Excellent+1.20 contribution9th of 42 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Kyle Rudolph was Rick Spielman's 9th-best of 42 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +1.20. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Rick Spielman's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
140
on drafting team · 165 full-career
Games started
132
on drafting team · 145 full-career
Snap-z
10.8
8 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
42
modeled; full weighted AV 36
AV / 1k snaps
5.4
6,299 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.3
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
2
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Rick Spielman's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Rick Spielman pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Kyle Rudolph totals +1.20. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationKyle RudolphGM total +14.0Kyle Rudolph by season +3.7
How much retained production did Kyle Rudolph return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: TEs drafted within ±5 picks of Kyle Rudolph since 2010 (11 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Kyle RudolphSlot-similar peers (11)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (12 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2011
MIN
15
8
—
—
2
—
2012
MIN
16
16
—
—
6
—
✓
2013
MIN
8
8
445
0.1
3
6.7
2014
MIN
9
8
435
0.1
2
4.6
2015
MIN
16
16
925
1.7
5
5.4
2016
MIN
16
16
1,035
2.2
7
6.8
2017
MIN
16
14
972
1.9
5
5.1
✓
2018
MIN
16
16
997
2.3
5
5.0
2019
MIN
16
15
866
1.7
4
4.6
2020
MIN
12
12
624
0.9
3
4.8
2021
NYG
16
7
546
0.6
2
3.7
2022
TB
9
0
80
-1.2
0
0.0
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
