sashi Brown because CLE only got 40 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.22. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Sashi Brown's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
40
on drafting team · 136 full-career
Games started
40
on drafting team · 90 full-career
Snap-z
3.8
3 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
17
modeled; full weighted AV 43
AV / 1k snaps
6.9
2,455 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Sashi Brown's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Sashi Brown pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Emmanuel Ogbah totals -2.22. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationEmmanuel OgbahGM total -1.4Emmanuel Ogbah by season -5.1
How much retained production did Emmanuel Ogbah return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Emmanuel Ogbah since 2010 (16 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Emmanuel OgbahSlot-similar peers (16)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
CLE
16
16
989
1.6
6
6.1
2017
CLE
10
9
537
0.4
4
7.4
2018
CLE
14
13
929
1.7
7
7.5
2019
KC
10
5
437
0.1
3
6.9
2020
MIA
16
16
884
1.8
8
9.0
2021
MIA
17
17
831
1.7
7
8.4
2022
MIA
9
7
370
-0.0
2
5.4
2023
MIA
15
1
349
-0.2
2
5.7
2024
MIA
16
16
826
1.6
9
10.9
2025
JAX
13
4
326
-0.1
3
9.2
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
