2021–2025
θ +0.28
GOOD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-13 | Missed | +0.10 |
| 2022 | 3-13-1 | Missed | +0.09 |
| 2023 | 10-7 | Lost Divisional | +0.22 |
| 2024 | 10-7 | Lost Divisional | +0.43 |
| 2025 | 12-5 | Lost Divisional | +0.85 |
Houston Texans
Composite skill θ for every GM in Houston Texans history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
2002–2025
first → last draft
GMs
5
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.28
Nick Caserio
Worst θ
-0.36
Bill O'Brien
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Nick Caserio2021–2025θ +0.28
Bill O'Brien2019–2020θ -0.36
Brian Gaine2018–2018θ -0.14
Rick Smith2006–2017θ -0.34
Charley Casserly2002–2005θ -0.07
General managers (5) · newest first
2019–2020
θ -0.36
TERRIBLE
De facto GM as HC
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.03 |
| 2020 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.07 |
2018
θ -0.14
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 11-5 | Lost WC | +0.07 |
2006–2017
θ -0.34 *
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.04 |
| 2007 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.09 |
| 2008 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.28 |
| 2009 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.50 |
| 2010 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.41 |
| 2011 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.35 |
| 2012 | 12-4 | Lost Divisional | +0.35 |
| 2013 | 2-14 | Missed | -0.00 |
| 2014 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.01 |
| 2015 | 9-7 | Lost WC | -0.03 |
| 2016 | 9-7 | Lost Divisional | -0.11 |
| 2017 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.20 |
2002–2005
θ -0.07
AVERAGE
Original Texans GM
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2003 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.04 |
| 2004 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.05 |
| 2005 | 2-14 | Missed | +0.18 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.