2024–2025
θ +0.01
AVERAGE
Hired Jan 2024
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5-12 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2025 | 8-9 | Lost WC | +0.04 |
Carolina Panthers
Composite skill θ for every GM in Carolina Panthers history, alongside the team's regular-season W-L and playoff result by year.
Years covered
1995–2025
first → last draft
GMs
7
tenures, newest first
Best θ
+0.70
Bill Polian
Worst θ
-0.38
Dave Gettleman
θ trajectory by GM
Each line is one GM's support estimate at successive season-end snapshots, color-coded by tenure. Lines carry forward past a GM's tenure: drafted players' careers keep playing out, so the model keeps revising its read of an old GM long after they're gone (a 7th-round flier turning into a Pro Bowler in year 6 still credits the GM who drafted him). Background bands mark each GM's actual tenure span. These paths show evidence accumulating over time; they are not the maturity-adjusted headline ranking and deliberately do not display a public interval.
Dan Morgan2024–2025θ +0.01
Scott Fitterer2021–2023θ -0.15
Marty Hurney2017–2020θ +0.21
Dave Gettleman2013–2016θ -0.38
Marty Hurney2002–2012θ +0.21
Dom Anile1998–2001θ +0.24
Bill Polian1995–1997θ +0.70
General managers (7) · newest first
2021–2023
θ -0.15
BAD
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5-12 | Missed | -0.06 |
| 2022 | 7-10 | Missed | -0.07 |
| 2023 | 2-15 | Missed | -0.28 |
2017–2020
θ +0.21
GOOD
Second stint
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 11-5 | Lost WC | +0.15 |
| 2018 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.19 |
| 2019 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.16 |
| 2020 | 5-11 | Missed | +0.29 |
2013–2016
θ -0.38 *
TERRIBLE
NA
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 12-4 | Lost Divisional | -0.05 |
| 2014 | 7-8-1 | Lost Divisional | +0.02 |
| 2015 | 15-1 | Lost Super Bowl | +0.06 |
| 2016 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.12 |
2002–2012
θ +0.21
GOOD
First stint
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 7-9 | Missed | -0.04 |
| 2003 | 11-5 | Lost Super Bowl | -0.02 |
| 2004 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.20 |
| 2005 | 11-5 | Lost Conf | +0.23 |
| 2006 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.28 |
| 2007 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.16 |
| 2008 | 12-4 | Lost Divisional | +0.29 |
| 2009 | 8-8 | Missed | +0.33 |
| 2010 | 2-14 | Missed | +0.38 |
| 2011 | 6-10 | Missed | +0.29 |
| 2012 | 7-9 | Missed | +0.09 |
1998–2001
θ +0.24
GOOD
Director of Player Personnel; no formal GM in Richardson family era
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 4-12 | — | -0.02 |
| 1999 | 8-8 | Missed | -0.01 |
| 2000 | 7-9 | Missed | -0.02 |
| 2001 | 1-15 | Missed | +0.01 |
1995–1997
θ +0.70 **
ELITE
Founding GM; left for IND
| Year | W-L-T | Playoffs | θ snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 7-9 | — | +0.07 |
| 1996 | 12-4 | — | +0.06 |
| 1997 | 7-9 | — | +0.07 |
How to read this
- Support snapshot per year is the point estimate from a full NUTS MCMC refit on picks-through-that-year, computed by
R/06_incremental_theta.R. It shows evidence accumulation and is not a separate published ranking. The current headline uses the maturity-adjusted deep v30 composite through 2025. - Tenure attribution follows
data/gm_tenures.csv. De-facto draft heads (HCs with personnel power, owner-GMs) are credited too. See each card's note line for the role. - Pre-1999 W-L records come from Wikipedia {year}_NFL_season standings; 1999+ from nflverse schedules. Pre-1999 playoff exit isn't yet detected per-team and shows "—".
- Pre-1994 model coverage is included through the 1980 expansion. Older GMs still carry wider uncertainty because their evidence is farther from the modern snap-count era.
- Era effects: HOF voting standards, Pro Bowl culture, and AV calibration shift across decades. Cross-era θ comparisons should be read with a grain of salt; same-team θ deltas are more reliable than league-wide ones.