2018 NFL Draft · Good GM

DESCRIPTIVE → ADJUSTED

Follow the class result into model evidence

The totals on this page describe what happened. Player profiles show pick-level support adjusted for slot, position, era, and observed career window; GM profiles connect those picks to the maturity-adjusted headline estimate.

Open adjusted player evidence Open adjusted GM evidence for Brandon Beane

Class value over time

Descriptive cumulative "value units" across all 256 picks, summed year-by-year. Value = games started + 5×Pro Bowl + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2 per player-season, then summed across the class. Earlier draft classes sit behind the highlighted 2018 line on the same seasons-since-draft axis, so the slope shows whether a class matured fast or needed time.

2018 class highlighted · 38 earlier classes behind it

Top 10 picks by career AV

Ordered by PFR weighted Approximate Value across the player's full career (any team).

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Career PB	Career AP1
1.7	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	Brandon Beane	111	128	4
1.32	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	110	116	4	3
1.8	Roquan Smith	ILB	CHI	Ryan Pace	84	69	4	3
3.70	Fred Warner	OLB	SF	John Lynch	82	121	4	4
1.1	Baker Mayfield	QB	CLE	John Dorsey	80	60	2
1.6	Quenton Nelson	G	IND	Chris Ballard	79	129	8	3
3.83	Orlando Brown Jr.	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	69	48	4
1.2	Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	Dave Gettleman	65	74	3	1
1.16	Tremaine Edmunds	ILB	BUF	Brandon Beane	62	74	2
1.11	Minkah Fitzpatrick	S	MIA	Chris Grier	61	32	5	3

Lower-AV early-round picks (rounds 1–2, AV < 15)

A descriptive filter for first- and second-round picks with full-career weighted AV below 15. It does not account for the expectation at each draft slot and is not a model verdict on the pick.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	AV	YoT
2.59	Derrius Guice	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	2	2
1.10	Josh Rosen	QB	ARI	Steve Keim	3	4
2.46	Breeland Speaks	DE	KC	Brett Veach	3	1
2.56	Duke Dawson	CB	NE	Bill Belichick	3	3
2.52	Kemoko Turay	OLB	IND	Chris Ballard	5	5
2.45	Josh Jackson	CB	GB	Brian Gutekunst	8	5
2.53	M.J. Stewart	CB	TB	Jason Licht	9	8
2.43	Kerryon Johnson	RB	DET	Bob Quinn	11	4
2.44	Dante Pettis	WR	SF	John Lynch	11	8
2.57	P.J. Hall	DT	LV	Reggie McKenzie	11	3

All picks (256) · sortable below

Each player name links to their year-by-year career page. Each team links to its GM history page.

