2011 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for Marty Hurney

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 254 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2011 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2011 class highlighted · 31 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1
1.1	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	Marty Hurney	115	133	3	1
1.31	Cameron Heyward	DE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	115	228	7	4
1.11	J.J. Watt	DE	HOU	Rick Smith	110	128	5	5
1.24	Cameron Jordan	DE	NO	Mickey Loomis	109	243	8	1
1.2	Von Miller	LB	DEN	John Elway	105	142	8	3
1.5	Patrick Peterson	DB	ARI	Rod Graves	103	154	8	3
6.191	Jason Kelce	C	PHI	Howie Roseman	102	193	7	6
1.6	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	101	135	7	2
5.154	Richard Sherman	DB	SEA	John Schneider	97	105	5	3
2.35	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	92	133	3

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.61	Jonas Mouton	LB	LAC	A.J. Smith	0	2
2.33	Ras-I Dowling	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	1	4
2.38	Ryan Williams	RB	ARI	Rod Graves	1	2
2.52	Marvin Austin	DT	NYG	Jerry Reese	2	4
1.32	Derek Sherrod	T	GB	Ted Thompson	3	4
2.60	Brandon Harris	DB	HOU	Rick Smith	3	4
1.26	Jonathan Baldwin	WR	KC	Scott Pioli	4	3
2.54	Jaiquawn Jarrett	DB	PHI	Howie Roseman	5	5
2.57	Mikel Leshoure	RB	DET	Martin Mayhew	5	3
2.49	Ben Ijalana	T	IND	Bill Polian	6	7

All picks (254) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1
1.1	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	Marty Hurney	115	133	129	1	1
1.2	Von Miller	LB	DEN	John Elway	105	142	142	6	3
1.3	Marcell Dareus	DT	BUF	Buddy Nix	56	91	85		1
1.4	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	77	127	125
1.5	Patrick Peterson	DB	ARI	Rod Graves	103	154	154	5	3
1.6	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	101	135	134	5	2
1.7	Aldon Smith	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	34	50	30	1	1
1.8	Jake Locker	QB	TEN	Ruston Webster	15	30	23
1.9	Tyron Smith	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	91	161	161	5	2
1.10	Blaine Gabbert	QB	JAX	Gene Smith	17	28	27
1.11	J.J. Watt	DE	HOU	Rick Smith	110	128	128
1.12	Christian Ponder	QB	MIN	Rick Spielman	22	38	36
1.13	Nick Fairley	DT	DET	Martin Mayhew	23	46	30
1.14	Robert Quinn	DE	LAR	Billy Devaney	69	95	76		1
1.15	Mike Pouncey	G	MIA	Jeff Ireland	52	93	93
1.16	Ryan Kerrigan	DE	WAS	Bruce Allen	63	156	141	4
1.17	Nate Solder	T	NE	Bill Belichick	64	98	95
1.18	Corey Liuget	DT	LAC	A.J. Smith	42	108	103
1.19	Prince Amukamara	DB	NYG	Jerry Reese	36	55	45
1.20	Adrian Clayborn	DE	TB	Mark Dominik	26	36	36
1.21	Phil Taylor	DT	CLE	Tom Heckert	19	44	42
1.22	Anthony Castonzo	T	IND	Bill Polian	58	144	144
1.23	Danny Watkins	G	PHI	Howie Roseman	9	23	18
1.24	Cameron Jordan	DE	NO	Mickey Loomis	109	243	242	6	1
1.25	James Carpenter	T	SEA	John Schneider	49	45	39
1.26	Jonathan Baldwin	WR	KC	Scott Pioli	4	26	10
1.27	Jimmy Smith	DB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	33	128	90
1.28	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	Mickey Loomis	66	123	69
