Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
A Good pick
Aaron Williams was Buddy Nix's 7th-best of 35 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.23. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Buddy Nix's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
59
on drafting team
Games started
52
on drafting team
Snap-z
0.8
4 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
18
modeled; full weighted AV 17
AV / 1k snaps
5.1
2,572 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.1
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Buddy Nix's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Buddy Nix pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Aaron Williams totals +0.23. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationAaron WilliamsGM total -11.2Aaron Williams by season +0.8
How much retained production did Aaron Williams return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DBs drafted within ±5 picks of Aaron Williams since 2010 (17 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Aaron WilliamsSlot-similar peers (17)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (6 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2011
BUF
9
6
—
—
2
—
2012
BUF
11
10
—
—
3
—
2013
BUF
14
14
1,031
1.2
5
4.8
2014
BUF
15
15
978
1.1
5
5.1
2015
BUF
3
3
201
-1.0
1
5.0
2016
BUF
7
5
362
-0.5
2
5.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
