Average-0.21 contribution11th of 26 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Robert Quinn became a 12-season, 169-game NFL player after going #14. The retained-value model still ranks him 11th of 26 for Billy Devaney because LAR only got 95 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.21. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Billy Devaney's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
95
on drafting team · 169 full-career
Games started
76
on drafting team · 142 full-career
Snap-z
3.1
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
51
modeled; full weighted AV 69
AV / 1k snaps
13.0
3,219 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.8
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
3 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
1 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Billy Devaney's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Billy Devaney pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Robert Quinn totals -0.21. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationRobert QuinnGM total -9.2Robert Quinn by season -0.8
How much retained production did Robert Quinn return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DEs drafted within ±5 picks of Robert Quinn since 2010 (17 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Robert QuinnSlot-similar peers (17)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2011
LAR
15
1
—
—
2
—
2012
LAR
16
14
—
—
7
—
2013
LAR
16
16
914
1.3
16
17.5
★
2014
LAR
16
16
870
1.4
12
13.8
2015
LAR
8
6
367
-0.3
4
10.9
2016
LAR
9
8
397
-0.1
4
10.1
2017
LAR
15
14
671
0.7
6
8.9
2018
MIA
16
14
644
0.8
6
9.3
2019
DAL
14
13
708
1.1
8
11.3
2020
CHI
15
10
548
0.4
6
10.9
2021
CHI
16
16
756
1.1
11
14.6
2022
CHI, PHI
13
7
399
-1.4
3
7.5
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
