2021–2025
θ +0.06
GOOD
Hired Jan 2021; ran 2025 draft
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.17 |
| 2022 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.19 |
| 2023 | 7-10 | Missed | +0.13 |
| 2024 | 8-9 | Missed | +0.09 |
| 2025 | 8-9 | Missed | +0.17 |
Atlanta Falcons
Composite skill θ for every GM in Atlanta Falcons history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
7
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.78
Rich McKay
Worst θ
-0.98
Ken Herock
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Terry Fontenot2021–2025θ +0.06
Thomas Dimitroff2008–2020θ +0.10
Rich McKay2004–2007θ +0.78
Harold Richardson1996–2003θ -0.01
Ken Herock1986–1995θ -0.98
Tom Braatz1983–1985θ +0.10
Eddie LeBaron1980–1982θ -0.29
General managers (7) · newest first
2008–2020
θ +0.10
GOOD
8-time GM-of-the-year nominee era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 11-5 | Lost WC | -0.03 |
| 2009 | 9-7 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2010 | 13-3 | Lost Divisional | +0.08 |
| 2011 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.11 |
| 2012 | 13-3 | Lost Conf | +0.33 |
| 2013 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2014 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2015 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.07 |
| 2016 | 11-5 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.30 |
| 2017 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.38 |
| 2018 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.31 |
| 2019 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.34 |
| 2020 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.35 |
2004–2007
θ +0.78 **
ELITE
Came from TB Dec 2003
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 11-5 | Lost Conf | +0.88 |
| 2005 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.86 |
| 2006 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.79 |
| 2007 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.72 |
1996–2003
θ -0.01
AVERAGE
VP Football Operations; no formal GM
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 3-13 | — | -0.00 |
| 1997 | 7-9 | — | -0.01 |
| 1998 | 14-2 | — | +0.03 |
| 1999 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.08 |
| 2000 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.05 |
| 2001 | 7-9 | Missed | -0.04 |
| 2002 | 9-6-1 | Lost Divisional | +0.05 |
| 2003 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.08 |
1986–1995
θ -0.98 **
TERRIBLE
VP Player Personnel; long-tenured ATL exec; covers post-Braatz era and into Falcons' transition
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | 7-8-1 | — | -0.05 |
| 1987 | 3-12 | — | -0.09 |
| 1988 | 5-11 | — | -0.18 |
| 1989 | 3-13 | — | -0.27 |
| 1990 | 5-11 | — | -0.27 |
| 1991 | 10-6 | — | -0.30 |
| 1992 | 6-10 | — | -0.29 |
| 1993 | 6-10 | — | -0.28 |
| 1994 | 7-9 | — | -0.38 |
| 1995 | 9-7 | — | -0.51 |
1983–1985
θ +0.10
GOOD
GM; reassigned to Director College Scouting after 1985
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 7-9 | — | -0.01 |
| 1984 | 4-12 | — | -0.05 |
| 1985 | 4-12 | — | -0.15 |
1980–1982
θ -0.29
BAD
GM; promoted to Executive VP 1982; pre-Braatz era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 12-4 | — | — |
| 1981 | 7-9 | — | +0.35 |
| 1982 | 5-4 | — | +0.11 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.