Excellent+1.69 contribution3rd of 38 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Ryan Kelly was Ryan Grigson's 3rd-best of 38 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +1.69. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ryan Grigson's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
121
on drafting team · 129 full-career
Games started
121
on drafting team · 129 full-career
Snap-z
6.1
9 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
64
modeled; full weighted AV 56
AV / 1k snaps
8.3
7,704 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
4
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 1
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Ryan Grigson's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Ryan Grigson pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Ryan Kelly totals +1.69. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationRyan KellyGM total +2.4Ryan Kelly by season +4.1
How much retained production did Ryan Kelly return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Cs drafted within ±5 picks of Ryan Kelly since 2010 (5 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Ryan KellySlot-similar peers (5)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
IND
16
15
1,021
1.1
10
9.8
2017
IND
7
6
394
-0.5
3
7.6
2018
IND
12
11
777
0.4
6
7.7
2019
IND
16
15
1,018
1.0
10
9.8
✓
2020
IND
15
15
1,008
1.2
11
10.9
✓
·
2021
IND
14
14
908
0.8
8
8.8
✓
2022
IND
17
16
1,095
1.2
5
4.6
2023
IND
14
14
882
0.7
7
7.9
✓
2024
IND
10
10
601
0.2
4
6.7
2025
MIN
8
5
329
-0.5
3
9.1
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