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	GM	Career AV	Team GP	Team GS	Team PB	Team AP1
1.1	Baker Mayfield	QB	CLE	John Dorsey	80	60	59
1.2	Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	Dave Gettleman	65	74	74	2
1.3	Sam Darnold	QB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	49	38	38
1.4	Denzel Ward	CB	CLE	John Dorsey	49	110	107	5
1.5	Bradley Chubb	DE	DEN	John Elway	41	49	49	1
1.6	Quenton Nelson	G	IND	Chris Ballard	79	129	129	8	3
1.7	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	Brandon Beane	111	128	127	4
1.8	Roquan Smith	ILB	CHI	Ryan Pace	84	69	67
1.9	Mike McGlinchey	T	SF	John Lynch	46	69	69
1.10	Josh Rosen	QB	ARI	Steve Keim	3	14	13
1.11	Minkah Fitzpatrick	S	MIA	Chris Grier	61	32	27
1.12	Vita Vea	DT	TB	Jason Licht	51	112	107	2
1.13	Daron Payne	DT	WAS	Bruce Allen	53	130	124	1
1.14	Marcus Davenport	DE	NO	Mickey Loomis	22	63	32
1.15	Kolton Miller	T	LV	Reggie McKenzie	42	113	111
1.16	Tremaine Edmunds	ILB	BUF	Brandon Beane	62	74	74	1
1.17	Derwin James	S	LAC	Tom Telesco	46	98	98	5	1
1.18	Jaire Alexander	CB	GB	Brian Gutekunst	34	78	76	2
1.19	Leighton Vander Esch	OLB	DAL	Jerry Jones	35	71	65	1
1.20	Frank Ragnow	C	DET	Bob Quinn	51	96	96	4
1.21	Billy Price	C	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	18	42	19
1.22	Rashaan Evans	ILB	TEN	Jon Robinson	32	59	50
1.23	Isaiah Wynn	T	NE	Bill Belichick	23	43	40
1.24	D.J. Moore	WR	CAR	Marty Hurney	61	80	73
1.25	Hayden Hurst	TE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	17	28	4
1.26	Calvin Ridley	WR	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	41	49	35
1.27	Rashaad Penny	RB	SEA	John Schneider	13	42	11
1.28	Terrell Edmunds	S	PIT	Kevin Colbert	27	84	75
1.29	Taven Bryan	DT	JAX	David Caldwell	22	63	17
1.30	Mike Hughes	CB	MIN	Rick Spielman	17	24	7
1.31	Sony Michel	RB	NE	Bill Belichick	21	38	28
1.32	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	110	116	107	4	3
2.33	Austin Corbett	C	CLE	John Dorsey	29	14	1
2.34	Will Hernandez	G	NYG	Dave Gettleman	38	62	56
2.35	Nick Chubb	RB	CLE	John Dorsey	49	85	78	4
2.36	Shaquille Leonard	LB	IND	Chris Ballard	60	70	68		3
2.37	Braden Smith	G	IND	Chris Ballard	45	107	105
2.38	Ronald Jones II	RB	TB	Jason Licht	18	55	25
2.39	James Daniels	C	CHI	Ryan Pace	29	54	48
2.40	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	John Elway	45	115	98	2
2.41	Harold Landry	OLB	TEN	Jon Robinson	45	98	79	1
2.42	Mike Gesicki	TE	MIA	Chris Grier	28	81	31
2.43	Kerryon Johnson	RB	DET	Bob Quinn	11	34	16
2.44	Dante Pettis	WR	SF	John Lynch	11	28	12
2.45	Josh Jackson	CB	GB	Brian Gutekunst	8	42	15
2.46	Breeland Speaks	DE	KC	Brett Veach	3	16	4
2.47	Christian Kirk	WR	ARI	Steve Keim	42	56	41
2.48	Uchenna Nwosu	OLB	LAC	Tom Telesco	29	62	25
2.49	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	Howie Roseman	38	108	91
2.50	Connor Williams	T	DAL	Jerry Jones	34	57	51
2.51	Anthony Miller	WR	CHI	Ryan Pace	12	47	17
2.52	Kemoko Turay	OLB	IND	Chris Ballard	5	38	3