1.29	Gabe Carimi	T	CHI	Jerry Angelo	12	18	16
1.30	Muhammad Wilkerson	DT	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	58	105	101
1.31	Cameron Heyward	DE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	115	228	193	7	3
1.32	Derek Sherrod	T	GB	Ted Thompson	3	20	1
2.33	Ras-I Dowling	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	1	9	2
2.34	Aaron Williams	DB	BUF	Buddy Nix	17	59	52
2.35	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	92	133	133	2
2.36	Colin Kaepernick	QB	SF	Trent Baalke	45	69	58
2.37	Jabaal Sheard	DE	CLE	Tom Heckert	47	61	50
2.38	Ryan Williams	RB	ARI	Rod Graves	1	5	3
2.39	Akeem Ayers	LB	TEN	Ruston Webster	28	50	43
2.40	Bruce Carter	LB	DAL	Jerry Jones	20	49	32
2.41	Jarvis Jenkins	DT	WAS	Bruce Allen	23	44	33
2.42	Brooks Reed	LB	HOU	Rick Smith	37	60	52
2.43	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	Rick Spielman	36	140	132	2
2.44	Titus Young	WR	DET	Martin Mayhew	8	26	17
2.45	Rahim Moore	DB	DEN	John Elway	20	57	48
2.46	Orlando Franklin	T	DEN	John Elway	42	63	63
2.47	Lance Kendricks	TE	LAR	Billy Devaney	16	93	79
2.48	Stefen Wisniewski	C	LV	Al Davis era	41	61	61
2.49	Ben Ijalana	T	IND	Bill Polian	6	4	0
2.50	Marcus Gilchrist	DB	LAC	A.J. Smith	33	62	40
2.51	Da'Quan Bowers	DE	TB	Mark Dominik	7	53	10
2.52	Marvin Austin	DT	NYG	Jerry Reese	2	8	0
2.53	Stephen Paea	DT	CHI	Jerry Angelo	19	55	40
2.54	Jaiquawn Jarrett	DB	PHI	Howie Roseman	5	13	2
2.55	Rodney Hudson	C	KC	Scott Pioli	61	51	35
2.56	Shane Vereen	RB	NE	Bill Belichick	25	42	8
2.57	Mikel Leshoure	RB	DET	Martin Mayhew	5	17	14
2.58	Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	37	64	62
2.59	Greg Little	WR	CLE	Tom Heckert	12	48	41
2.60	Brandon Harris	DB	HOU	Rick Smith	3	31	0
2.61	Jonas Mouton	LB	LAC	A.J. Smith	0	3	0
2.62	Daniel Thomas	RB	MIA	Jeff Ireland	11	52	3
2.63	Marcus Gilbert	T	PIT	Kevin Colbert	36	88	87
2.64	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	Ted Thompson	64	130	79
3.65	Terrell McClain	DT	CAR	Marty Hurney	17	12	12
3.66	Dontay Moch	LB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	1	0
3.67	Nate Irving	LB	DEN	John Elway	9	54	12
3.68	Kelvin Sheppard	LB	BUF	Buddy Nix	25	32	24
3.69	Rob Housler	TE	ARI	Rod Graves	9	55	28
3.70	Justin Houston	LB	KC	Scott Pioli	74	102	96	1	1
3.71	DeMarco Murray	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	60	53	47		1
3.72	Martez Wilson	LB	NO	Mickey Loomis	2	33	1
3.73	Stevan Ridley	RB	NE	Bill Belichick	25	52	25
3.74	Ryan Mallett	QB	NE	Bill Belichick	4	4	0
3.75	John Moffitt	G	SEA	John Schneider	6	17	15
3.76	Will Rackley	G	JAX	Gene Smith	8	26	25
3.77	Jurrell Casey	DT	TEN	Ruston Webster	72	139	137	4
3.78	Austin Pettis	WR	LAR	Billy Devaney	8	47	11
3.79	Leonard Hankerson	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	12	31	14
3.80	Chris Culliver	DB	SF	Trent Baalke	12	46	20
3.81	DeMarcus Van Dyke	DB	LV	Al Davis era	3	14	4
3.82	Vincent Brown	WR	LAC	A.J. Smith	9	31	16
3.83	Jerrel Jernigan	WR	NYG	Jerry Reese	2	34	4
3.84	Mason Foster	LB	TB	Mark Dominik	40	57	54
3.85	Jah Reid	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	10	39	7
3.86	Allen Bailey	DE	KC	Scott Pioli	34	102	61
