2023–2025
θ -0.10
BAD
Hired Jan 2023
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-13 | Missed | -0.04 |
| 2024 | 8-9 | Missed | -0.24 |
| 2025 | 3-14 | Missed | -0.36 |
Arizona Cardinals
Composite skill θ for every GM in Arizona Cardinals history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
6
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.08
Rod Graves
Worst θ
-0.86
Bill Bidwill
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Monti Ossenfort2023–2025θ -0.10
Steve Keim2013–2022θ -0.18
Rod Graves2003–2012θ +0.08
Bob Ferguson1996–2002θ -0.26
Larry Wilson1994–1995θ -0.26
Bill Bidwill1980–1993θ -0.86
General managers (6) · newest first
2013–2022
θ -0.18
BAD
GM 2013-2022; fired
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 10-6 | Missed | -0.07 |
| 2014 | 11-5 | Lost WC | +0.02 |
| 2015 | 13-3 | Lost Conf | +0.22 |
| 2016 | 7-8-1 | Missed | +0.30 |
| 2017 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.37 |
| 2018 | 3-13 | Missed | -0.00 |
| 2019 | 5-10-1 | Missed | -0.13 |
| 2020 | 8-8 | Missed | -0.07 |
| 2021 | 11-6 | Lost WC | +0.01 |
| 2022 | 4-13 | Missed | -0.09 |
2003–2012
θ +0.08
GOOD
VP Football Ops; promoted to GM 2003
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.05 |
| 2004 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.03 |
| 2005 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.12 |
| 2006 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.23 |
| 2007 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.30 |
| 2008 | 9-7 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.38 |
| 2009 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.47 |
| 2010 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.39 |
| 2011 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.33 |
| 2012 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.22 |
1996–2002
θ -0.26
BAD
Director of Player Personnel; pre-formal-GM era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 7-9 | — | -0.03 |
| 1997 | 4-12 | — | -0.00 |
| 1998 | 9-7 | — | +0.06 |
| 1999 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.13 |
| 2000 | 3-13 | Missed | +0.06 |
| 2001 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.18 |
| 2002 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.06 |
1994–1995
θ -0.26
BAD
VP Player Personnel; HOF safety
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 8-8 | — | -0.05 |
| 1995 | 4-12 | — | +0.00 |
1980–1993
θ -0.86 **
TERRIBLE
Owner ran Cardinals (St. Louis 80-87, Phoenix 88-93); diffuse leadership; defensible owner-as-GM attribution
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 5-11 | — | — |
| 1981 | 7-9 | — | -0.07 |
| 1982 | 5-4 | — | +0.05 |
| 1983 | 8-7-1 | — | -0.02 |
| 1984 | 9-7 | — | +0.03 |
| 1985 | 5-11 | — | -0.06 |
| 1986 | 4-11-1 | — | -0.18 |
| 1987 | 7-8 | — | -0.23 |
| 1988 | 7-9 | — | -0.26 |
| 1989 | 5-11 | — | -0.25 |
| 1990 | 5-11 | — | -0.34 |
| 1991 | 4-12 | — | -0.45 |
| 1992 | 4-12 | — | -0.54 |
| 1993 | 7-9 | — | -0.63 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.