Terrible-1.46 contribution24th of 34 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Kevon Seymour became a 9-season, 67-game NFL player after going #218. The retained-value model still ranks him 24th of 34 for Doug Whaley because BUF only got 15 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -1.46. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Doug Whaley's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
15
on drafting team · 67 full-career
Games started
3
on drafting team · 7 full-career
Snap-z
-0.0
1 modeled season
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
1
modeled; full weighted AV 6
AV / 1k snaps
2.1
474 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Doug Whaley's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Doug Whaley pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Kevon Seymour totals -1.46. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationKevon SeymourGM total -16.2Kevon Seymour by season -2.7
How much retained production did Kevon Seymour return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: CBs drafted within ±5 picks of Kevon Seymour since 2010 (12 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Kevon SeymourSlot-similar peers (12)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
BUF
15
7
474
-0.0
1
2.1
2017
CAR
16
8
507
0.0
2
3.9
2018
—
0
0
0
—
0
—
2019
—
0
0
0
—
0
—
2020
PHI
2
2
106
-1.0
0
0.0
2021
BAL
9
9
406
-0.1
1
2.5
2022
BAL
14
14
288
-0.5
1
3.5
2023
BAL
8
6
168
-0.8
1
6.0
2024
WAS
3
0
28
-1.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