3.87	Drake Nevis	DT	IND	Bill Polian	4	14	3
3.88	Johnny Patrick	DB	NO	Mickey Loomis	4	24	1
3.89	Shareece Wright	DB	LAC	A.J. Smith	21	44	27
3.90	Curtis Marsh	DB	PHI	Howie Roseman	1	24	0
3.91	Akeem Dent	LB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	17	47	20
3.92	Joe Barksdale	T	LV	Al Davis era	35	16	0
3.93	Chris Conte	DB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	28	57	52
3.94	Kenrick Ellis	DT	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	10	47	5
3.95	Curtis Brown	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	2	34	0
3.96	Alex Green	RB	GB	Ted Thompson	5	16	4
3.97	Sione Fua	DT	CAR	Marty Hurney	5	27	12
4.98	Brandon Hogan	DB	CAR	Marty Hurney	0	3	0
4.99	K.J. Wright	LB	SEA	John Schneider	64	144	140
4.100	Da'Norris Searcy	DB	BUF	Buddy Nix	24	62	23
4.101	Clint Boling	G	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	46	111	109
4.102	Jordan Cameron	TE	CLE	Tom Heckert	13	47	31
4.103	Sam Acho	DE	ARI	Rod Graves	30	51	32
4.104	Luke Stocker	TE	TB	Mark Dominik	5	80	56
4.105	Roy Helu	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	13	48	5
4.106	Christian Ballard	DT	MIN	Rick Spielman	3	32	2
4.107	Kris Durham	WR	SEA	John Schneider	5	3	0
4.108	Quinton Carter	DB	DEN	John Elway	5	30	10
4.109	Colin McCarthy	LB	TEN	Ruston Webster	11	36	19
4.110	David Arkin	G	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	0	0
4.111	Clyde Gates	WR	MIA	Jeff Ireland	3	15	0
4.112	Greg Salas	WR	LAR	Billy Devaney	4	6	0
4.113	Chimdi Chekwa	DB	LV	Al Davis era	2	32	4
4.114	Cecil Shorts	WR	JAX	Gene Smith	19	50	34
4.115	Kendall Hunter	RB	SF	Trent Baalke	12	43	1
4.116	Casey Matthews	LB	PHI	Howie Roseman	10	64	15
4.117	James Brewer	T	NYG	Jerry Reese	4	26	8
4.118	Jalil Brown	DB	KC	Scott Pioli	4	29	2
4.119	Delone Carter	RB	IND	Bill Polian	3	26	3
4.120	Alex Henery	K	PHI	Howie Roseman	8	48	0
4.121	Chris Prosinski	DB	JAX	Gene Smith	10	48	9
4.122	Chris Hairston	T	BUF	Buddy Nix	17	41	15
4.123	Tandon Doss	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	4	35	2
4.124	Owen Marecic	RB	CLE	Tom Heckert	0	24	6
4.125	Taiwan Jones	RB	LV	Al Davis era	3	66	0
4.126	Bilal Powell	RB	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	26	109	38
4.127	Roc Carmichael	DB	HOU	Rick Smith	2	6	0
4.128	Cortez Allen	DB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	10	56	18
4.129	Julius Thomas	TE	DEN	John Elway	21	36	25
4.130	Jamie Harper	RB	TEN	Ruston Webster	1	23	0
4.131	Davon House	DB	GB	Ted Thompson	17	55	26
5.132	Kealoha Pilares	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	1	20	0
5.133	Johnny White	RB	BUF	Buddy Nix	0	15	0
5.134	Robert Sands	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	1	0
5.135	Ricky Stanzi	QB	KC	Scott Pioli	0	0	0
5.136	Anthony Sherman	RB	ARI	Rod Graves	5	28	11
5.137	Buster Skrine	DB	CLE	Tom Heckert	35	64	37
5.138	Marcus Cannon	T	NE	Bill Belichick	43	120	73
5.139	Brandon Burton	DB	MIN	Rick Spielman	1	14	1
5.140	Gabe Miller	LB	KC	Scott Pioli	0	0	0
5.141	D.J. Williams	TE	GB	Ted Thompson	4	26	2
5.142	Karl Klug	DT	TEN	Ruston Webster	13	109	8
5.143	Josh Thomas	DB	DAL	Jerry Jones	7	0	0
5.144	Shiloh Keo	DB	HOU	Rick Smith	8	42	11
