Excellent+0.81 contribution3rd of 35 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Marcell Dareus was Buddy Nix's 3rd-best of 35 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +0.81. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Buddy Nix's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
91
on drafting team · 121 full-career
Games started
85
on drafting team · 107 full-career
Snap-z
3.6
5 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
52
modeled; full weighted AV 56
AV / 1k snaps
13.1
3,045 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.6
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
2 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
1 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Buddy Nix's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Buddy Nix pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Marcell Dareus totals +0.81. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationMarcell DareusGM total -11.2Marcell Dareus by season +1.8
How much retained production did Marcell Dareus return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: DTs drafted within ±5 picks of Marcell Dareus since 2010 (5 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Marcell DareusSlot-similar peers (5)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (9 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2011
BUF
16
15
—
—
6
—
2012
BUF
16
16
—
—
6
—
2013
BUF
16
14
903
1.5
10
11.1
2014
BUF
15
12
734
1.2
18
24.5
★
2015
BUF
15
14
798
1.5
8
10.0
2016
BUF
8
8
454
0.2
3
6.6
2017
BUF, JAX
14
7
474
-1.0
3
6.3
2018
JAX
15
13
571
0.5
8
14.0
2019
JAX
6
4
206
-0.7
2
9.7
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
