Terrible-2.23 contribution42nd of 43 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Miles Killebrew became a 10-season, 151-game NFL player after going #111. The retained-value model still ranks him 42nd of 43 for Bob Quinn because DET only got 78 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.23. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Bob Quinn's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
78
on drafting team · 151 full-career
Games started
4
on drafting team · 5 full-career
Snap-z
-1.4
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
6
modeled; full weighted AV 18
AV / 1k snaps
2.7
2,218 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
1 full-career · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Bob Quinn's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Bob Quinn pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Miles Killebrew totals -2.23. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMiles KillebrewGM total -17.8Miles Killebrew by season -5.2
How much retained production did Miles Killebrew return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: Ss drafted within ±5 picks of Miles Killebrew since 2010 (9 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Miles KillebrewSlot-similar peers (9)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2016
DET
16
16
453
-0.3
1
2.2
2017
DET
16
15
630
0.2
2
3.2
2018
DET
16
16
337
-0.5
1
3.0
2019
DET
15
15
436
-0.3
1
2.3
2020
DET
15
15
362
-0.6
1
2.8
2021
PIT
17
17
379
-0.4
2
5.3
2022
PIT
17
17
303
-0.7
1
3.3
2023
PIT
17
17
430
-0.2
8
18.6
2024
PIT
17
17
312
-0.5
3
9.6
2025
PIT
5
4
81
-1.1
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