2.53	M.J. Stewart	CB	TB	Jason Licht	9	21	6
2.54	Jessie Bates III	S	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	55	79	79
2.55	Donte Jackson	CB	CAR	Marty Hurney	34	80	76
2.56	Duke Dawson	CB	NE	Bill Belichick	3	0	0
2.57	P.J. Hall	DT	LV	Reggie McKenzie	11	30	18
2.58	Isaiah Oliver	CB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	18	62	38
2.59	Derrius Guice	RB	WAS	Bruce Allen	2	5	1
2.60	James Washington	WR	PIT	Kevin Colbert	11	60	25
2.61	DJ Chark	WR	JAX	David Caldwell	21	43	30
2.62	Brian O'Neill	T	MIN	Rick Spielman	56	124	120	2
2.63	Carlton Davis	CB	TB	Jason Licht	34	76	75
2.64	Tyquan Lewis	DE	IND	Chris Ballard	13	88	20
3.65	Brandon Parker	T	LV	Reggie McKenzie	15	59	33
3.66	Lorenzo Carter	DE	NYG	Dave Gettleman	30	49	33
3.67	Chad Thomas	DE	CLE	John Dorsey	5	20	8
3.68	Justin Reid	S	HOU	Brian Gaine	34	57	53
3.69	B.J. Hill	DT	NYG	Dave Gettleman	37	48	17
3.70	Fred Warner	OLB	SF	John Lynch	82	121	121	4	4
3.71	Royce Freeman	RB	DEN	John Elway	13	46	8
3.72	Nathan Shepherd	DT	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	25	73	12
3.73	Jerome Baker	OLB	MIA	Chris Grier	39	94	82
3.74	Geron Christian	T	WAS	Bruce Allen	12	24	8
3.75	Derrick Nnadi	DT	KC	Brett Veach	38	130	98
3.76	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	Kevin Colbert	10	26	14
3.77	Sam Hubbard	DE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	40	104	88
3.78	Malik Jefferson	OLB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	3	12	0
3.79	Rasheem Green	DT	SEA	John Schneider	17	53	24
3.80	Martinas Rankin	T	HOU	Brian Gaine	7	16	4
3.81	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	Jerry Jones	30	86	67
3.82	Tracy Walker	S	DET	Bob Quinn	13	79	43
3.83	Orlando Brown Jr.	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	69	48	42	2
3.84	Justin Jones	DT	LAC	Tom Telesco	30	51	35
3.85	Rashaan Gaulden	CB	CAR	Marty Hurney	1	24	0
3.86	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	51	121	66	3	1
3.87	Arden Key	DE	LV	Reggie McKenzie	24	37	10
3.88	Oren Burks	ILB	GB	Brian Gutekunst	16	59	7
3.89	Joseph Noteboom	T	LAR	Les Snead	18	71	35
3.90	Deadrin Senat	DT	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	4	22	2
3.91	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	NO	Mickey Loomis	15	66	35
3.92	Chukwuma Okorafor	T	PIT	Kevin Colbert	26	77	59
3.93	Ronnie Harrison	S	JAX	David Caldwell	21	28	22
3.94	Alex Cappa	T	TB	Jason Licht	44	52	46
3.95	Tarvarius Moore	S	SF	John Lynch	8	61	13
3.96	Harrison Phillips	DT	BUF	Brandon Beane	35	45	11
3.97	Mason Cole	C	ARI	Steve Keim	25	46	32
3.98	Jordan Akins	TE	HOU	Brian Gaine	16	73	26
3.99	Isaac Yiadom	CB	DEN	John Elway	16	29	9
3.100	Dorian O'Daniel	OLB	KC	Brett Veach	5	58	1
4.101	Ian Thomas	TE	CAR	Marty Hurney	8	99	54
4.102	Jalyn Holmes	DE	MIN	Rick Spielman	8	25	9
4.103	Keke Coutee	WR	HOU	Brian Gaine	7	23	10
4.104	Nyheim Hines	RB	IND	Chris Ballard	25	72	16
4.105	Antonio Callaway	WR	CLE	John Dorsey	5	20	13
4.106	Josey Jewell	ILB	DEN	John Elway	32	78	58
