Derrick Henry · Good GM

All NFL teams

Full-career context

These totals follow Derrick Henry across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.

Games played153

Games started122

Weighted career AV85

Pro Bowls5

AP1 All-Pro1

Career seasons10

Accountability by draft event

What each drafting team received

2016 · Round 2 · #45

TEN draft credit

GM Jon Robinson

Team games119

Team starts88

On-team AV73

On-team PB / AP14 / 1

Excellent+4.22 contribution3rd of 52 picks for this GM

Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.

An Excellent pick

Derrick Henry was Jon Robinson's 3rd-best of 52 picks across his career.

His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +4.22. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Jon Robinson's leaderboard composite θ.

The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.

Opportunity

Did he earn the field?

Games played

119

on drafting team · 153 full-career

Games started

on drafting team · 122 full-career

Snap-z

8.3

8 modeled seasons

Quality

Was that time valuable?

On-team AV

modeled; full weighted AV 85

AV / 1k snaps

18.3

3,990 snaps in rate base

AV-rate z

+0.7

position-year adjusted quality

Recognition

Did the league notice?

Pro Bowls

5 full-career

AP1 All-Pro

1 AP1

all on drafting team · AP2 context 1

All-Decade

context only

Did this pick move Jon Robinson's grade?

The first chart removes the time axis: every Jon Robinson pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Derrick Henry totals +4.22. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.

Aggregate contribution by player

Incremental contribution by season

Above expectationBelow expectationDerrick HenryGM total -8.0Derrick Henry by season +9.3

How much retained production did Derrick Henry return vs. his slot?

Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: RBs drafted within ±5 picks of Derrick Henry since 2010 (8 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.

Derrick HenrySlot-similar peers (8)

Cumulative value over time

Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.

Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro

Full-career season history (10 scored seasons)

Year	Team	GP	GS	Snaps	Snap-z	AV	AV/snap	PB	AP1	AP2
2016	TEN	15	0	270	-0.0	4	14.8
2017	TEN	16	3	408	0.6	6	14.7
2018	TEN	16	4	401	0.6	7	17.5
2019	TEN	15	14	589	1.3	13	22.1	✓		·
2020	TEN	16	16	705	2.2	16	22.7	✓	★
2021	TEN	8	8	411	0.7	7	17.0
2022	TEN	16	15	648	1.7	11	17.0	✓
2023	TEN	17	9	558	1.2	9	16.1	✓
2024	BAL	17	13	635	1.5	16	25.2
2025	BAL	17	11	555	1.2	13	23.4

How to read this

The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.