2024–2025
θ +0.09
GOOD
EVP Player Personnel post-Belichick; with Mayo HC 2024 then Vrabel HC 2025
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-13 | Missed | +0.12 |
| 2025 | 14-3 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.52 |
New England Patriots
Composite skill θ for every GM in New England Patriots history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
7
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.27
Bill Belichick
Worst θ
-0.49
Patrick Sullivan
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Eliot Wolf2024–2025θ +0.09
Bill Belichick2000–2023θ +0.27
Bobby Grier1997–1999θ -0.40
Bill Parcells1994–1996θ +0.04
Sam Jankovich1990–1993θ -0.20
Patrick Sullivan1983–1989θ -0.49
Bucko Kilroy1980–1982θ +0.22
General managers (7) · newest first
2000–2023
θ +0.27
GOOD
De facto GM throughout
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.81 |
| 2001 | 11-5 | WON SUPER BOWL | -0.68 |
| 2002 | 9-7 | Missed | -0.54 |
| 2003 | 14-2 | WON SUPER BOWL | -0.34 |
| 2004 | 14-2 | WON SUPER BOWL | -0.18 |
| 2005 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | -0.01 |
| 2006 | 12-4 | Lost Conf | +0.13 |
| 2007 | 16-0 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.47 |
| 2008 | 11-5 | Missed | +0.45 |
| 2009 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.45 |
| 2010 | 14-2 | Lost Divisional | +0.55 |
| 2011 | 13-3 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.53 |
| 2012 | 12-4 | Lost Conf | +0.48 |
| 2013 | 12-4 | Lost Conf | +0.46 |
| 2014 | 12-4 | WON SUPER BOWL | +0.49 |
| 2015 | 12-4 | Lost Conf | +0.66 |
| 2016 | 14-2 | WON SUPER BOWL | +0.73 |
| 2017 | 13-3 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.76 |
| 2018 | 11-5 | WON SUPER BOWL | +0.62 |
| 2019 | 12-4 | Lost WC | +0.60 |
| 2020 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.51 |
| 2021 | 10-7 | Lost WC | +0.43 |
| 2022 | 8-9 | Missed | +0.40 |
| 2023 | 4-13 | Missed | +0.35 |
1997–1999
θ -0.40
TERRIBLE
VP Player Personnel under Carroll
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 10-6 | — | -0.03 |
| 1998 | 9-7 | — | -0.03 |
| 1999 | 8-8 | Missed | -0.04 |
1994–1996
θ +0.04
AVERAGE
HC with final say; left for NYJ after famously losing personnel control fight
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 10-6 | — | -0.02 |
| 1995 | 6-10 | — | +0.13 |
| 1996 | 11-5 | — | +0.22 |
1990–1993
θ -0.20
BAD
Named CEO Dec 1990 with complete organizational control
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1-15 | — | -0.13 |
| 1991 | 6-10 | — | -0.16 |
| 1992 | 2-14 | — | -0.16 |
| 1993 | 5-11 | — | -0.19 |
1983–1989
θ -0.49 *
TERRIBLE
Owner family; ran personnel through Sullivan-ownership era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 8-8 | — | -0.04 |
| 1984 | 9-7 | — | -0.24 |
| 1985 | 11-5 | — | -0.17 |
| 1986 | 11-5 | — | -0.21 |
| 1987 | 8-7 | — | -0.29 |
| 1988 | 9-7 | — | -0.31 |
| 1989 | 5-11 | — | -0.35 |
1980–1982
θ +0.22
GOOD
Named GM April 1979; served through 1982; then VP
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 10-6 | — | — |
| 1981 | 2-14 | — | -0.07 |
| 1982 | 5-4 | — | -0.05 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.