4.107	Chris Herndon	TE	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	6	33	25
4.108	Kyle Lauletta	QB	NYG	Dave Gettleman	0	2	0
4.109	Troy Apke	S	WAS	Bruce Allen	6	52	9
4.110	Nick Nelson	CB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	1	12	3
4.111	Brian Allen	C	LAR	Les Snead	16	50	32
4.112	Mark Walton	RB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	3	14	0
4.113	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	DEN	John Elway	6	46	9
4.114	Da'Shawn Hand	DE	DET	Bob Quinn	16	29	11
4.115	Joel Iyiegbuniwe	LB	CHI	Ryan Pace	5	58	0
4.116	Dorance Armstrong Jr.	DE	DAL	Jerry Jones	22	93	14
4.117	Jordan Whitehead	S	TB	Jason Licht	32	71	67
4.118	Anthony Averett	CB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	11	44	21
4.119	Kyzir White	S	LAC	Tom Telesco	31	47	37
4.120	Will Dissly	TE	SEA	John Schneider	16	72	65
4.121	Taron Johnson	CB	BUF	Brandon Beane	36	113	87
4.122	Kenny Young	LB	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	18	21	6
4.123	Durham Smythe	TE	MIA	Chris Grier	10	112	74
4.124	Armani Watts	S	KC	Brett Veach	3	53	1
4.125	Avonte Maddox	CB	PHI	Howie Roseman	17	81	41
4.126	Ito Smith	RB	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	6	35	0
4.127	Rick Leonard	T	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	0	0
4.128	Kentavius Street	DT	SF	John Lynch	11	35	4
4.129	Will Richardson	T	JAX	David Caldwell	4	44	5
4.130	Josh Sweat	DE	PHI	Howie Roseman	37	104	64	1
4.131	Kalen Ballage	RB	MIA	Chris Grier	6	24	6
4.132	Jaleel Scott	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	3	0
4.133	J'Mon Moore	WR	GB	Brian Gutekunst	0	12	0
4.134	Chase Edmonds	RB	ARI	Steve Keim	21	57	15
4.135	John Franklin-Myers	DE	LAR	Les Snead	38	16	0
4.136	Marquis Haynes	OLB	CAR	Marty Hurney	7	73	3
4.137	Dalton Schultz	TE	DAL	Jerry Jones	30	75	51
5.138	Cole Madison	G	GB	Brian Gutekunst	0	0	0
5.139	R.J. McIntosh	DT	NYG	Dave Gettleman	1	18	0
5.140	Maurice Hurst Jr.	DT	LV	Reggie McKenzie	11	40	17
5.141	Shaquem Griffin	OLB	SEA	John Schneider	4	46	1
5.142	D.J. Reed	CB	SF	John Lynch	27	31	2
5.143	Ja'Whaun Bentley	ILB	NE	Bill Belichick	36	83	68
5.144	Justin Watson	WR	TB	Jason Licht	11	40	4
5.145	Bilal Nichols	DT	CHI	Ryan Pace	37	60	49
5.146	Tre Flowers	S	SEA	John Schneider	19	47	40
5.147	Micah Kiser	ILB	LAR	Les Snead	8	26	9
5.148	Marcus Allen	S	PIT	Kevin Colbert	6	48	3
5.149	Michael Dickson	P	SEA	John Schneider	20	133	0	1	1
5.150	Genard Avery	LB	CLE	John Dorsey	11	18	5
5.151	Davontae Harris	CB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	5	3	0
5.152	Dane Cruikshank	CB	TEN	Jon Robinson	4	46	4
5.153	Tyrell Crosby	T	DET	Bob Quinn	11	38	18
5.154	Siran Neal	CB	BUF	Brandon Beane	7	97	1
5.155	Scott Quessenberry	C	LAC	Tom Telesco	13	63	10
5.156	Troy Fumagalli	TE	DEN	John Elway	1	19	5
5.157	Tyler Conklin	TE	MIN	Rick Spielman	20	64	21
5.158	Andrew Brown	DE	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	2	18	1
5.159	Daurice Fountain	WR	IND	Chris Ballard	0	6	0
