2020–2025
θ -0.04
AVERAGE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 11-5 | Lost Divisional | -0.03 |
| 2021 | 8-9 | Missed | -0.08 |
| 2022 | 7-10 | Missed | -0.08 |
| 2023 | 11-6 | Lost WC | +0.08 |
| 2024 | 3-14 | Missed | -0.13 |
| 2025 | 5-12 | Missed | -0.06 |
Cleveland Browns
Composite skill θ for every GM in Cleveland Browns history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1980–2025
first → last draft
GMs
13
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.71
John Dorsey
Worst θ
-0.58
Tom Heckert
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Andrew Berry2020–2025θ -0.04
John Dorsey2018–2019θ +0.71
Sashi Brown2016–2017θ +0.08
Ray Farmer2014–2015θ -0.25
Mike Lombardi2013–2013θ -0.27
Tom Heckert2010–2012θ -0.58
George Kokinis2009–2009θ -0.30
Phil Savage2005–2008θ +0.41
Butch Davis2002–2004θ -0.43
Dwight Clark1999–2001θ -0.16
Bill Belichick1991–1995θ +0.27
Ernie Accorsi1985–1990θ -0.05
Art Modell/staff1980–1984θ -0.02
General managers (13) · newest first
2018–2019
θ +0.71 **
ELITE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 7-8-1 | Missed | +1.07 |
| 2019 | 6-10 | Missed | +1.03 |
2016–2017
θ +0.08
GOOD
Analytics era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1-15 | Missed | -0.15 |
| 2017 | 0-16 | Missed | -0.07 |
2014–2015
θ -0.25
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 7-9 | Missed | -0.08 |
| 2015 | 3-13 | Missed | -0.13 |
2013
θ -0.27
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.12 |
2010–2012
θ -0.58
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2011 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.03 |
| 2012 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.03 |
2009
θ -0.30
BAD
GM Jan-Nov 2009; Mangini HC with input
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 5-11 | Missed | -0.04 |
2005–2008
θ +0.41 *
ELITE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 6-10 | Missed | -0.05 |
| 2006 | 4-12 | Missed | -0.06 |
| 2007 | 10-6 | Missed | +0.08 |
| 2008 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.13 |
2002–2004
θ -0.43
TERRIBLE
HC with personnel control
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 9-7 | Lost WC | -0.03 |
| 2003 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.01 |
| 2004 | 4-12 | Missed | +0.02 |
1999–2001
θ -0.16
BAD
Director Football Ops; expansion-era new Browns under Carmen Policy
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 2-14 | Missed | -0.00 |
| 2000 | 3-13 | Missed | +0.05 |
| 2001 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.02 |
1991–1995
θ +0.27
GOOD
HC + de facto GM; pre-Baltimore relocation (1991-1995); Mike Lombardi Director Pro Personnel
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 6-10 | — | -0.07 |
| 1992 | 7-9 | — | -0.07 |
| 1993 | 7-9 | — | -0.06 |
| 1994 | 11-5 | — | +0.11 |
| 1995 | 5-11 | — | +0.04 |
1985–1990
θ -0.05
AVERAGE
Pre-Belichick CLE era; Director of Football Operations / GM
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 8-8 | — | -0.16 |
| 1986 | 12-4 | — | -0.19 |
| 1987 | 10-5 | — | -0.33 |
| 1988 | 10-6 | — | -0.44 |
| 1989 | 9-6-1 | — | -0.32 |
| 1990 | 3-13 | — | -0.24 |
1980–1984
θ -0.02
AVERAGE
Owner-driven era; Bill Davis as VP Player Personnel; pre-Accorsi
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 11-5 | — | — |
| 1981 | 5-11 | — | -0.07 |
| 1982 | 4-5 | — | -0.06 |
| 1983 | 9-7 | — | +0.13 |
| 1984 | 5-11 | — | +0.13 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.