Excellent+1.59 contribution2nd of 32 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
An Excellent pick
Justin Houston was Scott Pioli's 2nd-best of 32 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is +1.59. This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Scott Pioli's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
102
on drafting team · 170 full-career
Games started
96
on drafting team · 151 full-career
Snap-z
4.6
6 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
65
modeled; full weighted AV 74
AV / 1k snaps
12.0
4,350 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.8
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
1
4 full-career
AP1 All-Pro
1 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
All-Decade
0
context only
Did this pick move Scott Pioli's grade?
The first chart removes the time axis: every Scott Pioli pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Justin Houston totals +1.59. The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player
Incremental contribution by season
Above expectationBelow expectationJustin HoustonGM total -2.5Justin Houston by season +3.3
How much retained production did Justin Houston return vs. his slot?
Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: LBs drafted within ±5 picks of Justin Houston since 2010 (21 players).The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
Justin HoustonSlot-similar peers (21)
Cumulative value over time
Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
Games started (cumulative)Pro BowlsAP1 All-ProAP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (13 scored seasons)
Year
Team
GP
GS
Snaps
Snap-z
AV
AV/snap
PB
AP1
AP2
2011
KC
16
10
—
—
5
—
2012
KC
16
16
—
—
8
—
✓
2013
KC
11
10
734
0.7
9
12.3
2014
KC
16
16
1,034
1.7
17
16.4
★
2015
KC
11
10
619
0.4
9
14.5
2016
KC
5
5
292
-0.5
3
10.3
2017
KC
15
15
951
1.6
8
8.4
2018
KC
12
11
720
0.8
6
8.3
2019
IND
16
15
675
0.6
8
11.9
2020
IND
16
14
608
0.8
8
13.2
2021
BAL
15
14
579
0.5
8
13.8
2022
BAL
14
5
397
-0.1
2
5.0
2023
CAR, MIA
7
2
181
-0.8
3
16.6
How to read this
The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).
Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.
AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.
Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.
