Terrible-2.18 contribution27th of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Terrible pick
Shaq Lawson was Doug Whaley's 27th-best of 34 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.18. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Doug Whaley's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
81
on drafting team · 110 full-career
Games started
24
on drafting team · 38 full-career
Snap-z
0.4
6 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
18
modeled; full weighted AV 24
AV / 1k snaps
7.1
2,550 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Doug Whaley's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Doug Whaley pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Shaq Lawson totals -2.18. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationShaq LawsonGM total -16.2Shaq Lawson by season -5.0
How much retained production did Shaq Lawson return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Shaq Lawson since 2010 (22 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Shaq LawsonSlot-similar peers (22)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
BUF
10
2
238
-0.6
1
4.2
2017
BUF
11
9
475
0.2
4
8.4
2018
BUF
14
7
454
0.2
4
8.8
2019
BUF
15
8
512
0.4
3
5.9
2020
MIA
14
11
651
1.0
6
9.2
2021
NYJ
14
9
582
0.5
3
5.2
2022
BUF
15
7
495
0.4
4
8.1
2023
BUF
16
2
376
-0.1
2
5.3
2024
CAR
1
0
14
-1.3
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
