2021–2025
θ +0.58
ELITE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-13-1 | Missed | +0.02 |
| 2022 | 9-8 | Missed | +0.29 |
| 2023 | 12-5 | Lost Conf | +0.91 |
| 2024 | 15-2 | Lost Divisional | +1.44 |
| 2025 | 9-8 | Missed | +1.54 |
Detroit Lions
Composite skill θ for every GM in Detroit Lions history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
6
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.58
Brad Holmes
Worst θ
-0.43
Martin Mayhew
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Brad Holmes2021–2025θ +0.58
Bob Quinn2016–2020θ -0.37
Martin Mayhew2009–2015θ -0.43
Matt Millen2001–2008θ -0.13
Chuck Schmidt1989–2000θ +0.35
Russ Thomas1980–1988θ -0.10
General managers (6) · newest first
2016–2020
θ -0.37 *
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9-7 | Lost WC | +0.07 |
| 2017 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.13 |
| 2018 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.25 |
| 2019 | 3-12-1 | Missed | +0.15 |
| 2020 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.07 |
2009–2015
θ -0.43 *
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2-14 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2010 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.14 |
| 2011 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.12 |
| 2012 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.12 |
| 2013 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.15 |
| 2014 | 11-5 | Lost WC | +0.21 |
| 2015 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.13 |
2001–2008
θ -0.13
BAD
Famously bad
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 2-14 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2002 | 3-13 | Missed | +0.04 |
| 2003 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.03 |
| 2004 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.03 |
| 2005 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.00 |
| 2006 | 3-13 | Missed | -0.03 |
| 2007 | 7-9 | Missed | -0.24 |
| 2008 | 0-16 | Missed | -0.34 |
1989–2000
θ +0.35 *
ELITE
GM after Russ Thomas; Wayne Fontes era; long-tenured de facto GM through 2000
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 7-9 | — | +0.12 |
| 1990 | 6-10 | — | +0.32 |
| 1991 | 12-4 | — | +0.48 |
| 1992 | 5-11 | — | +0.50 |
| 1993 | 10-6 | — | +0.44 |
| 1994 | 9-7 | — | +0.50 |
| 1995 | 10-6 | — | +0.61 |
| 1996 | 5-11 | — | +0.64 |
| 1997 | 9-7 | — | +0.71 |
| 1998 | 5-11 | — | +0.71 |
| 1999 | 8-8 | Lost WC | +0.71 |
| 2000 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.67 |
1980–1988
θ -0.10
BAD
GM 1967-1988; long tenure ended before Lions front office overhaul
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 9-7 | — | — |
| 1981 | 8-8 | — | +0.13 |
| 1982 | 4-5 | — | +0.07 |
| 1983 | 9-7 | — | +0.10 |
| 1984 | 4-11-1 | — | +0.05 |
| 1985 | 7-9 | — | +0.02 |
| 1986 | 5-11 | — | -0.03 |
| 1987 | 4-11 | — | -0.08 |
| 1988 | 4-12 | — | -0.09 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.