5.145	Jacquizz Rodgers	RB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	24	63	5
5.146	DeJon Gomes	DB	WAS	Bruce Allen	5	30	8
5.147	Rod Issac	DB	JAX	Gene Smith	0	3	0
5.148	Denarius Moore	WR	LV	Al Davis era	15	51	37
5.149	Dion Lewis	RB	PHI	Howie Roseman	31	24	0
5.150	Jason Pinkston	T	CLE	Tom Heckert	10	25	24
5.151	Ahmad Black	DB	TB	Mark Dominik	3	24	3
5.152	T.J. Yates	QB	HOU	Rick Smith	6	21	10
5.153	Jeremy Kerley	WR	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	23	82	26
5.154	Richard Sherman	DB	SEA	John Schneider	97	105	99	1	3
5.155	Niles Paul	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	7	82	26
5.156	Mark LeGree	DB	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
5.157	Doug Hogue	LB	DET	Martin Mayhew	2	18	0
5.158	Jermale Hines	DB	LAR	Billy Devaney	0	0	0
5.159	Lee Smith	TE	NE	Bill Belichick	5	0	0
5.160	Nathan Enderle	QB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	0	0	0
5.161	Julian Vandervelde	G	PHI	Howie Roseman	1	18	0
5.162	Chris Carter	LB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	6	29	4
5.163	Daniel Kilgore	G	SF	Trent Baalke	26	74	39
5.164	Chykie Brown	DB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	5	46	2
5.165	Pernell McPhee	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	29	92	26
6.166	Lawrence Wilson	LB	CAR	Marty Hurney	0	0	0
6.167	Ryan Whalen	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	17	0
6.168	Demarcus Love	OL	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
6.169	Chris White	LB	BUF	Buddy Nix	3	22	0
6.170	Mistral Raymond	DB	MIN	Rick Spielman	4	32	10
6.171	Quan Sturdivant	LB	ARI	Rod Graves	0	0	0
6.172	Brandon Fusco	C	MIN	Rick Spielman	35	67	64
6.173	Byron Maxwell	DB	SEA	John Schneider	22	54	23
6.174	Charles Clay	TE	MIA	Jeff Ireland	29	58	47
6.175	Byron Stingily	T	TEN	Ruston Webster	4	20	9
6.176	Dwayne Harris	WR	DAL	Jerry Jones	12	52	3
6.177	Evan Royster	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	4	32	2
6.178	Aldrick Robinson	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	12	36	3
6.179	Caleb Schlauderaff	G	GB	Ted Thompson	1	0	0
6.180	Tyrod Taylor	QB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	50	14	0
6.181	Richard Gordon	TE	LV	Al Davis era	0	27	2
6.182	Ronald Johnson	WR	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
6.183	Jordan Todman	RB	LAC	A.J. Smith	5	0	0
6.184	David Carter	DT	ARI	Rod Graves	4	32	4
6.185	Greg Jones	LB	NYG	Jerry Reese	3	16	5
6.186	D.J. Smith	LB	GB	Ted Thompson	5	22	9
6.187	Allen Bradford	RB	TB	Mark Dominik	1	1	0
6.188	Chris Rucker	DB	IND	Bill Polian	2	15	4
6.189	Mike Mohamed	LB	DEN	John Elway	4	3	0
6.190	Colin Jones	DB	SF	Trent Baalke	12	13	0
6.191	Jason Kelce	C	PHI	Howie Roseman	102	193	193	6	6
6.192	Matthew Bosher	K	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	14	130	0
6.193	Brian Rolle	LB	PHI	Howie Roseman	6	20	13
6.194	Markell Carter	LB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
6.195	J.T. Thomas	LB	CHI	Jerry Angelo	12	16	0
6.196	Keith Williams	G	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
6.197	Ricky Elmore	DL	GB	Ted Thompson	0	0	0
6.198	Tyler Sash	DB	NYG	Jerry Reese	1	23	0
