Excellent+0.95 contribution3rd of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Lac Edwards was Mike Maccagnan's 3rd-best of 34 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.95. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mike Maccagnan's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
64
on drafting team · 74 full-career
Games started
0
on drafting team
Snap-z
-1.9
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
10
modeled; full weighted AV 10
AV / 1k snaps
16.8
596 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mike Maccagnan's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mike Maccagnan pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Lac Edwards totals +0.95. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationLac EdwardsGM total -19.4Lac Edwards by season +2.4
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (6 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
NYJ
16
0
135
—
1
7.4
2017
NYJ
16
0
158
—
3
19.0
2018
NYJ
16
0
153
—
3
19.6
2019
NYJ
16
0
150
0.3
3
20.0
2020
NYJ
0
0
0
-2.2
0
—
2021
CAR
10
0
70
-0.6
1
14.3
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
