Terrible-5.44 contribution26th of 26 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Blaine Gabbert became a 13-season, 69-game NFL player after going #10. The retained-value model still ranks him 26th of 26 for Gene Smith because JAX only got 28 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -5.44. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Gene Smith's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
28
on drafting team · 69 full-career
Games started
27
on drafting team · 49 full-career
Snap-z
-0.8
1 modeled season
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
8
modeled; full weighted AV 17
AV / 1k snaps
6.3
159 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.2
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Gene Smith's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Gene Smith pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Blaine Gabbert totals -5.44. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationBlaine GabbertGM total -19.7Blaine Gabbert by season -10.4
How much retained production did Blaine Gabbert return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Blaine Gabbert since 2010 (15 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2011
JAX
15
14
—
—
4
—
2012
JAX
10
10
—
—
3
—
2013
JAX
3
3
159
-0.8
1
6.3
2014
SF
1
0
9
-1.1
0
0.0
2015
SF
8
8
509
0.1
5
9.8
2016
SF
6
5
345
-0.3
0
0.0
2017
ARI
5
5
342
-0.3
2
5.8
2018
TEN
8
3
211
-0.6
2
9.5
2019
—
0
0
0
—
0
—
2020
TB
4
0
49
-0.9
1
20.4
2021
TB
6
0
45
-0.9
0
0.0
2022
TB
1
0
14
-1.0
0
0.0
2023
KC
2
1
79
-0.9
1
12.7
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