6.199	Jerrell Powe	DT	KC	Scott Pioli	5	12	1
6.200	Ross Homan	LB	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
6.201	Stephen Schilling	G	LAC	A.J. Smith	5	18	2
6.202	Jacquian Williams	LB	NYG	Jerry Reese	13	51	22
6.203	Zachary Williams	OL	CAR	Marty Hurney	0	0	0
7.204	Virgil Green	TE	DEN	John Elway	8	100	49
7.205	Pep Levingston	DL	SEA	John Schneider	0	4	0
7.206	Justin Rogers	DB	BUF	Buddy Nix	4	34	7
7.207	Korey Lindsey	DB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
7.208	Greg McElroy	QB	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	1	2	1
7.209	Johnny Culbreath	OL	DET	Martin Mayhew	0	0	0
7.210	Andrew Jackson	OL	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	0	0	0
7.211	Bruce Miller	DE	SF	Trent Baalke	7	77	47
7.212	Zach Clayton	DT	TEN	Ruston Webster	0	3	0
7.213	Brandyn Thompson	DB	WAS	Bruce Allen	1	6	0
7.214	Derek Newton	T	HOU	Rick Smith	28	82	68
7.215	D'Aundre Reed	DE	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	6	0
7.216	Mikail Baker	DB	LAR	Billy Devaney	0	0	0
7.217	Maurice Hurt	G	WAS	Bruce Allen	6	21	9
7.218	Ryan Taylor	TE	GB	Ted Thompson	0	50	2
7.219	Malcolm Williams	DB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	4	0
7.220	Shaun Chapas	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	3	0
7.221	Da'Rel Scott	RB	NYG	Jerry Reese	1	20	1
7.222	Anthony Gaitor	DB	TB	Mark Dominik	1	12	2
7.223	Shane Bannon	RB	KC	Scott Pioli	0	0	0
7.224	Markus White	DE	WAS	Bruce Allen	0	2	0
7.225	Anthony Allen	RB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	1	21	0
7.226	Greg Romeus	DL	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	0	0
7.227	Scotty McKnight	WR	NYJ	Mike Tannenbaum	0	0	0
7.228	Jabara Williams	LB	LAR	Billy Devaney	0	2	0
7.229	Jonathan Nelson	DB	LAR	Billy Devaney	1	0	0
7.230	Cliff Matthews	DE	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	3	35	0
7.231	Frank Kearse	DT	MIA	Jeff Ireland	5	0	0
7.232	Baron Batch	RB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	1	12	0
7.233	Lawrence Guy	DT	GB	Ted Thompson	63	0	0
7.234	Andrew Gachkar	LB	LAC	A.J. Smith	9	63	8
7.235	Jimmy Wilson	DB	MIA	Jeff Ireland	12	60	21
7.236	Stephen Burton	WR	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	15	1
7.237	Greg Lloyd	LB	PHI	Howie Roseman	0	0	0
7.238	Daniel Hardy	TE	TB	Mark Dominik	0	0	0
7.239	Michael Person	G	SF	Trent Baalke	23	30	30
7.240	Stanley Havili	RB	PHI	Howie Roseman	1	15	2
7.241	David Ausberry	WR	LV	Al Davis era	1	34	0
7.242	Malcolm Smith	LB	SEA	John Schneider	32	57	16
7.243	Nate Bussey	LB	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	0	0
7.244	Lee Ziemba	T	CAR	Marty Hurney	1	6	0
7.245	Michael Jasper	DT	BUF	Buddy Nix	0	0	0
7.246	Jay Finley	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
7.247	Jeremy Beal	DL	DEN	John Elway	0	0	0
7.248	Eric Hagg	DB	CLE	Tom Heckert	3	22	4
7.249	DeMarco Sampson	WR	ARI	Rod Graves	0	12	0
7.250	Curtis Holcomb	DB	SF	Trent Baalke	0	0	0
7.251	Tommie Campbell	DB	TEN	Ruston Webster	4	37	0
7.252	Bill Nagy	G	DAL	Jerry Jones	2	4	4
7.253	Chris Neild	DT	WAS	Bruce Allen	2	24	0
7.254	Cheta Ozougwu	DE	HOU	Rick Smith	0	0	0

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.