2021–2025
θ +0.40
ELITE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.17 |
| 2022 | 5-12 | Missed | +0.50 |
| 2023 | 8-9 | Missed | +0.50 |
| 2024 | 10-7 | Lost WC | +0.99 |
| 2025 | 14-3 | Lost Conf | +1.01 |
Denver Broncos
Composite skill θ for every GM in Denver Broncos history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
7
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.46
Edgar Kaiser/staff
Worst θ
-0.45
John Elway
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
George Paton2021–2025θ +0.40
John Elway2011–2020θ -0.45
Brian Xanders2009–2010θ +0.07
Mike Shanahan1995–2008θ +0.34
John Beake1994–1994θ +0.36
John Beake1985–1993θ +0.36
Edgar Kaiser/staff1980–1984θ +0.46
General managers (7) · newest first
2011–2020
θ -0.45 *
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 8-8 | Lost Divisional | +0.07 |
| 2012 | 13-3 | Lost Divisional | +0.27 |
| 2013 | 13-3 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.22 |
| 2014 | 12-4 | Lost Divisional | +0.17 |
| 2015 | 12-4 | WON SUPER BOWL | +0.25 |
| 2016 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.27 |
| 2017 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.14 |
| 2018 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.06 |
| 2019 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.01 |
| 2020 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.14 |
2009–2010
θ +0.07
GOOD
Co-GM with McDaniels era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 8-8 | Missed | -0.05 |
| 2010 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.06 |
1995–2008
θ +0.34 *
ELITE
HC with final say throughout
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 8-8 | — | +0.04 |
| 1996 | 13-3 | — | +0.20 |
| 1997 | 12-4 | — | +0.47 |
| 1998 | 14-2 | — | +0.61 |
| 1999 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.76 |
| 2000 | 11-5 | Lost WC | +0.70 |
| 2001 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.75 |
| 2002 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.69 |
| 2003 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.55 |
| 2004 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.43 |
| 2005 | 13-3 | Lost Conf | +0.38 |
| 2006 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.23 |
| 2007 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.02 |
| 2008 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.02 |
1994
θ +0.36 *
ELITE
GM under HC Wade Phillips
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 7-9 | — | +0.27 |
1985–1993
θ +0.36 *
ELITE
Named GM 1985 with Reeves as VP HC; Director Player Personnel 1981-1984
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 11-5 | — | -0.03 |
| 1986 | 11-5 | — | -0.02 |
| 1987 | 10-4-1 | — | +0.03 |
| 1988 | 8-8 | — | +0.04 |
| 1989 | 11-5 | — | -0.04 |
| 1990 | 5-11 | — | +0.03 |
| 1991 | 12-4 | — | +0.12 |
| 1992 | 8-8 | — | +0.26 |
| 1993 | 9-7 | — | +0.34 |
1980–1984
θ +0.46 *
ELITE
Pre-Beake era; ownership-driven personnel under Edgar Kaiser; diffuse
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 8-8 | — | — |
| 1981 | 10-6 | — | -0.09 |
| 1982 | 2-7 | — | -0.03 |
| 1983 | 9-7 | — | +0.24 |
| 1984 | 13-3 | — | +0.37 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.