All NFL teams
Full-career context These totals follow Jake Locker across every NFL team. Draft credit is separated below for each team that selected him.
Games played 30
Games started 23
Weighted career AV 15
Pro Bowls 0
AP1 All-Pro 0
Career seasons 4
Accountability by draft event
What each drafting team received Team games 30
Team starts 23
On-team AV 16
On-team PB / AP1 0 / 0
Average -0.12 contribution 17th of 39 picks for this GM
Games: direct team-season record. Starts: direct team-season record.
Jake Locker was Ruston Webster's 17th-best of 39 picks across his career.
His retained-value contribution score (opportunity plus quality plus recognition, with related outcomes collapsed inside each bucket) is -0.12 . This is a per-pick accountability metric, separate from Ruston Webster's leaderboard composite θ.
The walkthrough below shows which bucket carried the pick: playing time, value quality, or league honors.
Opportunity
Did he earn the field?
Games played
30
on drafting team
Games started
23
on drafting team
Snap-z
-0.6
2 modeled seasons
Quality
Was that time valuable?
On-team AV
16
modeled; full weighted AV 15
AV / 1k snaps
11.5
694 snaps in rate base
AV-rate z
+0.0
position-year adjusted quality
Recognition
Did the league notice?
Pro Bowls
0
all on drafting team
AP1 All-Pro
0 AP1
all on drafting team · AP2 context 0
Data release Published release
2026-08-01-v30-deep-maturity · published 2026-08-01 · drafts 1980–2025 · 190 people in 209 GM-team careers · Multivariate Bayesian drafted-player outcomes model (v30) · maturity-adjusted 95% credible intervals.
This status records the verified public release at the canonical Good GM URL. Methodology · Data & definitions · Public manifest
Did this pick move Ruston Webster's grade? The first chart removes the time axis: every Ruston Webster pick is sorted by retained contribution across opportunity, quality, and recognition. Jake Locker totals -0.12 . The second chart breaks that same contribution into the seasons when the evidence arrived. Opportunity and quality can move separately, which keeps high-snap, low-AV profiles from looking cleaner than they are.
Aggregate contribution by player -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 77. Casey #77 · Jurrell Casey · aggregate +5.98 Casey +6.0 11. Lewan #11 · Taylor Lewan · aggregate +1.12 151. Williamson #151 · Avery Williamson · aggregate +1.04 248. Stafford #248 · Daimion Stafford · aggregate +0.80 251. Campbell #251 · Tommie Campbell · aggregate +0.79 142. Klug #142 · Karl Klug · aggregate +0.52 175. Stingily #175 · Byron Stingily · aggregate +0.47 112. Jones #112 · DaQuan Jones · aggregate +0.40 109. McCarthy #109 · Colin McCarthy · aggregate +0.39 20. Wright #20 · Kendall Wright · aggregate +0.38 107. Schwenke #107 · Brian Schwenke · aggregate +0.35 178. Mettenberger #178 · Zach Mettenberger · aggregate +0.25 208. Gallik #208 · Andy Gallik · aggregate +0.20 82. Martin #82 · Mike Martin · aggregate -0.03 142. Edwards #142 · Lavar Edwards · aggregate -0.03 211. Solomon #211 · Scott Solomon · aggregate -0.06 8. Locker #8 · Jake Locker · aggregate -0.12 Locker -0.1 212. Clayton #212 · Zach Clayton · aggregate -0.19 245. McBride #245 · Tre McBride · aggregate -0.19 115. Sensabaugh #115 · Coty Sensabaugh · aggregate -0.21 130. Harper #130 · Jamie Harper · aggregate -0.25 145. Thompson #145 · Taylor Thompson · aggregate -0.30 202. Wooten #202 · Khalid Wooten · aggregate -0.31 190. Martin #190 · Markelle Martin · aggregate -0.34 39. Ayers #39 · Akeem Ayers · aggregate -0.35 177. Mount #177 · Deiontrez Mount · aggregate -0.36 122. Huff #122 · Marqueston Huff · aggregate -0.45 97. Gooden #97 · Zaviar Gooden · aggregate -0.64 54. Sankey #54 · Bishop Sankey · aggregate -0.65 52. Brown #52 · Zach Brown · aggregate -0.67 108. Fowler #108 · Jalston Fowler · aggregate -0.75 138. Cobb #138 · David Cobb · aggregate -0.75 10. Warmack #10 · Chance Warmack · aggregate -0.89 34. Hunter #34 · Justin Hunter · aggregate -0.91 40. Green-Beckham #40 · Dorial Green-Beckham · aggregate -0.94 66. Poutasi #66 · Jeremiah Poutasi · aggregate -1.10 70. Wreh-Wilson #70 · Blidi Wreh-Wilson · aggregate -1.80 100. Blackson #100 · Angelo Blackson · aggregate -2.58 Blackson -2.6 2. Mariota #2 · Marcus Mariota · aggregate -2.86 Mariota -2.9 Incremental contribution by season -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 2011 · Jake Locker · incremental +0.27 2011 · Karl Klug · incremental +0.47 2011 · Colin McCarthy · incremental +0.81 2011 · Byron Stingily · incremental +1.24 2011 · Tommie Campbell · incremental +1.53 2011 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +4.15 2011 · Jamie Harper · incremental -0.37 2011 · Zach Clayton · incremental -0.37 2011 · Akeem Ayers · incremental -0.72 2012 · Mike Martin · incremental +0.03 2012 · Colin McCarthy · incremental +0.13 2012 · Karl Klug · incremental +0.24 2012 · Tommie Campbell · incremental +0.32 2012 · Kendall Wright · incremental +0.45 2012 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +0.65 2012 · Jamie Harper · incremental -0.01 2012 · Byron Stingily · incremental -0.02 2012 · Akeem Ayers · incremental -0.05 2012 · Coty Sensabaugh · incremental -0.09 2012 · Scott Solomon · incremental -0.14 2012 · Jake Locker · incremental -0.27 2012 · Taylor Thompson · incremental -0.37 2012 · Markelle Martin · incremental -0.64 2012 · Zach Brown · incremental -1.12 2013 · Coty Sensabaugh · incremental +0.01 2013 · Mike Martin · incremental +0.06 2013 · Lavar Edwards · incremental +0.07 2013 · Taylor Thompson · incremental +0.10 2013 · Tommie Campbell · incremental +0.11 2013 · Brian Schwenke · incremental +0.13 2013 · Kendall Wright · incremental +0.19 2013 · Colin McCarthy · incremental +0.22 2013 · Karl Klug · incremental +0.27 2013 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +0.80 2013 · Daimion Stafford · incremental +1.06 2013 · Byron Stingily · incremental -0.02 2013 · Akeem Ayers · incremental -0.06 2013 · Khalid Wooten · incremental -0.13 2013 · Jake Locker · incremental -0.18 2013 · Zach Brown · incremental -0.33 2013 · Zaviar Gooden · incremental -0.55 2013 · Chance Warmack · incremental -0.83 2013 · Blidi Wreh-Wilson · incremental -1.61 2013 · Justin Hunter · incremental -1.62 2014 · Taylor Thompson · incremental +0.02 2014 · Kendall Wright · incremental +0.15 2014 · Brian Schwenke · incremental +0.25 2014 · Daimion Stafford · incremental +0.27 2014 · Karl Klug · incremental +0.28 2014 · Zach Mettenberger · incremental +0.29 2014 · Justin Hunter · incremental +0.59 2014 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +0.68 2014 · Avery Williamson · incremental +0.80 2014 · Akeem Ayers · incremental -0.00 2014 · Zach Brown · incremental -0.01 2014 · Coty Sensabaugh · incremental -0.01 2014 · Byron Stingily · incremental -0.03 2014 · Mike Martin · incremental -0.04 2014 · Jake Locker · incremental -0.10 2014 · Chance Warmack · incremental -0.36 2014 · Marqueston Huff · incremental -0.50 2014 · Khalid Wooten · incremental -0.53 2014 · Bishop Sankey · incremental -0.60 2014 · Taylor Lewan · incremental -0.66 2014 · Zaviar Gooden · incremental -0.73 2014 · DaQuan Jones · incremental -0.95 2014 · Blidi Wreh-Wilson · incremental -1.63 2015 · Mike Martin · incremental +0.04 2015 · Kendall Wright · incremental +0.10 2015 · Brian Schwenke · incremental +0.13 2015 · Daimion Stafford · incremental +0.13 2015 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.18 2015 · Zach Mettenberger · incremental +0.20 2015 · Karl Klug · incremental +0.25 2015 · DaQuan Jones · incremental +0.39 2015 · Andy Gallik · incremental +0.48 2015 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +0.74 2015 · Avery Williamson · incremental +0.98 2015 · Coty Sensabaugh · incremental -0.04 2015 · Khalid Wooten · incremental -0.06 2015 · Zaviar Gooden · incremental -0.16 2015 · Zach Brown · incremental -0.21 2015 · Bishop Sankey · incremental -0.27 2015 · Tre McBride · incremental -0.34 2015 · Chance Warmack · incremental -0.36 2015 · Marqueston Huff · incremental -0.41 2015 · Deiontrez Mount · incremental -0.60 2015 · Jalston Fowler · incremental -0.61 2015 · Blidi Wreh-Wilson · incremental -0.91 2015 · David Cobb · incremental -1.02 2015 · Justin Hunter · incremental -1.05 2015 · Dorial Green-Beckham · incremental -1.62 2015 · Jeremiah Poutasi · incremental -1.69 2015 · Angelo Blackson · incremental -3.48 2015 · Marcus Mariota · incremental -4.07 2016 · Zach Mettenberger · incremental +0.09 2016 · Kendall Wright · incremental +0.10 2016 · Karl Klug · incremental +0.10 2016 · Brian Schwenke · incremental +0.22 2016 · DaQuan Jones · incremental +0.47 2016 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.88 2016 · Avery Williamson · incremental +0.99 2016 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +1.79 2016 · Tre McBride · incremental -0.04 2016 · Andy Gallik · incremental -0.06 2016 · Khalid Wooten · incremental -0.07 2016 · Jalston Fowler · incremental -0.11 2016 · David Cobb · incremental -0.19 2016 · Chance Warmack · incremental -0.24 2016 · Bishop Sankey · incremental -0.26 2016 · Daimion Stafford · incremental -0.38 2016 · Marcus Mariota · incremental -0.76 2016 · Angelo Blackson · incremental -2.69 2017 · Zach Mettenberger · incremental +0.09 2017 · Brian Schwenke · incremental +0.21 2017 · Karl Klug · incremental +0.22 2017 · DaQuan Jones · incremental +0.24 2017 · Avery Williamson · incremental +0.64 2017 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.87 2017 · Daimion Stafford · incremental +1.31 2017 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +1.79 2017 · Marqueston Huff · incremental -0.04 2017 · Andy Gallik · incremental -0.06 2017 · Khalid Wooten · incremental -0.07 2017 · Zaviar Gooden · incremental -0.14 2017 · David Cobb · incremental -0.20 2017 · Jeremiah Poutasi · incremental -0.25 2017 · Bishop Sankey · incremental -0.28 2017 · Jalston Fowler · incremental -0.31 2017 · Dorial Green-Beckham · incremental -0.31 2017 · Marcus Mariota · incremental -0.76 2018 · Tre McBride · incremental +0.00 2018 · Zach Mettenberger · incremental +0.10 2018 · DaQuan Jones · incremental +0.33 2018 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.87 2018 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +1.81 2018 · Marqueston Huff · incremental -0.04 2018 · Andy Gallik · incremental -0.06 2018 · David Cobb · incremental -0.19 2018 · Jeremiah Poutasi · incremental -0.23 2018 · Bishop Sankey · incremental -0.26 2018 · Dorial Green-Beckham · incremental -0.28 2018 · Jalston Fowler · incremental -0.44 2018 · Marcus Mariota · incremental -0.60 2019 · Tre McBride · incremental +0.00 2019 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.17 2019 · DaQuan Jones · incremental +0.41 2019 · Jurrell Casey · incremental +1.76 2019 · Andy Gallik · incremental -0.06 2019 · Marcus Mariota · incremental -0.18 2019 · David Cobb · incremental -0.20 2019 · Jeremiah Poutasi · incremental -0.24 2019 · Dorial