5.160	Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	DE	LAR	Les Snead	12	33	0
5.161	Jermaine Carter Jr.	LB	CAR	Marty Hurney	15	65	30
5.162	Jordan Lasley	WR	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	0	0	0
5.163	Tim Settle	DT	WAS	Bruce Allen	20	63	2
5.164	Natrell Jamerson	S	NO	Mickey Loomis	1	0	0
5.165	Jaylen Samuels	TE	PIT	Kevin Colbert	7	42	8
5.166	Wyatt Teller	G	BUF	Brandon Beane	39	8	7
5.167	Daniel Carlson	K	MIN	Rick Spielman	23	2	0
5.168	Jamarco Jones	T	SEA	John Schneider	7	36	7
5.169	Jordan Wilkins	RB	IND	Chris Ballard	8	53	4
5.170	Darius Phillips	CB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	7	47	10
5.171	Mike White	QB	DAL	Jerry Jones	5	0	0
5.172	JK Scott	P	GB	Brian Gutekunst	13	48	0
5.173	Johnny Townsend	P	LV	Reggie McKenzie	2	16	0
5.174	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	GB	Brian Gutekunst	29	59	39
6.175	Damion Ratley	WR	CLE	John Dorsey	4	26	6
6.176	John Kelly	RB	LAR	Les Snead	1	8	0
6.177	Duke Ejiofor	DE	HOU	Brian Gaine	1	12	0
6.178	Christian Sam	ILB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
6.179	Parry Nickerson	CB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	2	16	2
6.180	Folorunso Fatukasi	DT	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	27	45	23
6.181	Kylie Fitts	DE	CHI	Ryan Pace	1	6	0
6.182	Christian Campbell	CB	ARI	Steve Keim	0	0	0
6.183	Sam Jones	G	DEN	John Elway	0	5	0
6.184	Marcell Harris	S	SF	John Lynch	14	52	20
6.185	Deon Cain	WR	IND	Chris Ballard	1	7	3
6.186	Jacob Martin	LB	SEA	John Schneider	17	16	0
6.187	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	BUF	Brandon Beane	14	10	1
6.188	Simeon Thomas	CB	CLE	John Dorsey	1	0	0
6.189	Kamrin Moore	CB	NO	Mickey Loomis	0	0	0
6.190	DeShon Elliott	S	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	25	28	22
6.191	Dylan Cantrell	WR	LAC	Tom Telesco	0	0	0
6.192	Jamil Demby	T	LAR	Les Snead	1	6	1
6.193	Chris Covington	LB	DAL	Jerry Jones	0	8	0
6.194	Russell Gage	WR	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	20	61	21
6.195	Sebastian Joseph-Day	DT	LAR	Les Snead	38	39	38
6.196	Tremon Smith	WR	KC	Brett Veach	8	15	1
6.197	Shaun Dion Hamilton	LB	WAS	Bruce Allen	8	46	7
6.198	Kahlil McKenzie	DT	KC	Brett Veach	1	0	0
6.199	Luke Falk	QB	TEN	Jon Robinson	1	0	0
6.200	Foyesade Oluokun	S	ATL	Thomas Dimitroff	44	64	41
6.201	Boston Scott	RB	NO	Mickey Loomis	11	0	0
6.202	Jack Cichy	ILB	TB	Jason Licht	0	16	0
6.203	Tanner Lee	QB	JAX	David Caldwell	0	0	0
6.204	Trenton Cannon	RB	NYJ	Mike Maccagnan	2	20	0
6.205	Trevon Young	DE	LAR	Les Snead	0	2	0
6.206	Matt Pryor	T	PHI	Howie Roseman	19	44	11
6.207	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	GB	Brian Gutekunst	8	37	10
6.208	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	DAL	Jerry Jones	11	38	4
6.209	Cornell Armstrong	CB	MIA	Chris Grier	3	18	0
6.210	Braxton Berrios	WR	NE	Bill Belichick	11	0	0
6.211	Jordan Thomas	TE	HOU	Brian Gaine	2	21	12
6.212	Greg Senat	T	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	1	0	0
