Terrible-2.17 contribution34th of 36 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Long-career hit
Luke Stocker became a 11-season, 142-game NFL player after going #104. The retained-value model still ranks him 34th of 36 for Mark Dominik because TB only got 80 of those games.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -2.17. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Mark Dominik's leaderboard composite θ.
Full-career context prevents this from being labeled as a bad talent pick: the negative model score is about retained team value, not whether the draft identified an NFL-caliber player.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
80
on drafting team · 142 full-career
Games started
56
on drafting team · 91 full-career
Snap-z
-1.0
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
3
modeled; full weighted AV 5
AV / 1k snaps
0.6
1,783 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
-0.4
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Mark Dominik's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Mark Dominik pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Luke Stocker totals -2.17. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationLuke StockerGM total -4.6Luke Stocker by season -4.7
How much retained production did Luke Stocker return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: TEs drafted within ±5 picks of Luke Stocker since 2010 (13 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Luke StockerSlot-similar peers (13)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (11 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2011
TB
14
9
—
—
1
—
2012
TB
16
11
—
—
1
—
2013
TB
2
2
120
-1.0
0
0.0
2014
TB
13
10
491
0.2
0
0.0
2015
TB
14
8
565
0.5
1
1.8
2016
TB
12
6
401
0.0
0
0.0
2017
TB, TEN
12
2
290
-1.9
0
0.0
2018
TEN
16
11
670
1.0
1
1.5
2019
ATL
15
8
626
0.9
0
0.0
2020
ATL
16
12
727
1.2
1
1.4
2021
MIN
12
5
316
-0.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