Green-Beckham · incremental -0.29 2019 · Jalston Fowler · incremental -0.32 2019 · Avery Williamson · incremental -0.36 2020 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.10 2020 · DaQuan Jones · incremental +0.48 2021 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.16 2021 · Avery Williamson · incremental -0.31 2022 · Taylor Lewan · incremental +0.07 Locker +0.3 Casey +4.2 Locker -0.3 Locker -0.2 Hunter -1.6 Locker -0.1 Wreh-Wilson -1.6 Green-Beckham -1.6 Poutasi -1.7 Blackson -3.5 Mariota -4.1 Casey +1.8 Blackson -2.7 Casey +1.8 Casey +1.8 Casey +1.8 2011 9 players 2012 15 players 2013 20 players 2014 23 players 2015 28 players 2016 18 players 2017 18 players 2018 13 players 2019 11 players 2020 2 players 2021 2 players 2022 1 player Above expectation Below expectation Jake Locker GM total -5.0 Jake Locker by season -0.3
How much retained production did Jake Locker return vs. his slot? Each mark below is one player's model value above slot. Light gray marks are slot-similar peers: QBs drafted within ±5 picks of Jake Locker since 2010 (18 players). Dark marks are GOAT-tier benchmarks (Brady, Manning, Mahomes) for orientation.The score is the retained production/value bucket from the pick-residual model: on-team AV plus AV-rate quality, adjusted for draft slot, position, and era. Opportunity snaps and league honors are excluded.
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 Model value above slot 1. Manning Peyton Manning · model value +4.9 +4.9 199. Brady Tom Brady · model value +4.5 +4.5 10. Mahomes Patrick Mahomes · model value +2.8 +2.8 7. Allen Josh Allen · model value +2.6 +2.6 6. Herbert Justin Herbert · model value +1.3 12. Watson Deshaun Watson · model value +1.1 11. Fields Justin Fields · model value +0.8 3. Maye Drake Maye · model value +0.7 5. Tagovailoa Tua Tagovailoa · model value +0.4 12. Nix Bo Nix · model value +0.4 12. Ponder Christian Ponder · model value +0.3 8. Locker Jake Locker · model value -0.1 -0.1 3. Bortles Blake Bortles · model value -0.2 8. Tannehill Ryan Tannehill · model value -0.2 6. Jones Daniel Jones · model value -0.3 8. Penix Michael Penix · model value -0.3 4. Richardson Anthony Richardson · model value -0.5 10. McCarthy J.J. McCarthy · model value -0.9 3. Lance Trey Lance · model value -1.3 3. Darnold Sam Darnold · model value -1.7 10. Rosen Josh Rosen · model value -2.1 -2.1 10. Gabbert Blaine Gabbert · model value -2.2 -2.2 Jake Locker Slot-similar peers (18) GOAT QBs (Brady, Manning, Mahomes)
Cumulative value over time Year-by-year running totals since draft. Left axis = games started. Right axis = honors (Pro Bowl / AP1 / AP2). Pre-2013 picks have no games-started line because that comes from per-game snap counts (not available for older players). Honors extend back to 1980.
'12 '14 '15 0 5 10 15 20 0 1 Cumulative GS Honors count Games started (cumulative) Pro Bowls AP1 All-Pro AP2 All-Pro
Full-career season history (5 scored seasons) How to read this The current model groups outcomes into three buckets: opportunity (games, starts, snap-z), quality (on-team AV, AV/snap quality when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1).Season rows show full-career context across every team. The draft-credit cards above contain the team-specific totals used for GM accountability. Snap-z is position/year-normalized playing time; AV/snap is shown as AV per 1,000 snaps where snap evidence exists.AP2, full-career AV, HOF, and All-Decade are displayed as context only. They are not active outcomes in the current θ model.Pre-2013 playing-time rows may show "—" where weekly snap evidence is unavailable; AV/snap quality is snap-era only.