2022–2025
θ -0.03
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13-4 | Lost WC | -0.02 |
| 2023 | 7-10 | Missed | -0.05 |
| 2024 | 14-3 | Lost WC | -0.15 |
| 2025 | 9-8 | Missed | -0.08 |
Minnesota Vikings
Composite skill θ for every GM in Minnesota Vikings history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
8
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.50
Rick Spielman
Worst θ
-0.08
Frank Gilliam
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah2022–2025θ -0.03
Rick Spielman2012–2021θ -0.03
Rick Spielman2006–2011θ +0.50
Mike Tice / Brzezinski2002–2005θ +0.24
Frank Gilliam1994–2001θ -0.08
Roger Headrick1992–1993θ -0.07
Jeff Diamond1991–1991θ +0.06
Mike Lynn1980–1990θ +0.38
General managers (8) · newest first
2012–2021
θ -0.03
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.32 |
| 2013 | 5-10-1 | Missed | +0.23 |
| 2014 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.34 |
| 2015 | 11-5 | Lost WC | +0.37 |
| 2016 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.46 |
| 2017 | 13-3 | Lost Conf | +0.54 |
| 2018 | 8-7-1 | Missed | +0.41 |
| 2019 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.54 |
| 2020 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.54 |
| 2021 | 8-9 | Missed | +0.40 |
2006–2011
θ +0.50 *
ELITE
VP Player Personnel under Childress; pre-formal-GM
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.04 |
| 2007 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.08 |
| 2008 | 10-6 | Lost WC | +0.33 |
| 2009 | 12-4 | Lost Conf | +0.60 |
| 2010 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.58 |
| 2011 | 3-13 | Missed | +0.52 |
2002–2005
θ +0.24
GOOD
HC era; no formal GM; Brzezinski cap + Studwell scouting
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.06 |
| 2003 | 9-7 | Missed | -0.05 |
| 2004 | 8-8 | Lost Divisional | +0.21 |
| 2005 | 9-7 | Missed | +0.13 |
1994–2001
θ -0.08
AVERAGE
VP Player Personnel; Headrick/McCombs era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 10-6 | — | -0.03 |
| 1995 | 8-8 | — | -0.02 |
| 1996 | 9-7 | — | +0.06 |
| 1997 | 9-7 | — | +0.08 |
| 1998 | 15-1 | — | +0.26 |
| 1999 | 10-6 | Lost Divisional | +0.20 |
| 2000 | 11-5 | Lost Conf | +0.37 |
| 2001 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.28 |
1992–1993
θ -0.07
AVERAGE
President + de facto GM; post-Lynn era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | 11-5 | — | -0.03 |
| 1993 | 9-7 | — | -0.03 |
1991
θ +0.06
GOOD
VP Football Operations under Lynn 1980-1990; transitional GM for 1991 draft post-Lynn departure for WLAF
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 8-8 | — | -0.05 |
1980–1990
θ +0.38 *
ELITE
GM 1974-1990; Hershel Walker trade era; departed for WLAF
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 9-7 | — | — |
| 1981 | 7-9 | — | -0.20 |
| 1982 | 5-4 | — | -0.22 |
| 1983 | 8-8 | — | -0.20 |
| 1984 | 3-13 | — | -0.22 |
| 1985 | 7-9 | — | -0.25 |
| 1986 | 9-7 | — | -0.12 |
| 1987 | 8-7 | — | +0.04 |
| 1988 | 11-5 | — | +0.33 |
| 1989 | 10-6 | — | +0.42 |
| 1990 | 6-10 | — | +0.47 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.