6.213	Colby Gossett	G	MIN	Rick Spielman	4	0	0
6.214	Peter Kalambayi	LB	HOU	Brian Gaine	3	41	0
6.215	Bradley Bozeman	C	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	41	62	49
6.216	Azeem Victor	LB	LV	Reggie McKenzie	0	0	0
6.217	Keishawn Bierria	ILB	DEN	John Elway	1	20	0
6.218	Ade Aruna	DE	MIN	Rick Spielman	0	0	0
7.219	Danny Etling	QB	NE	Bill Belichick	0	0	0
7.220	Alex McGough	QB	SEA	John Schneider	0	0	0
7.221	Matthew Adams	LB	IND	Chris Ballard	14	58	9
7.222	Jermaine Kelly	CB	HOU	Brian Gaine	0	0	0
7.223	Jullian Taylor	DT	SF	John Lynch	1	12	0
7.224	Javon Wims	WR	CHI	Ryan Pace	1	33	7
7.225	Devante Downs	LB	MIN	Rick Spielman	6	13	0
7.226	David Williams	RB	DEN	John Elway	0	0	0
7.227	Quentin Poling	LB	MIA	Chris Grier	0	0	0
7.228	Marcell Ateman	WR	LV	Reggie McKenzie	2	19	6
7.229	Jason Sanders	K	MIA	Chris Grier	23	116	0		1
7.230	Leon Jacobs	OLB	JAX	David Caldwell	7	29	12
7.231	Travin Howard	OLB	LAR	Les Snead	3	29	2
7.232	James Looney	DE	GB	Brian Gutekunst	0	3	0
7.233	Jordan Mailata	T	PHI	Howie Roseman	41	90	85
7.234	Andre Smith	ILB	CAR	Marty Hurney	6	19	0
7.235	Zaire Franklin	LB	IND	Chris Ballard	40	132	82	1
7.236	Bo Scarbrough	RB	DAL	Jerry Jones	2	0	0
7.237	Nick Bawden	RB	DET	Bob Quinn	0	10	2
7.238	Zach Sieler	DE	BAL	Ozzie Newsome	38	6	0
7.239	Hunter Bradley	LS	GB	Brian Gutekunst	3	56	0
7.240	Richie James	WR	SF	John Lynch	13	40	10
7.241	Greg Stroman	CB	WAS	Bruce Allen	4	20	3
7.242	Kendrick Norton	DT	CAR	Marty Hurney	0	0	0
7.243	Keion Crossen	CB	NE	Bill Belichick	6	11	0
7.244	Justin Lawler	DE	LAR	Les Snead	1	19	0
7.245	Will Clapp	C	NO	Mickey Loomis	12	34	7
7.246	Joshua Frazier	DT	PIT	Kevin Colbert	0	0	0
7.247	Logan Cooke	P	JAX	David Caldwell	19	129	0	1
7.248	Kendall Donnerson	OLB	GB	Brian Gutekunst	0	0	0
7.249	Logan Woodside	QB	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
7.250	Ryan Izzo	TE	NE	Bill Belichick	3	18	16
7.251	Justin Jackson	RB	LAC	Tom Telesco	12	43	7
7.252	Rod Taylor	G	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	0	0	0
7.253	Auden Tate	WR	CIN	Mike Brown / Duke Tobin	5	35	12
7.254	Korey Cunningham	T	ARI	Steve Keim	4	6	6
7.255	Austin Proehl	WR	BUF	Brandon Beane	0	0	0
7.256	Trey Quinn	WR	WAS	Bruce Allen	2	15	8

How to read this

"Value units" on the chart is a deliberately simple proxy: per player-season, games-started + 5×PB + 10×AP1 + 3×AP2. It's not a dollar value or θ; it's a single growth-curve number that lets us watch the class mature.
Pre-2013 picks have no per-game snap data → their games-started is approximated from career_games / years-on-team. Their on-chart contribution is dominated by honors.
Career AV is PFR's weighted Approximate Value (full-career, any team).
"On-team" honors only: PB/AP1/AP2 counts above are restricted to seasons on the drafting team. A player traded after Year 4 only gets credit for honors earned in years 1-4.
Active careers still accreting value: this year's chart endpoint isn't the final answer for any class with active players.